China demographics thread.

[Biscuits]

not necessarily true, i wager that had it not been the one-child policy, China would be facing a bigger population cliff now, because overcrowding would be worse.

If China had tried to pay the same amount of welfare for more than 1 child, it would have been too costly. Plus the economical aspect "so called one child policy" of family planning changed very little, it was the accompanying sexual/workplace liberation of women that followed decades after. For 20 years after the economic one child policy begun, people simply tanked paying tuition etc for more children because most people who have 1 child want the child to have a sibling and the cost is negligable. Fertility fell in the early 2000s only.

You can't have your cake and eat it too. If you have your wholesome 5 kids and a farm, you're not gonna be the world's best at science at the same time. Top tier academicians need academic wives (or they are themselves the wives). These wives don't have 3+ children, or even have children at all. But they're needed as social support to the people pushing ahead science and industry, so we can have the biggest economy in the world, the most scientific output and citations etc.

If Chinese were told to just be chill, just live on welfare with 3 children in big houses, we'd end up today with a social life and TFR like maybe Sweden or Denmark. And are these nations known for tech prowess or innovativeness?

Btw notice how even in the best of situations, TFR isn't at replacement levels and these chill eurocucks are busy flooding themselves with MENA because they don't have the tech to solve their demographic problem. While China has a 0.5 worse TFR bigger problem, it also has infinitely better ability to solve demographic challenges with real solutions. Developed countries period struggle with compensating a population boom that exceeds the natural ability to sustain. Euros have made themselves the worst of two worlds where they're too lazed out to find real solutions but also not birthing children anywhere near the lemming like rates needed to meatwave through a population "cliff".

 

[Eventine]

Lol you're just two misinformation seeking idiots feeding off eachother, because this is the fake news that you want to see. It is completely absurd, like watching 2 clowns jerk eachother

I cited sources that are academically verified. You cited… your opinion? So whose the fake news.

 

[tokenanalyst]

academically verified.

Anything that has to do with Humanities and Social Science is usually garbage.

 

[tokenanalyst]

The rate of decline in China's young population is extremely alarming, with a decrease of over 50% per generation. This will seriously weaken China's investment and consumption, stop updating urban infrastructure, and in decades, China will no longer be able to maintain a complete industrial chain advantage. At the same time, the elderly will control more resources, leading to social rigidity and innovation stopping. More and more elderly people who cannot work will need to rely on a very small number of young people to support them, which is catastrophic.
On the other hand, assuming that by 2100, China has a population of 1 billion and a healthy population structure, it will dominate the world. If China has a population of only about 400 million and a poor population structure by 2100, it is highly likely that China will degenerate into a regional power, and India will move towards the top of the world at this time.

I think this thing has been vastly exaggerated, we can't predict what will happen 5 years in the future let alone 75 years, what if in 15 years there is a change of culture in young women that favor motherhood instead of being a lonely older career women. Nobody knows that. There is nothing biological in the global falling birth rates, is just a change of global culture. The one child policy had many gaps that people exploited to have multiple children, that is why china birth rates was still above 2 even with the policy in full force, there was a culture especially in rural china of having multiple children and more in young girls that fully embraced motherhood, is when this global culture hit China as the country developed that got many women and men to think i can do more things with my life than having children. Which in theory could be considered a good thing.

If this thing represent a "national security threat" and If China want to increase the birth rates they could perfectly do it, the issue is that people in the West are going to complain about rights. But individuals rights are no above any country and sadly the full patriotic responsibility of child bearing falls on women. that is the reality.

 

[Xiongmao]

I think this thing has been vastly exaggerated, we can't predict what will happen 5 years in the future let alone 75 years, what if in 15 years there is a change of culture in young women that favor motherhood instead of being a lonely older career women. Nobody knows that. There is nothing biological in the global falling birth rates, is just a change of global culture. The one child policy had many gaps that people exploited to have multiple children, that is why china birth rates was still above 2 even with the policy in full force, there was a culture especially in rural china of having multiple children and more in young girls that fully embraced motherhood, is when this global culture hit China as the country developed that got many women and men to think i can do more things with my life than having children. Which in theory could be considered a good thing.

If this thing represent a "national security threat" and If China want to increase the birth rates they could perfectly do it, the issue is that people in the West are going to complain about rights. But individuals rights are no above any country and sadly the full patriotic responsibility of child bearing falls on women. that is the reality.

Exactly, look at this chart. China's population has exploded in the past 100 years along with the other nations. China's population will decline along with the other nations. Even with the "small" population in the past, China still managed to become one third of the world's economy at different times. Chill men!

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

You can't have your cake and eat it too. If you have your wholesome 5 kids and a farm, you're not gonna be the world's best at science at the same time. Top tier academicians need academic wives (or they are themselves the wives). These wives don't have 3+ children, or even have children at all. But they're needed as social support to the people pushing ahead science and industry, so we can have the biggest economy in the world, the most scientific output and citations etc.

This is why something like the Guangxi phenomenon could be applied to and encouraged in the rest of China. Since 2018, China has more male married to foreign women compared to women married to foreign men. This was mainly due to a sudden surge of Guangxi folks marrying Vietnamese and Laotian brides (or more precisely, Indochinese women seeking better opportunities in China). Yet, China lacks formal institutions and policies to allow these brides to "become Chinese". Hack, they aren't even allowed to work in China.

You are absolutely right. Chinese female STEM graduates and entrepreneurs should focus on technological innovations and spend less time on family duties. It is for this reason Beijing should REALLY institutionalise a pathway for foreign women to acquire PR through marriage. It is like the US since the 1970s.

As American women pursue more independent career paths that benefit the entire country and society, they become less likely to marry at young age to average males. Thus, a lot more foreign women seeking better social economic opportunities marrying average (but still way better off compared to these foreign women's economic situations) American men. Putting racial and gender issues aside, if you were a South Vietnamese, Thai, Korean, Japanese, or Taiwanese woman in the 70s who managed to persuade a GI to marry you and take you back to the good olde USA, you could pretty much kiss goodbye to extreme poverty. And the post-1965 US immigration policy really supported such marriages.