China demographics thread.

[FriedRiceNSpice]

I would like to point out a clarification:
The fragmentary period called the "Warring States" which was ended by a Qin unification of the different states was preceded by the vaguely feudal system of the Zhou, which would later spiral into infighting between the different feudal states that made up Zhou's area of control.
Zhou (and the subsequent Warring States) was/were homogenous in ethnic makeup largely due to the expansion of the feudal system under 周公 (which entailed the pushing of what would later be called 汉人) into the far reaches of China proper. What this implies is that China in prehistoric times was not ethnically homogenous, but later became homogenous largely through the forcible integration and/or extermination of the groups that occupied spaces that were taken over during 周公's feudal expansion (extermination is the most likely candidate).

No, archeogentic studies show the genetic makeup of Northern China predating the Xia dynasty was largely homogenized and identical to the genetic makeup of North and Central China today. The Chinese genetic identify was formed by the mixture of two Northern Asian groups, ancient Qiangic tribes originating from Shaanxi and ancient Northeast Asian tribes originating from Shandong/Liaoning.

Any gibberish regarding China being a multi-ethnic state originates mostly from Communist propaganda in which the Party artificially created multiple ethnic minorities in an effort to make itself seem more popular, as well as buy support from said ethnic minorities by giving them preferential treatment.

No, the idea originated in post-Qing China, two decades before founding of the Communist party, and was enshrined in the 5 color flag of the early Republican period. And there was no artificial creation of ethnic groups, these groups have existed since prior to the Republican period.

 

[valysre]

No, the idea originated in post-Qing China, two decades before founding of the Communist party, and was enshrined in the 5 color flag of the early Republican period. And there was no artificial creation of ethnic groups, these groups have existed since prior to the Republican period.

If I remember correctly, there are some 40 recognized ethnic groups by the CCP. A number of them are fictional or have had miniscule differences deliberately emphasized. The Soviet Union did the same thing.

No, archeogentic studies show the genetic makeup of Northern China predating the Xia dynasty was largely homogenized and identical to the genetic makeup of North and Central China today.

I'd like to know which kind of gravesites were excavated, and where the excavations occurred. In all likelihood, only the groups capable of sophisticated burials (which would go on to form Xia -> Shang -> Zhou) have remains left to analyze. I'll guess that a large number of these excavations took place in the vicinity (although most likely not within) 关中.

I will continue to maintain that the ethnic homogeneity of China is largely due to an early feudal expansion around 2700 years ago.
At the very least, the cultural homogeneity of China is certainly due to this early feudal expansion.

 

[Moonscape]

I would like to point out a clarification:
The fragmentary period called the "Warring States" which was ended by a Qin unification of the different states was preceded by the vaguely feudal system of the Zhou, which would later spiral into infighting between the different feudal states that made up Zhou's area of control.
Zhou (and the subsequent Warring States) was/were homogenous in ethnic makeup largely due to the expansion of the feudal system under 周公 (which entailed the pushing of what would later be called 汉人) into the far reaches of China proper. What this implies is that China in prehistoric times was not ethnically homogenous, but later became homogenous largely through the forcible integration and/or extermination of the groups that occupied spaces that were taken over during 周公's feudal expansion (extermination is the most likely candidate).
However, 周公's feudal push did not really affect south of the Yangtze. The absence of extermination of the prehistoric groups in Southern China is evidenced by the clear differences in culinary preferences (culinary preferences are perhaps the most durable element of a cultural identity) and also through mitochondrial DNA differences in Northern and Southern Chinese populations. As you say, Southern China was largely integrated during Chu's gradually shifting territory as they were slowly consumed by the other Warring States, and during the Han dynasty.
We can however imagine why there might be substantial mitochondrial DNA differences while there are minimal other differences between the Northern and Southern Chinese populations (all the prehistoric southern men were killed and, well...).

In conclusion: China is ethnically homogenous as a result of large-scale eradications of other competing ethnic groups at different stages in early Chinese history. This is an ugly truth, but it hardly matters--these eradications all happened roughly 2000 years ago (the Han dynasty expansion in the South). and 3000 years ago (周公's feudal expansion). In fact, attempts at direct assimilation of other ethnic groups have gone very poorly in Chinese history, and are referred to by the phrase: 非我族类，其心必异.
Any gibberish regarding China being a multi-ethnic state originates mostly from Communist propaganda in which the Party artificially created multiple ethnic minorities in an effort to make itself seem more popular, as well as buy support from said ethnic minorities by giving them preferential treatment.

