China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

[Blitzo]

The J-11BG can carry the PL-10, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the PL-15 to be integrated with the same upgrade package. Given that the entire upgrade program seems to be focused on extending its BVR capabilities - with the AESA and whatnot - I can't see a reason why they would forgo the only missile capable of realizing that updated BVR capability.

Negative.
Modern SRAAMs like PL-10 (or indeed other global modern SRAAMs) tend to have far less demanding avionics compatibility issues relative to prior generation SRAAMs, than new generation BVRAAMs do versus prior generation BVRAAMs.

The guidance/cuing for SRAAMs are far more permissive than for BVRAAMs.
E.g. we've even seen J-10A carrying PL-10...


As for why they would forgo giving J-11BG PL-15 despite having an AESA -- there are actually many plausible answers:
- the J-11BG's AESA upgrade is not as extensive or as sophisticated as that on J-16 or J-10C etc
- J-11BG may lack other avionics upgrades necessary to allow it to utilize PL-15

Multiple years ago we were told that the J-11BG upgrade is not very extensive, so it's entirely within reason that it didn't have whatever upgrades necessary to utilize PL-15.


Now -- as I've repeatedly written, I'm not definitively saying J-11BG is incapable of utilizing PL-15.
However, based on current (lack of) visual evidence and past rumours, I think the most reasonable position on the matter is as follows:

"It is unknown if J-11BG is compatible with PL-15 or not; there is equal reasonable likelihood that it is compatible, and equal reasonable likelihood that it is not compatible".

Anyone arguing definitively for one way or the other is pushing their luck.

If we use visual evidence then no, since we’ve literally never seen any BG carrying PL-15.

Yup, that's my point.

We have yet to see any BG carrying PL-15 over all these years of service, and we have had noise from credible folks in the grapevine from past years that BG is a meaningfully less ambitious/sophisticated upgrade in capability compared to say J-16/J-10C, therefore we are obliged to treat the possibility that J-11BG may simply not have compatibility with PL-15.

 

[vincent]

The J-11BG can carry the PL-10, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the PL-15 to be integrated with the same upgrade package. Given that the entire upgrade program seems to be focused on extending its BVR capabilities - with the AESA and whatnot - I can't see a reason why they would forgo the only missile capable of realizing that updated BVR capability.

Pointless if the upgraded radar has only 100km detection range. The ability to see must match the ability to shoot.

 

[siegecrossbow]

The J-11BG can carry the PL-10, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the PL-15 to be integrated with the same upgrade package. Given that the entire upgrade program seems to be focused on extending its BVR capabilities - with the AESA and whatnot - I can't see a reason why they would forgo the only missile capable of realizing that updated BVR capability.

Ability to carry IR missile and ability to carry BVR missile are not the same, with the latter being far more difficult since you need integration with fire control radar.

There is technically one solution though, it is even offered by AVIC for export — there is a hard point that allows for integration of Chinese munitions. Theoretically it could be plumbed for Chinese BVR.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Pointless if the upgraded radar has only 100km detection range. The ability to see must match the ability to shoot.

Not necessarily. Yes, without it part of the potential is lost - but ultimately datalinks exist, and so do non-cooperative targets.
There are good and very succesful examples when missiles are longer ranged than fighter radars...

 

[sequ]

If no PL-15 for J-11BG then I understand that as an equivalent of the F-15 with AN/APG-63(V)2. Dedicated towards cruisemissile defence using mainly PL-12.

 

[Deino]

Sorry for being late on this discussion and I must admit even if it is indeed strange that we haven't seen a PL-15 on a J-11BG but the fact we saw one first on a regular J-11B and so the BG should use it too is IMO a bit off, since it was seen in May 2015 on a J-11B assigned to the then "Special Missile Testing Unit" (SMTU), which likely used not plain regular J-11B but modified ones.

posted in May 2015!


Similar we have seen a "regular" J-11B likely carrying a PL-17 in 2016 and I'm at least pretty sure no-one claims, regular J-11B use the PL-17 operationally.

