China demographics thread.

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
The danger is that it never gets desperate until it's too late. Like in South Korea, where the government is definitely desperate, but can't dig itself out of the hole.

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The best case scenario the government is putting forward is returning TFR to 1 by 2030, because South Korean TFR is currently 0.7.

Subsidizing children makes sense... Until you consider that 87.4 percent of 25-29 year olds and 56.3 percent of 30-34 year olds identify as single in South Korea.

If more than half of your population is single at 35, it doesn't matter how much you subsidize child birth! You're not escaping the trap because it would take FIVE CHILDREN PER FAMILY to counter more than half of your population not reproducing just to reach replacement.

Virtually nobody is going to want to have five children, even with subsidies. That's the sort of life-style that gives modern men and women nightmares.

China needs to arrest this development before it gets this bad, and the most important cultural change is this extreme individualism imported from the West. All social media, educational institutions, local party organizations, etc. need to be mobilized against the single life-style that is being sold to young women and men right now.
South Korea has not reached panic mode yet, they have not introduced punitive measures yet were your life, job and earnings is tie to if you are married or not and if you are a parent or not. Imagine a dystopia were being marry and having children is as important as having a degree to advance in a career. When you start to see single South Koreans migrating to North Korea is when you find out if they hit the panic button.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
South Korea has not reached panic mode yet, they have not introduced punitive measures yet were your life, job and earnings is tie to if you are married or not and if you are a parent or not. Imagine a dystopia were being marry and having children is as important as having a degree to advance in a career. When you start to see single South Koreans migrating to North Korea is when you find out if they hit the panic button.
There’s only so much you can do in a liberal democracy. Punitive measures against staying single would lead to the government being overthrown in the next election, if not earlier.

The thing you have to understand about the toxic mix of liberal democracy and market capitalism is that it is not a self sustaining ideology; it is the very example of a tragedy of the commons, which historians in the future will look back and remember.
 

Randomuser

Junior Member
Registered Member
In Africa women usually take their children with them to work, especially in rural areas, is common sight. In more advance economies and in cities women have to leave their children in daycare which is more expensive.
It seems that you basically have to strip females of their rights. They can't get education, good jobs, any rights, any bargaining power etc. Basically force them to be breeding machines like you see in these dystopian novels or shows. Again that's just not gonna happen unless you're completely desperate. For starters letting 50% of the population not being in a labour force is considered uncompetitive. Especially a country like China which has females working in some of the most complex STEM projects.
 

Xiongmao

Junior Member
Registered Member
It seems that you basically have to strip females of their rights. They can't get education, good jobs, any rights, any bargaining power etc. Basically force them to be breeding machines like you see in these dystopian novels or shows. Again that's just not gonna happen unless you're completely desperate. For starters letting 50% of the population not being in a labour force is considered uncompetitive. Especially a country like China which has females working in some of the most complex STEM projects.
In the USA in the 1960s, only 40% of women had a job. And yet the USA went to the moon and was the premier superpower heads and shoulders above everyone with 40% of the global economy. So you don't need 100% participation of the women in the workforce to do great things.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
It seems that you basically have to strip females of their rights. They can't get education, good jobs, any rights, any bargaining power etc. Basically force them to be breeding machines like you see in these dystopian novels or shows. Again that's just not gonna happen unless you're completely desperate. For starters letting 50% of the population not being in a labour force is considered uncompetitive. Especially a country like China which has females working in some of the most complex STEM projects.
I am saying as example that if people are going to complain and whine about problems like if is the end of the world then they shouldn't be afraid about governments taking extreme solutions.
If a country is facing an existential threat, like some people say these falling rates are, at the point individuals right no matter a nation existence takes priority.

Personally I think there is a lot of exaggeration and misguide fears on this debate. But if is really a existential threat then shouldn't not be taken lightly.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think pro-natal propaganda and cultural changes will be a lot more effective than taking away rights from women. Look at Israel... women still have a decent amount of rights but due to a highly pro-natal culture, the birth rate is still high. Essentially in Israeli society, because it is surrounded by enemies, the people know that they have to reproduce because they know that if they do not have numbers, they will be swamped and destroyed. The government in China should also start a campaign to tie marriage, family and childbirth to nationalism and national survival, as well as to the long-run health of society. Emphasize it as a duty and a public moral good in every kind of media. Give awards and attention to big families, etc.

These kinds of cultural propaganda changes are also not very expensive to implement.
 

Randomuser

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think pro-natal propaganda and cultural changes will be a lot more effective than taking away rights from women. Look at Israel... women still have a decent amount of rights but due to a highly pro-natal culture, the birth rate is still high. Essentially in Israeli society, because it is surrounded by enemies, the people know that they have to reproduce because they know that if they do not have numbers, they will be swamped and destroyed. The government in China should also start a campaign to tie marriage, family and childbirth to nationalism and national survival, as well as to the long-run health of society. Emphasize it as a duty and a public moral good in every kind of media. Give awards and attention to big families, etc.

These kinds of cultural propaganda changes are also not very expensive to implement.
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Even Israel has to be carried by hardcore religious guys (who don't really care for female rights) for birth rates. Without them the birth rate would be a lot less. And these guys are over 10% of the population who are basically leeches. Imagine if China had to feed over over 130 million people who don't do anything for religious reasons and don't have America giving them aid scaled up from Israel.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
It seems that you basically have to strip females of their rights. They can't get education, good jobs, any rights, any bargaining power etc. Basically force them to be breeding machines like you see in these dystopian novels or shows. Again that's just not gonna happen unless you're completely desperate. For starters letting 50% of the population not being in a labour force is considered uncompetitive. Especially a country like China which has females working in some of the most complex STEM projects.
You don't have to strip women of their rights. You just need to get your population away from the idea that the most important pursuits in life are money, luxury, and self-fulfillment. This is fundamentally an American consumerist import, not a basic feature of East Asian culture.

The lack of a compelling ideological alternative to American liberal capitalism is the main challenge facing East Asia, right now. When you're bought into your enemy's values system hook, line, and sinker, how do you intend to fight them? East Asian nations are honestly pretty pathetic when it comes to standing behind their own values. The Muslims and Hindus are a bit better, in that regard, but on the flip side they're pretty pathetic when it comes to anything other than belief systems.

The reality is that we still live in the shadows of Western Empire. Even though the physical oppression has lifted, the spiritual oppression remains - their values are still dominant across the world and people still aspire to imitate their civilization. It will take time for the Global South to break out of its Western fantasy, but the danger of that fantasy is that it robs you of time through eating at your demographics.

East Asian nations are currently in the process of committing national suicide. Their refusal to take it as seriously as it should be taken, will be their down fall.

China is probably the second best positioned to wake up before it's too late - the best being North Korea.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
View attachment 131445
Even Israel has to be carried by hardcore religious guys (who don't really care for female rights) for birth rates. Without them the birth rate would be a lot less. And these guys are over 10% of the population who are basically leeches. Imagine if China had to feed over over 130 million people who don't do anything for religious reasons and don't have America giving them aid scaled up from Israel.

But notice how even secular Jews have a birthrate of around 2 and it's been steady for 30 years. If China could achieve that it would be a miracle.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
But notice how even secular Jews have a birthrate of around 2 and it's been steady for 30 years. If China could achieve that it would be a miracle.
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If the Bibi created mess in the Middle East is not solved soon Israelis will migrate in mass to Europe and the US.
 
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