Sources please.

 

[doggydogdo]

They are indeed occupied by the US, but saying that they developed due to the US is beyond delusional and uneducated as they would be even much better off today had they not been occupied.

Yeah, they needed the US for exports, but the US economy also needed their superior, competitive products. And why do they make such products from the most fundamental kind of standpoint?

- High levels of intelligence, education, conscientiousness, agreeableness, performance, basically everything that Indians on average don't have.

Very preferable market access technology transfers, protectionism without consequences from US, relatively small population, and direct economic aid are the reasons why South Korea is an advanced economy today. South Korea's growth is nothing exceptional given the circumstances. Imagin if the Soviets got this treatment instead of open economic warfare from the west, they would be the most advanced country in the world.

 

[Moonscape]

I'd like to know which kind of gravesites were excavated, and where the excavations occurred. In all likelihood, only the groups capable of sophisticated burials (which would go on to form Xia -> Shang -> Zhou) have remains left to analyze. I'll guess that a large number of these excavations took place in the vicinity (although most likely not within) 关中.

I will continue to maintain that the ethnic homogeneity of China is largely due to an early feudal expansion around 2700 years ago.
At the very least, the cultural homogeneity of China is certainly due to this early feudal expansion.

Your sources first please. Onus probandi incumbit ei qui dicit, non ei qui negat

 

[Eventine]

Who cares if 70% are old if they created enough value through their productive years to support themselves into retirement age?

Because countries care about the present. Having created value in the past does not mean you are valuable in the present. If 70% of the population is retired and not productive, then the country is in serious trouble. Not to mention, old people having to save all their wealth for retirement because the nation does not have enough young people to support a welfare system means they will be that much more conservative in their spending and investment throughout their lives, which has negative effects on both consumption and innovation.

Or if the remaining working population is 20 times more productive than Indians for example, and pays explicit and implicit 'taxes' (unlike them), to support their elders (unlike them again)?

That's a good point, but the technology is converging not just in the computer science/AI field but in medicine and life sciences too.

Some world-leading anti-aging experts (not pseudo-scientists) even legitimately think that for example, they could live above 100 or even forever.

You see this everywhere, not only in average lifespans but also in many athletes being active for longer than ever, people working, etc.

Automation is already "saving" Japan for example right now. They have kept their old wages pretty much for decades already despite the inverted population pyramid. Also, when we are talking about technology, there are other technologies that could mitigate this - biotech.

So we are falling back again on "miracle technologies" that will make old people just as productive as young people.

I'm not 25 years old any more, and so I hope as much as the next person that we do make breakthroughs in bio-technology to slow or stop the process of aging. But much like strong AI, this is putting faith in what doesn't exist. I might as well say fusion power will be realized in twenty years and we'll all live in a paradise of infinite energy and abundance. But is that going to happen?

Whenever you find yourself citing "miracle technologies" to solve a problem, recognize that this is the equivalent of saying the problem cannot be solved, and so pure faith is required. That never inspires confidence.

I'd rather China take seriously the practical gravity of the matter, and take steps to reverse course, than to place blind faith on technology as its savior. Historically, breakthroughs often happen when we don't expect it; and yet, it happens rarely when we need it.

 

[Eventine]

No, archeogentic studies show the genetic makeup of Northern China predating the Xia dynasty was largely homogenized and identical to the genetic makeup of North and Central China today. The Chinese genetic identify was formed by the mixture of two Northern Asian groups, ancient Qiangic tribes originating from Shaanxi and ancient Northeast Asian tribes originating from Shandong/Liaoning.

No, the idea originated in post-Qing China, two decades before founding of the Communist party, and was enshrined in the 5 color flag of the early Republican period. And there was no artificial creation of ethnic groups, these groups have existed since prior to the Republican period.

While I'd like to see sources of both claims, honestly, I feel like you two are arguing the same thing, just by a different process.

Either Northern China was already homogeneous during the Neolithic or it was made so by the conquests and colonization of a highly successful population group during the early Bronze Age. In both cases, the end result was the same, which is that by the time of the first unified empires - the Qin and the Han - northern China was already fairly homogeneous.

