China demographics thread.

[siegecrossbow]

These incentives are very similar to what Japan did but it didn't work. There also needs to be a cultural shift .
Now the reason i wanted the limits gone is that having a limit signifies that beyond a specific number children become a burden on the nation and family. This notion of children being a burden itself needs to go.

Also China is the only nation that can enable a "carrots and stick" approach. Only carrots wont work (Japan is proof).

If they get sufficiently desperate they may resort to banning contraceptives/abortion. Let’s hope they don’t get there.

 

[hashtagpls]

Once a society evolves into the Homo economics stage, it’s hard to turn back the clock. And, subsidizing families is fraught with risk as the US “welfare” system has shown. In the US, the system evolved into women having children simply to gain access to subsidies, with little concern for their children’s social, moral, or intellectual development. Many women even under-develop their children, intentionally, in order to gain access to greater “special-educational subsidies. This produced a cycle of women that reproduced simply to get free money, housing, food, and what’s now a multi-generational, permanent dependency class.
China should simply let its citizens make the family-planning decisions that make economic sense to each family and make the best of that process. Increase the breadth and depth of wealth distribution and then see what happens.

If they get sufficiently desperate they may resort to banning contraceptives/abortion. Let’s hope they don’t get there.

It takes a whole village ie society to raise a child; welfare payments and subsided housing etc help but they're insignificant compared to the family unit and society in helping to raise children to become prosocial, responsible citizens.

For eg, China doesn't need the toxic culture in the West where every parent is second guessing every other parents and virtue signalling via their kids and instagram mum cafe groups. Chinese society lauds those who contribute to society eg the banners of COVID doctors and nurses of Wuhan across the nation; there should be similar plaudits for Chinese women who give birth and raise 3 children, perhaps when the kids reach 18, she and her husband and family should be honoured.

 

[voyager1]

It takes a whole village ie society to raise a child; welfare payments and subsided housing etc help but they're insignificant compared to the family unit and society in helping to raise children to become prosocial, responsible citizens.

For eg, China doesn't need the toxic culture in the West where every parent is second guessing every other parents and virtue signalling via their kids and instagram mum cafe groups. Chinese society lauds those who contribute to society eg the banners of COVID doctors and nurses of Wuhan across the nation; there should be similar plaudits for Chinese women who give birth and raise 3 children, perhaps when the kids reach 18, she and her husband and family should be honoured.

Chinese have their own "Tiger" parents who are getting peer pressured from seeing other kids doing better academically than their own

You can say that this is a kind of competition ofc but it is still pressuring the parents a lot

 

[Gatekeeper]

Lifting the cap is a necessary step, but like some others I think more needs to be done.

Subsidised child care is important. As for education, if you're going to reduce the pressure I think it needs huge investment. There's far too much disparity between schools in urban and rural areas, and that hugely affects how your higher education progresses. In turn that increases stress on parents, which many people want to avoid. So I would:

1. increase investment in teacher training;
2. increase teacher salaries (to attract better quality candidates), with no variation for rural and urban areas (to try to stop the brain drain to the cities);
3. guarantee a spending level for each child so the schools get a minimum level of funding;
4. have top-up spending for children from poor backgrounds;
5. abolish hukou penalties for families - ensure that migrant workers can bring their children with them and get a good education in the cities. These are people the Chinese government should be rewarding, not punishing;
6. abolish tuition fees for public-sector schools or have the State pay for parents below a fairly generous wage;
7. abolish reserved places for local students at top universities - people born in Beijing do not need to go there.

If you do all this you will set the groundwork for an improved education system that people will feel more confident about, and in turn they'll think having a child isn't so bad.

As for a PR campaign, I doubt that would do much. For the last several decades the CCP has been pushing the story "growth, growth, growth - jobs, jobs, jobs - money, money, money". You can't change that with some positive stories about having children. Chinese people have to work hard even if they don't have children, so they can't be tricked into thinking having babies will be a breeze. Equally women aren't going to lie back and think of China.

If you really want to do something about perceptions, encouraging men to spend more time with child rearing and house work would be more productive, I think.


I think that would be both unfair and counter-productive. Not everyone is able to have large families, and it could encourage people to have lots of children they couldn't afford in expectation of getting a good job to pay for them. Then there's the fact you could end up with very incompetent people getting well paid, which would lease to worse outcomes for the company and resentment amongst other workers.

Perhaps what you meant or could have suggested was increased subsidies for parents. So, for example, their employers could offer free or subsidied child-care at their offices/nearby. This could be done privately or with financial assistance from the state. That way the parents find it easier to support their children and work but they're not getting ahead career-wise.

EDIT: Added in further reply below.


Not sure what stick you're thinking of, but punishing people for not having children if they have fertility problems would be immoral. Also I think that if you started restricting birth-control you'd end up with more women dying in back street clinics - which has happened in every country where abortions and the pill were banned or limited.

China has historically been used to the cultural preference for large families, and even today doesn't really have a lot of State-spending on children. As noted above it even punishes families if they're migrant workers. So I think it should try throwing money at the problem first. After all it's had a huge construction and infrastructure boom, where in many cases money was no object. Why not try that on people?

voyager1, great article, thanks. Ye Liu's comment is easily forgotten. In a place like China where your career is very important, discrimination against young women is something else that needs to be addressed. If pregnant women and those who have just given birth are at an enhanced risk of being laid off, demoted or moved sideways, the easiest solution is not to get pregnant in the first place.

