China Flanker Thread II

[KYli]

Things like that can be resolved by getting quality control specialists and manufacturing experts to help with production systems, so adding a new production line in itself isn't the necessary element.

The AL31 production line if it had added would be a few years earlier than the WS10's line.

There's no guarantee that if the Chinese did get the license for the AL-31 they would be able to successfully produce it.

That is the whole point of manufacturing the AL31. If they failed to successfully produce AL31 initially such as they did for the SU27, the Russians would assist them and point out what they did wrong. For WS10, the manufactory refused to admit their shortcomings which prolonged the the process of fixing the problem. They can claim design flaws with WS10 but not AL31.

Manufacturing and quality control problems have a lot more to do with the facilities and small scale management of products, which are much harder to control for, and which you simply can't just buy.

For a matured product such as the AL31, its manufacturing procedures would minimize the product deficiency. Therefore, it is much easier to pinpoint the problem.

It is more or less the attitude of the manufactory and its employees. If they are not so reluctant to admit their problems and use their influence to undermine the enactment of correction measures, then of course license production of AL31 might not be necessary.

 

[Hyperwarp]

To begin with, we need to clarify how the Sukhoi organization works. Its not like Boeing or Lockheed.

Sukhoi, and so is MiG, are design bureaus. This means they're a company whose main product is brain work. If you're familiar with Silicon Valley, many companies are this way. IP companies with no manufacturing...

You mean like Like a Fabless technology/semiconductor company?

Actually sounds a bit like ARM Holdings licensing ARM architecture - Snapdragon (Qualcomm), Tegra (nVIDIA), A4 (Apple) etc, etc

 

[Deino]

....

Simply THANKs a lot, that made my day ... a alot much clearer !

Deino

 

[crobato]

You mean like Like a Fabless technology/semiconductor company?

Actually sounds a bit like ARM Holdings licensing ARM architecture - Snapdragon (Qualcomm), Tegra (nVIDIA), A4 (Apple) etc, etc

Yes indeed. So each license holder creates their own variation based on the core IP.

Not only that, the Flanker is like Linux. The holders also fork off their own family branches, hence the KnAPPO branch, the Irkut branch, the NAPO branch, and the Chinese branch. And even an Indian subbranch. Each fork chooses their own radar, armament set, avionics and engine sets for example.

Note how what in the IT world calls a platform fork also happens on the Russian T-series tanks.

 

[Quickie]

..... If this were actually true then Russia very clearly had absolutely no case at all from the very beginning and would not be making this kind of noise. But clearly they are, so something(s) about the details of the contract is/are not known to anyone in the public domain.

It's the russian media that's making a lot of noise, most of them being just rehatched news from one another. So far no russian official has commented directly at the issue. Actually one russian official did indirectly comment on it but the russian media got ahead of themselves reading too much into it and end up quoting him completely out of context and with their own interpretation of the matter.

 

[Titanium]

To begin with, we need to clarify how the Sukhoi organization works. Its not like Boeing or Lockheed.

Sukhoi, and so is MiG, are design bureaus. This means they're a company whose main product is brain work. If you're familiar with Silicon Valley, many companies are this way. IP companies with no manufacturing.

Within Sukhoi's orbit are a number of large satellite companies that actually do the manufacture of their products. The big three is NAPO, KnAAPO and Irkut. These companies are independent from Sukhoi; independent and yes, with self serving goals for themselves too. These firms even compete with each other on the market. Sukhoi licenses the designs for them to make:

NAPO does the Su-34 type

KnAAPO does the Su-27 single seaters along with variants thereof, such as Su-35, and Su-33 carrier jets.

Irkut does the Su-27 double seaters along with variants thereof, aka Su-30MKI. Note how NAPO, KnAAPO and Irkut are forking off their own Flanker variants, to the point that these variants compete against each other, Irkut's Su-30MK vs. KnAAPO's Su-35. KnAAPO has gone to the point of hatching their own double seaters - Su-30MKK and the double seater Su-35.

So, Shenyang AC licenses the design from Sukhoi itself, but to get the single seater kits, they have to have a separate deal with KnAAPO. And to get the double seater kits, they have to make another deal with Irkut.

For the parts themselves, China has to deal with other manufacturers separately, Salyut and Saturn for engines, NIIP for the radar and so on.

Note: if China licenses the Su-27 design, it does not mean they have licensed the radar, the engines, the opto-mechanical sight and so on and on. So China has to purchase these separately on separate contracts until China can fill in the blanks with domestic IP equivalents.

If this is a license, China pays Sukhoi a fee for every J-11B made. Even if the plane is 100% Chinese parts. That's not the problem. The problem is that the Russians think they make better money selling their own home grown and made variety. I believe Sukhoi may get a commission cut from the Russian parts contractors themselves from Chinese deals related to the J-11. Nothing bad about that. That's just business. So if China, lets say, buy engines from Salyut for the J-11, Sukhoi gets a cut. Of course, if China buys engines from Salyut for the J-10, Sukhoi doesn't. That's why the engine contracts are always separate, specific to the plane, and may not have the same unit price.

The Russians also do not understand the global IP business, coming from their Communist background. That's why they went around trying to sue countries for the AK-47 "patents". Which as you know, didn't hold. When their defense industries were at the brink and desperate for money, you can understand why they would patent troll.

