The big spikes at age 30-35 and 50-55? Correspond to China's baby boom in 1965-1970 and their children born in 1985-1990. When was China developing fastest? When the baby boom demographic matured in the workforce at around age 30-35 for the first round of reform in the mid 1990's and then when their kids entered the workforce around 2010.
It is no wonder that China is outmaneuvering these guys. It is literally putting 35 year olds against 58 year old grandpas. And while the 58 year old grandpas laughed at the 35 year old's parents for being uneducated, these 35 year olds are just as educated as the grandpas.
In the late 2020's and 2030's China will shine bright. The wave of youth in their 20's and 30's will drive huge innovation, while a flexible leadership concentrated in the 1980's generation raised in an era of great change will be able to respond readily to challenges.
Fully agree, which is why I've always emphasized that China's most promising period for dominance over the US is in the next 15 years. That's when a combination of current 25-35 years educated cohort (the "working age bulge") in management and leadership positions (they'll be 40-50), combined with the "youth bulge" of current 5-15 years highly educated cohort (who'll be 20-30) will deliver a one-two blow to the aging US establishment. Sure, there will also be more retired people (due to the 45-60 "soon to retire bulge", who'll be 60-75), which will be a resource sink, but it still beats whatever the US, Japan, Europe, UK, and South Korea have got going.
This is also why South Korea, despite its ~0.7 TFR, is still competitive in many industries, while Japan is struggling to maintain competitiveness. South Korea's nominal GDP per capita actually
surpassed Japan's in 2023, reversing decades of Japan being more advanced / wealthy:
You can see South Korea's "working age bulge" in the 25-35 group that's currently holding the economy up while for Japan, their bulge is in the 45-60 range, hence their whole economy feels like it's run by dinosaurs - because it actually is.
Immigration will not solve this problem as even in the US, most immigrants or their descendants will never be able to truly enter the leadership class (sorry Vivek and Yang, the only 2nd generation immigrant that will lead is Trump).
I have a different take. I think US whites are seeing their powers and privileges erode as their demographic power worsens relative to immigrants, who are younger, hungrier, and increasingly run the American economy; this is what is driving the pivot to radical right-wing leaders like Trump, who promise to make (White) American Great Again. But demographics is destiny - Trump will not be able to reverse demographics in the short term, and as that 30-60 population range moves up to 45-75, it's going to take a toll on white power across US industries.
This will be addressed either through gate keeping, which will erode US competitiveness, or through acceptance, which will erode white control of the US.
The sole way for whites to maintain power in the US will be to absorb young European immigrants (especially from Eastern Europe). That might yet be the plan from Trump, but I don't necessarily think those people will have the same ideology or cultural out look as native white Americans.