I must say I'm impressed with your post. And give credit where credit is due. Although I don't agree with every proposal/idea in your post. Nevertheless, it's an argued opinion, and not one that is born out of prejudices.

It is true that I've had issues with some of your past posting, but this isn't one if them, and it is one worthy of respect.

 

[Phead128]

By design, One Child Policy is suppose to reduce population as a feature to reverse overpopulation. By design, it was suppose to be relaxed in future.

Yet West says population reduction is sign of death or doom.

Yet if China had the same population explosion like India, I can assure you, West would be saying "young, restless, unemployed youths, unstable testosterone against CCP regime" and screaming low-income trap/overpopulation for China.

 

[RavenClaws]

By design, One Child Policy is suppose to reduce population as a feature to reverse overpopulation. By design, it was suppose to be relaxed in future.

Yet West says population reduction is sign of death or doom.

Yet if China had the same population explosion like India, I can assure you, West would be saying "young, restless, unemployed youths, unstable testosterone against CCP regime" and screaming low-income trap/overpopulation for China.

And don't forget the "those savages eats anything and breed like rabbits" line of thinking that they all hold but don't always express openly. It doesn't matter what political party they support.

"Damn those Chinese sure breed like insects, let me ignore that Europeans basically had the same population expansion in the 19-20th century, but we managed to export our excess population to 3 other continents while wiping out the natives instead of packing 1+ billion in Europe."

Conservatives may be more strongly anti-black and anti-muslim, with a very sensitive nerve towards anything in the line of the "white replacement theory", but my "liberal" friends are the ones who keep making super racist jokes against Asians, from the overdone penis size to seemingly innoculous "ugh your language sounds so weird" or "haha a Huawei phone have fun getting spied on". They then go back to "it's just a joke bro lighten up I'm just messing with ya" when confronted.

 

[voyager1]

By design, One Child Policy is suppose to reduce population as a feature to reverse overpopulation. By design, it was suppose to be relaxed in future.

Yet West says population reduction is sign of death or doom.

Yet if China had the same population explosion like India, I can assure you, West would be saying "young, restless, unemployed youths, unstable testosterone against CCP regime" and screaming low-income trap/overpopulation for China.

Again with the West narrative?

Why is everyone so obsessed with what the West says about you?

Some people really make me believe that they have the same "white-worshipping" disease as Japanese, Philippines, India, ASEAN and other countries have

Why are people not paying attention to what Azerbaijan, Romania, Bulgaria, Kenya, Congo, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt etc write about China and only care about the US, UK, Australia and its lackeys?

There are many reasons why population growth is necessary for a country to have a long and stable economic trajectory. This issue has been discussed to death already. I recommend to start reading from pages 20 to

 

[Phead128]

Again with the West narrative?

Why is everyone so obsessed with what the West says about you?

Some people really make me believe that they have the same "white-worshipping" disease as Japanese, Philippines, India, ASEAN and other countries have

Why are people not paying attention to what Azerbaijan, Romania, Bulgaria, Kenya, Congo, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt etc write about China and only care about the US, UK, Australia and its lackeys?

There are many reasons why population growth is necessary for a country to have a long and stable economic trajectory. This issue has been discussed to death already. I recommend to start reading from pages 20 to

Because I live in the US? I am overwhelmed by US propaganda daily? I don't really speak other languages so yea...

 

[voyager1]

Because I live in the US? I am overwhelmed by US propaganda daily? I don't really speak other languages so yea...

Good reason. Anyway, you have access to some more diverse news here so that should help.

Some points to remember if you live in the US. If you are watching any news there, assume its 100% propaganda. If you see them critising China, it is projection.

No, genocide is not happening.
No, Chinese vaccines wont kill you
No, every Chinese person is not being paid in RMB to shill for China
No, China wont collapse anytime soon
No, China doesn't spy your every movement if you download a Chinese app
No, the virus wasnt created by the Chinese and it didnt "leak" from the Wuhan Biolab...


Yes, Trump was right. There is a "Deep State" which controls the US together with corporations
Yes, in foreign matters, Reps and Dems are different sides of the same coin. So they are the same..

Anyway, back to demographics. Overpopulation is being overblown. The only country where you constantly hear it from is the US which assumes that everyone will have a similar consumer habits as their own. Plus its the US which is the real problem here because with such "little" population, the consume so many resources

China still has of room to accommodate an increased population. I am sure that the Chinese leaders would prefer having a younger and growing population than an older, smaller and declining pop

 

[gadgetcool5]

China making marriage easier, divorce harder​

After loosening its childbearing policy in June to allow each couple to have as many as three children, up from a previous revision up to two, Beijing is now finalizing plans to promote wedlock to increase babymaking, starting by making marriage easier and cheaper.

A pilot scheme to rectify the “outdated, unwholesome betrothal culture and traditions” and to redress the balance for women is now being implemented in 15 provinces. This comes soon after Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a Communist Party Politburo

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at the end of May to discuss family-friendly and procreation policy recommendations.

Xi reportedly frowned upon the exorbitant engagement payments that must be made by a bridegroom’s family to his fiancée as well as the tradition of extravagant wedding dinners and celebrations in rural China that often land newlyweds deep in debt.

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