The Chinese side is this: they believed that the J-11 deal is like the Harbin Z-8 deal, which they always hold as the model for licenses. They will take the basic design and modify for their own use, substituting domestic parts if needed and use foreign parts if necessary. The licensor gets a cut for every unit made. The Chinese have been mentioning the Z-8 model for a long time.

Nice summary Corbato.

Putting things in perspective.

 

[vesicles]

There's no guarantee that if the Chinese did get the license for the AL-31 they would be able to successfully produce it. Manufacturing and quality control problems have a lot more to do with the facilities and small scale management of products, which are much harder to control for, and which you simply can't just buy.

License-producing AL-31 would definitely help. When China first began license-producing Su-27, the first batch was very poor quality and they need help from experienced Russian technicians to solve those problems. These would be the exact quality control problems that WS-10 has (had) been facing for a while. Since China had never made any major turbofans before, a little extra help from someone with lots of experience would definitely help.

 

[tphuang]

Where is the evidence that Russia is getting any kind of cut on the J-11B production, or that the license cost included a 100% technology transfer from Sukhoi, or that the Chinese military modeled the J-11 deal to be like the Z-8 deal?

This doesn't get discussed a lot in the English press, but it does get discussed a lot among the people with no-hows on Chinese bbs. Basically, when Soviet Union disbanded, the Russian military industry was in a disarray. They gave away a lot of technology to China without much organization. According to what I hear from people really involved in the Chinese aero industry, they basically got away with robbery in the deal they signed with Russia. The package they signed for J-11 was really comprehensive. I think what happened is that it took a while for the Russians to realize that they got totally ripped off on the deal by China, so they are regretting and making a lot of noise about it. And from kanwa's January issue, it's clear that they are still delivering parts to China and getting paid (or have already been paid) for that. Of course, Russians want to stop China from doing that for a variety of reasons:
1) they don't know what kind of modifications China is putting on flankers, so they can't make sure that what China has is not better than what Russia has. And remember, there is still risks in the long term of Russian/China conflict
2) they want China to use their proposed upgrades which would use components like the ones on Su-27SM (except downgraded). It's costing their suppliers money that China is not using the Russian proposed weapons upgrade package
3) they want to make noise to prevent China from exporting flankers
4) they want to make sure that China will pay for royalty once the 200 units have been produced. And part of their concerns is that they have no clue how many flankers China is producing right now.
I think 2) is probably the largest reason

 

[ZTZ99]

This doesn't get discussed a lot in the English press, but it does get discussed a lot among the people with no-hows on Chinese bbs. Basically, when Soviet Union disbanded, the Russian military industry was in a disarray. They gave away a lot of technology to China without much organization. According to what I hear from people really involved in the Chinese aero industry, they basically got away with robbery in the deal they signed with Russia. The package they signed for J-11 was really comprehensive. I think what happened is that it took a while for the Russians to realize that they got totally ripped off on the deal by China, so they are regretting and making a lot of noise about it. And from kanwa's January issue, it's clear that they are still delivering parts to China and getting paid (or have already been paid) for that. Of course, Russians want to stop China from doing that for a variety of reasons:
1) they don't know what kind of modifications China is putting on flankers, so they can't make sure that what China has is not better than what Russia has. And remember, there is still risks in the long term of Russian/China conflict
2) they want China to use their proposed upgrades which would use components like the ones on Su-27SM (except downgraded). It's costing their suppliers money that China is not using the Russian proposed weapons upgrade package
3) they want to make noise to prevent China from exporting flankers
4) they want to make sure that China will pay for royalty once the 200 units have been produced. And part of their concerns is that they have no clue how many flankers China is producing right now.
I think 2) is probably the largest reason

The whole point is whether 2) and 4) are specified in any contract made between Russia and China. If they are, then China has broken the agreement. If there are not, then Russia has no right to demand any royalties or to demand that any of its parts be required to be put into J-11B's.

Related to point 2) is whether China paid for 100% technology transfer minus the avionics and engine (basically the entire design of the airframe), or whether Russia retained the right to demand that certain parts always come from Russia.

If I read about some Russian or Chinese government/military official or an official from Sukhoi or Shenyang speaking directly about these points, then it will be more or less established fact. Until then, it's just someone else's opinion.

 

[tphuang]

The whole point is whether 2) and 4) are specified in any contract made between Russia and China. If they are, then China has broken the agreement. If there are not, then Russia has no right to demand any royalties or to demand that any of its parts be required to be put into J-11B's.

Related to point 2) is whether China paid for 100% technology transfer minus the avionics and engine (basically the entire design of the airframe), or whether Russia retained the right to demand that certain parts always come from Russia.

If I read about some Russian or Chinese government/military official or an official from Sukhoi or Shenyang speaking directly about these points, then it will be more or less established fact. Until then, it's just someone else's opinion.

you will get different interpretations from the two sides. I think it's quite fair to say that the Russians didn't understand binding contracts that well right after the soviet break-up. If you just look at their dealings with the Gorshkov, T-90 and IL-76, they keep thinking it's acceptable to just jack up the cost of the contract if it's deemed unprofitable for them. They seemed to have no respect for a signed contract.