 

[mack8]

Pointless if the upgraded radar has only 100km detection range. The ability to see must match the ability to shoot.

I think it's pretty sure the JF-17 Blk. 3 that has PL-15 could not to be able to fully exploit PL-15s long range on it's own, but in the era of cooperative targeting this is made possible.

Again, i'll point to the J-15 scenario, we've been wondering about PL-15 for years until PLANAF indulged us last year, likely PL-15 was there on day 1 at least for J-15T. So me i'm sure J-11BG could carry and fire it too, it's the logical, competent thing to do from PLAAF, we just have to wait for public release. It is also somewhat encouraging that apparently the BG upgrade started with early airframes so this might mean the whole fleet will be upgraded.

 

[Blitzo]

Again, i'll point to the J-15 scenario, we've been wondering about PL-15 for years until PLANAF indulged us last year, likely PL-15 was there on day 1 at least for J-15T. So me i'm sure J-11BG could carry and fire it too, it's the logical, competent thing to do from PLAAF, we just have to wait for public release. It is also somewhat encouraging that apparently the BG upgrade started with early airframes so this might mean the whole fleet will be upgraded.

No.

J-15T first emerged in late 2024 in an operational state, and by mid 2025 we had confirmation of J-15T carrying PL-15 at the parade.
On the other hand, J-11BG has been in operational service for nearly 6 years now, and we have yet to see them carry PL-15.


At best, it means "J-11BG might be compatible PL-15 but we have yet to see it" -- but that needs to be paired with the equally possible reality that "J-11BG is not compatible with PL-15".

We cannot in good standing suggest the idea that "we are sure J-11BG can carry and fire" PL-15 after 6 years of this aircraft in service and not one image of a J-11BG with PL-15.
We are obliged to recognize that J-11BG may or may not be compatible with PL-15, and that both possibilities are equally viable, rather than to suggest that PL-15 is a sure thing or an inevitable feature.


As for logic; it is as equally logical for J-11BG to not be able to accommodate PL-15, as it is equally logical for J-11BG to be able to accommodate PL-15.
We should not assume the "better" or "more capable" option is the more likely one.

 

[plawolf]

Pointless if the upgraded radar has only 100km detection range. The ability to see must match the ability to shoot.

But increased range isn’t the only, or potentially even the biggest advantage of the PL15 over the PL12. There will be a whole host of other upgrades, advancements and whole new capabilities that the PL15 have that the PL12 simply doesn’t, which in cumulation, or potentially even significant new capabilities in isolation, could justify the upgrade to PL15 even if you can’t fully exploit its full range.

With the prevalence of CoE both within the PLAAF and even cross services between PLAAF and PLAN, the radar range of the carrying fighter is really an increasingly irrelevant element in the PLA’s future air combat vision.

Indeed, I would go as far as to say that addition PL15 and other next gen weapons carriage capabilities would be a higher priority task for any radar upgrade or modernisation effort (for basically any aircraft, but the J11 especially given its huge range and load carrying potential) that just boosting the raw radar performance itself.

For the role and battlespace the J11BG can expect to operate in for the majority of time, as second line defence sweepers deep within friendly sensor networks, their own radar performance is really the least important and relevant performance metric to them performance their assigned task. It’s the very definition of a situation where good enough is good enough.

The main reason I think the J11BG might end up with a surprisingly good radar after the upgrade would be due to logistical considerations and economy of scale. That it would be easier on logistics and potentially cheaper even on the long run to standardised to fewer different radar types across the Sino-flanker fleet such that you benefit from much reduced procurement and operating costs across the fleet even if the individual radars themselves are much more expensive than an alternative model. Using the same radar will also massively future proof the upgrade, as any future new weapon integration will be much smoother.

Additionally, the operational benefits from ground crew training being simplified and more importantly, pilots being able to more easily switch between different platforms and work more effectively with other aircraft types will be invaluable in real world combat operations where attrition and combat losses are massively real and massively important considerations.