Marriages crashed 20% in 2024 compared to 2023, and constitutes just half of what it was in 2013. This bodes poorly for birth rates ahead.
There was a recent study showing that the main cause of birth rate collapse around the world was tied closely with marriage rates, and that governments were really addressing the wrong problem in trying to get families to have 2-3 children, because people who do have children, already favor having 2-3. The problem is so many people are perpetually single or jumping from relationship to relationship, that there's no way to make up for the birth deficit without getting married couples to have 5-6 children, which is not reasonable.
Getting people to marry more is difficult because marriage as an institution was fundamentally a component of patriarchy, where it served the purpose of maintaining social stability (fewer sexual feuds), incentivizing wealth creation (patrilineal inheritance), and keeping women in child-bearing roles (increased fertility). It also, to be fair, acted as a guarantee for women, for while elite men often violated the boundaries of marriage in keeping mistresses, they were still bound by the laws governing marital wealth, which provided for their wives' and children's economic security.
In modern times, all of this is thrown out the window. It is well-known that gender equality disincentivizes marriage for women, but in fact, sexual liberation and birth control also disincentivize marriage for men. From a woman's perspective, why get married if you don't need a man to be economically secure and successful? From a man's perspective, why get married if you can get sex without marriage and the legal and economic shackles that come with it?
Fixing or replacing marriage is key to improving fertility rates, but no government is bold enough to take the steps necessary. Simply incentivizing a broken institution financially will not bring it back; there has to be a complete revamp.
