i expect a relatively small production run at first. 30, 40 planes tops. that should be some 2 batches, going on in 2013. and 2014. Then the production line may switch to j16. Then, as new, additional carriers get built - which may be near the end of the decade, more j15 may be built alongside j16.
My own theory is that the F-60 or a similar carrier based stealthy aircraft, will be launched with the first indigenous carrier, ramp or catobar, and that may well be concurrent with further J-15 production. Brat