This refutes the idea that China was a "civilization of immigrants" that mixed together peoples from all corners of the world; which is consistent with my own view on history because such a civilization could never have remained as coherent and enduring as China. Simply look at the Near Eastern civilizations as a comparison - they've went through so many cycles of mutual conquest, colonization, and migration, that all the early languages and peoples like Sumerians and Akkadians are extinct. Even the modern Egyptians don't speak the language of their ancestors, but Arabic. That's what actually happens when there's constant immigration and rule by foreign groups.

 

[Michael90]

I agree. There's no need stick to it or worship it; China should aways make our own system.

Because religion is stupid. All of them. It is a bunch of adults who can't cope with the real world lying to themselves that as long as they follow some rules or do as they're told, they will be rewarded in heaven. Personal responsibility in a world where there are no assurances is the ultimate truth.

This I agree. You can only stick to what you think works at a giving time. Communism or Christianity/Islam isn't Chinese but they were spread to China via various means which are now in use today in China. At the end of the day as far as something works then nothing wrong with that. Whether is communism, capatalism, etc foesnt matter.

 

[valysre]

Sources please.

From Wikipedia: "The mitochondrial-DNA haplogroups of the Han Chinese can be classified into the northern East Asian-dominating haplogroups, including A, C, D, G, M8, M9, and Z, and the southern East Asian-dominating haplogroups, including B, F, M7, N*, and R."
Thus, demonstrating a different maternal line in the North and South of China.

I'm not going to provide a source for things like the Warring States being a fragmentary state of the feudal Zhou, because that's accepted even in the West as historical fact, and 周公's expansion of the feudal system is well documented: "他率师东征，平定叛乱，灭奄后大举分封诸侯，营建成周洛邑" (from Baidu). The "奄" mentioned are counted amongst the barbarian people in Chinese history, although it is not too clear if this is because of cultural or ethnic differences.
"Within five years, the Duke of Zhou had managed to defeat the Three Guards and other rebellions and his armies pushed east, bringing more land under Zhou control" (from EN Wikipedia). It should be noted that 周公's feudal expansion at the time was to place potentially dangerous political rivals far away from power (as far as modern-day Beijing).

 

[manqiangrexue]

Here's a suggestion for increasing fertility rate that I've never heard anyone bring up: government subsidized wholesome milk formula. After the melamine scandal, there has been little trust in Chinese brands in the baby milk department leading to mad dashes to get formula from New Zealand, Australia, etc... Scalping cans of foreign milk powder is big big money in China; I've even heard that mailmen steal large shipments (putting them towards their lost packages allowance) to resell at the risk of losing their jobs. Chinese people abroad who are planning to go back to China keep their trips on the shush because they're scared that if news got out, all of their friends and family members with kids will beg them to bring back cans of milk powder, basically taking up all their luggage space and weight allowance. This is an ugly mess that has to stop.

The CCP should implement national milk formula manufacturing facilities that sell their products at cost to the domestic audience. A (generous) quota needs to be set per registered baby with purchase tickets sent to the parents otherwise you'll get creepy old fucks buying tons of them to drink as replacement to supermarket regular adult milk. These facilities should operate according to strict protocol with no money handling, no profit (all sales go through a separate governmental distribution entity) and no reason to cut costs ever. Everyone from chief manager to janitor is paid by the hour with no relation to product sales and their only function is to churn out huge amounts of high quality baby milk formula.

I recommend bootlegging Kendamil UK's formulas for goat and cow milk for all 3 stages. My wife has scoured the internet for the best in nutrition and lack of weird chemicals and found this to be absolutely unbeatable. She rejected all American, Australian and New Zealand brands that other Chinese go for after analysis of the trace chemicals used in them and found Kendamil (UK version only; US version adds things to F it up) to be number 1. When we brought this to Kazakhstan to accept our baby from the surrogate, the doctors took one look at it and said they'd never seen such an impressive milk formula and they said we must have broke the bank getting it. But they didn't know that it's cheap! Actually only about 40% the price of average US baby formula. Why? Because the UK government subsidizes it. The downside is that they don't want it to leave the country; they want it to serve babies in the UK, so international shipping is not offered. We have to hire a Chinese guy in the UK to buy them and ship them to us in crates of 30, which still, after shipping and his fee, turns out to be about half the price of just buying local US.