China demographics thread.

[Nevermore]

I expect the birth rate to continue to decline significantly this year, but with the implementation of policies, it is expected to stabilize the birth rate in the coming years. Currently, there are significant negative barriers in China in terms of marriage intention, housing, cost of childbirth and child rearing, and attitudes towards childbirth
If the future fertility subsidy can increase by 200% -400%, together with other optimization policies, the fertility rate may be able to recover to 1.2-1.5

 

[Nevermore]

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Hohhot has a general election for families with three children and above to enroll in the city, and registered residence restrictions have been cancelled in the pilot program for primary school starting grades
This is a very radical pilot policy that is likely to lead to social protests and backlash, as this preferential treatment discriminates against families with one or two children. Some people say that families with three children will be "dragon like" and "school district children".

 

[coolgod]

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Hohhot has a general election for families with three children and above to enroll in the city, and registered residence restrictions have been cancelled in the pilot program for primary school starting grades
This is a very radical pilot policy that is likely to lead to social protests and backlash, as this preferential treatment discriminates against families with one or two children. Some people say that families with three children will be "dragon like" and "school district children".

Great policy, these pro-natal policies need to accelerate.

 

[Totoro]

Weird choice of treshold, though. Why just 3 and above? Much greater effect would be felt with 2 and above. Only reasoning I can think of is finances. Affording 2 and more for everyone might not be possible. And discriminating and offering incentives to just SOME of the 2+ kid families might've been regarded as too risky to backfire.

But ultimately, the biggest issue of low births is not people who have a kid but don't have two. (and especially not people who have two kids but don't have three)
The hardest nut to crack will be getting people with no kids to have any kids at all. For those, monetary compensation and any sort of child education and child rearing help will not work nearly as well. And given that those people make up like over 30% of overall population capable of having kids - without addressing that group, results of any demographics incentives will always be fairly poor.

 

[Nevermore]

Weird choice of treshold, though. Why just 3 and above? Much greater effect would be felt with 2 and above. Only reasoning I can think of is finances. Affording 2 and more for everyone might not be possible. And discriminating and offering incentives to just SOME of the 2+ kid families might've been regarded as too risky to backfire.

But ultimately, the biggest issue of low births is not people who have a kid but don't have two. (and especially not people who have two kids but don't have three)
The hardest nut to crack will be getting people with no kids to have any kids at all. For those, monetary compensation and any sort of child education and child rearing help will not work nearly as well. And given that those people make up like over 30% of overall population capable of having kids - without addressing that group, results of any demographics incentives will always be fairly poor.

I believe that DINK families are still very rare, and the prominent problem now may be that young people are not in love or getting married
On the one hand, it is due to economic difficulties and work pressure, and on the other hand, it may be due to cultural factors. In the past, I have read reports that the proportion of college students in love has significantly decreased compared to the past