China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

[siegecrossbow]

China deploy J-11BG and BS in Falcon Strike 2024?

Has done so in 2023 as well.

 

[A.Man]

China deploy J-11BG and BS in Falcon Strike 2024?

Did China transfer the J-11BHG's, J-11SH to PLAAF? These fighters have Chinese Naval Aviation Marks.

 

[Maikeru]

Do we have a handle on current J-16 production rates? There seem to be a lot of Brigades converting to J-16 recently, e.g. 83rd trading in its JH-7As, more than would be expected from the rumoured 40-50 per annum rate.

Edit: This article claims 100pa (with 40 J-10C and 100+ J-20):

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[sunnymaxi]

Do we have a handle on current J-16 production rates? There seem to be a lot of Brigades converting to J-16 recently, e.g. 83rd trading in its JH-7As, more than would be expected from the rumoured 40-50 per annum rate.

Edit: This article claims 100pa (with 40 J-10C and 100+ J-20):

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40 J-10C ?? i think you mean J-16 ..

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

40 J-10C ?? i think you mean J-16 ..

From the article, quoting Daniel Rice:

"The J-16, a multi-role fighter, has more than 100 airframes produced annually, while the J-10’s production is around less than 40 airframes per year."

In addition, he claimed that:

“They have different mission sets and capabilities”

“We like to say that the J-20 is roughly a 4.5-generation aircraft because there are different definitions of ‘generations’ between China and the U.S.”

So Rice didn't just confused between J-10C, J-16 and J-20, but also fighter generations (or maybe he's just doing so to taper down PLAAF capabilities).

 

[Deino]

Do we have a handle on current J-16 production rates? There seem to be a lot of Brigades converting to J-16 recently, e.g. 83rd trading in its JH-7As, more than would be expected from the rumoured 40-50 per annum rate.

Edit: This article claims 100pa (with 40 J-10C and 100+ J-20):

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In fact I highly question these numbers ... for the J-20 it is a different discussion, but for both the J-10C & J-16 the numbers are IMO much too high!

I know, we always must remember that we have in fact too little information and often the images we get are not recent, but at least (for me) it fits:

For the J-16 we saw Batch 11 in October 2022, Batch 12 in May 2024 and Batch 13 in August 2024.
Even more each batch has most likely only 24 aircraft each.

So IMO there are in fact not 40 per year but only one J-16 batch per year aka 24 and a few additional J-16D.

For the J-10C it looks similar, we saw Batch 07 in February 2022 - in parallel to J-10CE Batch 01 -, Batch 08 in November 2023 and Batch 09 isn't confirmed yet in 2024. Also, each batch has most likely only 24-30 aircraft each.

But these are just my numbers.

 

[gelgoog]

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“The J-20 is now being produced at over roughly 100 airframes per year,” Daniel Rice,
...
“That’s purely for indigenous consumption, for supplying the PLA Air Force with J-20 airframes. If you look at production capacity, the F-35, roughly 135 airframes per year, but 60 to 70 of those airframes are going to allies and partners.”
Rice noted, though, that the J-20 and F-35 should not be compared one-to-one.
“They have different mission sets and capabilities,” Rice added. “We like to say that the J-20 is roughly a 4.5-generation aircraft because there are different definitions of ‘generations’ between China and the U.S.”

Such baloney. The J-20 has better sensors than either the F-22 or F-35. It has more powerful flight computers as well.
The only thing it is behind is the engine. And that is only until WS-15 becomes available.

This quality-versus-quantity assessment also comes into play when comparing the naval fleets of the two countries, as experts argue that while China may have more ships and submarines, the tonnage of America’s naval fleet surpasses that of China by a 2-to-1 ratio due to the larger size of U.S. vessels.

Most of those US ships use much older electronics systems. The bulk of it was built in the late Cold War period. While the bulk of the Chinese fleet was built over the past 15 years. And history has typically favored the more numerous fleet fighting closest to its own shores. The Battle of Tsushima is a good example of this.

On the air side, China is accelerating its production of the J-16, J-10, and its sea variants as well. The J-16, a multi-role fighter, has more than 100 airframes produced annually, while the J-10’s production is around less than 40 airframes per year. But again, the J-10C is not quite the USAF’s F-15EX, and is rather “the low-end, or high-low mix of that version,” Rice said.

How many F-15EX aircraft does the US have? Not even half a dozen. How many J-16s does China have? I rest my case.
The bulk of the US fleet is made of obsolete F-16 fighters which could not hold a candle against the J-10C.

Yet, if production rate increases as anticipated, China may surpass the U.S. in producing their latest fighter aircraft. Rice noted that China’s development of an indigenous engine and reduced reliance on Russian-built engines have accelerated their combat aircraft production.

China produces many times over the number of modern fighters with AESA radars. And most of them are twin engines. If China focused their production on single engine aircraft like the US has been doing then the comparison would be even more lopsided.

While the U.S. is set to retain its long-range superiority, China’s regional dominance carries strategic concerns, especially in a scenario where it attempts to take Taiwan by force.

"Retain" "long-range superiority". The country which uses aircraft with poor internal fuel range, dependent on a vulnerable tanker fleet, and using lackluster ranged anti-air missiles.

“China doesn’t need tankers, because it just doesn’t have to go that far,” J. Michael Dahm of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “China doesn’t need a Global Hawk that can fly for over 24 hours. It may just need drones, retro-fitted, older aircraft that can fly 100 miles across the Taiwan Strait on a one-way trip.”

And yet China operates longer ranged fighter aircraft.

 

[johncliu88]

It looks like a CG.

 

[siegecrossbow]

From the article, quoting Daniel Rice:


In addition, he claimed that:



So Rice didn't just confused between J-10C, J-16 and J-20, but also fighter generations (or maybe he's just doing so to taper down PLAAF capabilities).

This doesn’t even make any sense. The Chinese definition for fighter generation, or at least the one before 2020, is one level below that of the US one so that Chinese 4th gen is the same as US fifth gen. For his argument to work China has to claim that the J20 is a 3.5th gen fighter, which has not happened ever.

 

[Blitzo]

It looks like a CG.
View attachment 135566

Can you please stop posting random pictures that are lacking in recent relevance or justification?

Occasional posting of old pictures that are exceptional in quality is okay, but when the bulk of your posting are old pictures lacking in distinctive features it becomes very jarring for the purposes of a thread which is ideally to allow for relevant and up to date discussions, news or images