I think Beijing has established a red line and both sides know what it is. It seems like at the moment, there is no interest on either side to destablize and break status quo. And all the recent polls suggest that Taiwanese people prefer status quo.
China Geopolitical News Thread
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I think Beijing has established a red line and both sides know what it is. It seems like at the moment, there is no interest on either side to destablize and break status quo. And all the recent polls suggest that Taiwanese people prefer status quo.
Exactly.
Having visited the ROC on numerous occasions, and some of those visits extending for many weeks, I can confirm this.
The absolute majority are not interested in unification into a one party CCP system. But the absolute majority also does not wish to antagonize the PRC into precipitous action.
I believe the status quo will hold for the foreseeable future short of something very foolish on one side or the other....or, short of the PRC liberalizing into a true multi-party system.
Skywatcher
Captain
It sounds like Cole (there's a reason why he's pretty much unemployable in his former profession) wanted the U.S. to say it'll defend the ROC in the event of declaring independence, hence that "clarity" remark (note how he went out of his way to avoid stating the "why" of the invasion), but even he knew how insane that sounds.
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As things stand now across Taiwan Strait, it's very difficult to imagine mainland China would use force to invade or unify Taiwan, barring some unexpected and unforeseen circumstances. Unification is the only acceptable outcome by the vast majority of Chinese people, but you don't and shouldn't achieve unification by force.
Most mainland Chinese consider Taiwanese compatriots and there is no deep-seated hatred across the Taiwan Straits. Growing Chinese wealth and power actually give China confidence and patience and make the war even less likely. The geographical, historical, ethnic and cultural as well as more recent economic and social links between the two are too strong to allow Taiwan to choose its own destiny separate from China.
While much have been made of some cold and dry statistics such as 40% of Taiwan's exports are to China, by far its largest market, over one million Taiwanese live and reside in China, or polls after polls says majority of Taiwanese prefer status quo versus unification, they hardly give people a good grasp of what's going on between Taiwan and mainland China. The following are some more interesting facts/figures/anecdotes that collectively paint a much more lively and real picture of the across-strait relationship:
1. Currently there are over 800 direct flights between Taiwan and 20+ mainland cities a week. There were none merely six years ago. In 2013, more than 2,850,0000 mainland Chinese visited Taiwan, a record, after Taiwan government started gradually accepting mainland tourists, with caps on daily maximum numbers. MOre Taiwanese visit mainland a year.
2. In 2012, the most recent figures available, four out of the ten top-paying cities at Taobao, the largest Chinese eCommerce site owned by Alibaba, are Taiwanese cities with Chiayi at No 1, Kaohsiung at No 3, Taichung at No 7 and Tainan at No 9. The bigger mainland cities Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen are at No's 4, 6, 8, respectively. The funny thing is, since most Taobao vendors offer free domestic shipping compared to charging fees on overseas shipping, many Taiwan buyers fill their addresses as "Taiwan province" causing much consternation among hard-line Taiwan independence supporters.
3. Xiaomi smartphones have become quite popular in Taiwan, with customer lining up to snatch the phones. The interesting thing to note is that many key component suppliers and the final assemblers are Taiwanese (operated in mainland or Taiwan), but the phones are designed and branded in Beijing. China's WeChat and Weibo are also quite popular among Taiwanese, to the point that some Taiwanese websites frequently list them on their "Share to" links.
4. Some mainland TV series become top viewing popular shows in Taiwan. Mainland entertainment programs have attracted large audience and followers in Taiwan - e.g., I'M A Singer where quite a few singers from Taiwan won the top awards and Taiwanese cheered and cried for their favorite contestants, calling for fairness and unfairness of the contest. All told: deeply and emotionally involved.
So what do all these mean when putting together? Well, Taiwan is integrated into China gradually and increasingly falls into China's orbit. If, twenty years ago, Taiwanese came to the mainland with wealth, technology and soft-power that the mainlanders looked up to, today, the influence is mutual and is increasingly shifting to mainland's favor.
The video clip below is from a popular Taiwan talk show; the guests were discussing the "invasion" of China's products, software and pop culture:
(Apology for the non-Chinese speakers here. The discussion is in Chinese. The guests basically talk about what I summarize above: Taobao, WeChat, I'M A SINGER and their implications for Taiwan. They're obviously "shocked and awed.")
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Again some in the world think they can get China to undermine itself. I'm sure Obama and Kerry pitched this as for in the world's best interests. Translation... the US doesn't have to give up anything in exchange for China's cooperation. Before, all pundits were thinking of doing was a Cold War tactic but instead on China with Russia in a role-reversal. Now China is suppose to help them get back on track. What made them in the first place think Russia would be more cooperative in general? Given all of Obama's foreign policy headaches in general exploding all at once occupying his sleepless nights these days having nothing to do with China is sort of karmic.
The thing is that it's not in China's self-interest to support sanctions on Russia. It's in China's interest for Russia to keep antagonizing Western countries and assert itself, because resulting sanctions will only give China more leverage in bilateral negotiations. And China has used that to great advantage. I don't think Obama/Kerry expect China to support sanctions, but must do it for public show.
shen
Senior Member
One thing the US can do that would probably get China to join the sanction is publicly renounce the Taiwan Relation Act. Right now, US is doing to China exactly what it is accusing of Russia doing to Ukraine, ie, arming a territory which it publicly admit is and is internationally recognized as part of another sovereign state.
SamuraiBlue
Captain
This part is debatable since according to the San Francisco peace treaty Japan merely renounced territorial sovereignty over Taiwan not returned sovereignty. Second PRC is not a signatory of SF peace treaty so PRC does not have recognition of any claim within the treaty. Lastly ROC was the first to occupy the island after Japan renounced the territory so based on first claim ROC has stronger claim then PRC.
china has an independent foreign policy and they are generally against economic sanctions. on the contrary they like to do business and trade with all nations in the world because they are the most pragmatic and progressive when it comes to pursuing their national interest. they actively trade with all nations, from superpower democracies to little tin pot dicatorships, rich modern first world countries to poor backward third world nations, with friends and allies of the united states to enemies of the united states. it is not in china's interest to support ANY SANCTIONS initiated by the united states whether it's against Russia or not. if the united states and Europe want to initiate economic sanctions against a particular country, then by all means go ahead and do it but the Chinese would tell them they don't play that game.
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China might well judge that it is what they should do anyway and that they would deserve no more than a mild applause and not an extravagant bonus.
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