China demographics thread.

[Totoro]

Issue is that those policies aren't nearly enough. They *may* yield the effect of total fertility rate raised from the 2020 level of 1.3 to a future level of 1.4 or so within several years. But that's not nearly enough. To avoid societal upheavals, and *if* the very long term goal is to very slowly shrink China's population so future economic issues are avoided, TFR should by only slightly lower than the replacement level 2.1 So basically around 1.9 or so, not lower.

At this point, only two solutions exist: a vast monetary influx into the demographics program, likely unaffordable for China (as it'd likely take a few trillion USD per year) that would start solving the problem fairly quickly (within several years). Or a multi decade propaganda push to change the cultural norms. Which would work only *alongside* at least part of those few trillion per year being pumped into the child-rearing eco system, to create a basis for raising a child affordably. But, as said, that approach would take decades and it'd be also risky. Not monetarily, but in social terms. If not done carefully and methodically and slowly, it could have adverse effects to country's stability.

(of course taking a few trillion USD per year for demographics program would also vastly affect country's stability as well)

Immigration would be another crutch to rely on, to help the overall goal to an extent, but that doesn't seem to be the road China's government is ready to travel down.

 

[AndrewS]

Issue is that those policies aren't nearly enough. They *may* yield the effect of total fertility rate raised from the 2020 level of 1.3 to a future level of 1.4 or so within several years. But that's not nearly enough. To avoid societal upheavals, and *if* the very long term goal is to very slowly shrink China's population so future economic issues are avoided, TFR should by only slightly lower than the replacement level 2.1 So basically around 1.9 or so, not lower.

At this point, only two solutions exist: a vast monetary influx into the demographics program, likely unaffordable for China (as it'd likely take a few trillion USD per year) that would start solving the problem fairly quickly (within several years). Or a multi decade propaganda push to change the cultural norms. Which would work only *alongside* at least part of those few trillion per year being pumped into the child-rearing eco system, to create a basis for raising a child affordably. But, as said, that approach would take decades and it'd be also risky. Not monetarily, but in social terms. If not done carefully and methodically and slowly, it could have adverse effects to country's stability.

(of course taking a few trillion USD per year for demographics program would also vastly affect country's stability as well)

Immigration would be another crutch to rely on, to help the overall goal to an extent, but that doesn't seem to be the road China's government is ready to travel down.

I would give it another 10 years for large scale immigration

Wages will be a lot higher than today and China could easily absorb large numbers of migrants

 

[AndrewS]

Issue is that those policies aren't nearly enough. They *may* yield the effect of total fertility rate raised from the 2020 level of 1.3 to a future level of 1.4 or so within several years. But that's not nearly enough. To avoid societal upheavals, and *if* the very long term goal is to very slowly shrink China's population so future economic issues are avoided, TFR should by only slightly lower than the replacement level 2.1 So basically around 1.9 or so, not lower.

I think the effect of demographic decline on social stability is overstated

We see many countries with similar demographics in Asia and elsewhere
If anything, stability should increase as a tighter labour supply pushes up wages whilst also relieving pressure to create as many new jobs

Unemployed young men have historically been where protests and revolutions catch fire

 

[Hadoren]

Issue is that those policies aren't nearly enough. They *may* yield the effect of total fertility rate raised from the 2020 level of 1.3 to a future level of 1.4 or so within several years. But that's not nearly enough. To avoid societal upheavals, and *if* the very long term goal is to very slowly shrink China's population so future economic issues are avoided, TFR should by only slightly lower than the replacement level 2.1 So basically around 1.9 or so, not lower.

At this point, only two solutions exist: a vast monetary influx into the demographics program, likely unaffordable for China (as it'd likely take a few trillion USD per year) that would start solving the problem fairly quickly (within several years). Or a multi decade propaganda push to change the cultural norms. Which would work only *alongside* at least part of those few trillion per year being pumped into the child-rearing eco system, to create a basis for raising a child affordably. But, as said, that approach would take decades and it'd be also risky. Not monetarily, but in social terms. If not done carefully and methodically and slowly, it could have adverse effects to country's stability.

(of course taking a few trillion USD per year for demographics program would also vastly affect country's stability as well)

Immigration would be another crutch to rely on, to help the overall goal to an extent, but that doesn't seem to be the road China's government is ready to travel down.

Why not try a Four Child Policy?

 

[AndrewS]

Why not try a Four Child Policy?

Singapore's TFR of 1.2 demonstrates the scale of the challenge

In 1986, the "Stop at Two" campaign was replaced by "Have Three or More, If You Can Afford It" campaign. The government created incentives to have larger families, including a 1989 provision in which a fourth child earned its parents a $20,000 tax rebate.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

There are millions and million of bachelor in China who cannot find wife like this guy specially in the country side. Very SAD. He try but failed. He dated 40 women but all failed Now he has happy life. Nothing wrong with him he work hard good provider and very generous, except that is come from rural area and has no good education. Chinese government should look in facilitating easy access and streamline procedure for Chinese men to marry foreign wife specially overseas Chinese women USE CC to get english trans

Seem like the family and the community around her accept her. Every where she goes people ask her to find wife for their son, brother, or himself Comment flooding one moved me basically it said You seem to be happy in China and people accept you don't forget you are descendant of dragon and China will always be your home

The man had 40 blind dates in China, but all failed. Finally, he married a foreign wife​

 

[Hendrik_2000]

It is not easy to get spouse visa and they have to renew it every year. And very expensive $200 Hope they can get long term visa

 

[nugroho]

There are millions and million of bachelor in China who cannot find wife like this guy specially in the country side. Very SAD. He try but failed. He dated 40 women but all failed Now he has happy life. Nothing wrong with him he work hard good provider and very generous, except that is come from rural area and has no good education. Chinese government should look in facilitating easy access and streamline procedure for Chinese men to marry foreign wife specially overseas Chinese women USE CC to get english trans

Seem like the family and the community around her accept her. Every where she goes people ask her to find wife for their son, brother, or himself Comment flooding one moved me basically it said You seem to be happy in China and people accept you don't forget you are descendant of dragon and China will always be your home

The man had 40 blind dates in China, but all failed. Finally, he married a foreign wife​

Marrying to Mainland / Taiwanese men were common about 5-15 years ago, now it is still happening but very rare to find

 

[BlackWindMnt]

It is not easy to get spouse visa and they have to renew it every year. And very expensive $200 Hope they can get long term visa

That sounds like a lot of money each year to renew a piece of paper.

 

[Totoro]

Frankly, at this point, people marrying a Chinese citizen should get their spouse an automatic 5 year working/living visa. If they're still married after 5 years, they should be able to apply for getting a Chinese passport.

Such a move might do slightly more for demographics than most of the measures that China is trying lately.