China demographics thread.

[coolgod]

The fact is there is no fixing it and it isn’t as big of a deal as it seems from the raw numbers. No generation in history or contemporary times ever had any where close to 100% of men paired up with women. The reality is these are mostly going to be poor rural men with no chance at all of getting a foreign wife - unless sex trafficked - and China is not going to be able to import women who want to marry them.

It’s a problem created by the one child policy & there’s no going back to change that. What should’ve happened was the Chinese leadership should not have listened to a rocket engineer influenced by Western Malthusian agents but what are you going to do now?

If China can eradicate absolute poverty even in the most rural areas, I'm sure China can come up with a solution. 17-30 million is a lot of people to give up on, those rural men are likely very traditional and greatly value the importance of family. If given a chance they will definitely raise the future generation.

 

[doggydogdo]

China should give young parents/married couples better access to jobs in SOE which usually have the best labour conditions and benefits

 

[azn_cyniq]

I wonder if suburbanization would help bring the fertility rate up. China should build low-density housing in rural areas that are only available to couples with multiple children.

 

[tygyg1111]

If China can eradicate absolute poverty even in the most rural areas, I'm sure China can come up with a solution. 17-30 million is a lot of people to give up on, those rural men are likely very traditional and greatly value the importance of family. If given a chance they will definitely raise the future generation.

I think a focus on continued economic development is the best chance at levelling the playing field for these 17-30M rural men. When the personal income ratio goes above 3:1 (i.e. man has 3x the wealth / income of the average male from the home country of the woman) finding a foreign wife becomes much easier.

 

[Index]

Numbers just look large because China is large, the norm for societies where war didn't kill off a signficant bunch of men (eastern europe) is a few (101-105:100) more men than women.

Historically it's just rectified by marrying older/younger women, but since today China has the convinience of immigration and there's other countries which have really high birth rates, there's no reason not to speed it up.

 

[Michael90]

I didn't know we are comparing quality of life to ancient times, shall we compare historical poverty levels, hunger levels, infant mortality rates too?


You clearly didn't read the article.


Since you can't fix the number of young people in China, the next best thing you can fix is the unbalanced sex ratio.

Seriously, sometimes I ask myself when the CCP introduced the one child policy didn't the experts who drafted this policy predict the obvious consequences of such a policy and the long term consequences this will have on the country? For a party that's known to think long term wise I'm surprised they didn't foresee this or if they did then they ignored it for some reason.
Even more so I can't understand why they stuck with it for so long until recently. It's crazy that it took them so long to discard this genocidal and catastrophic policy which has affected and will continue to affect China for decades to come and the foreseeable future.
The fact that they still have a 3 child policy even today is even more laughable, instead of allowing people to have as much kids as they wish like every other normal country on earth.

 

[bebops]

There is a solution to reverse birth decline. Give financial assistance, food assistance, free education and subsided low housing for giving birth.

Those people who dont marry or give birth will not qualify for any assistance and has to pay a little more taxes.

 

[Index]

Seriously, sometimes I ask myself when the CCP introduced the one child policy didn't the experts who drafted this policy predict the obvious consequences of such a policy and the long term consequences this will have on the country? For a party that's known to think long term wise I'm surprised they didn't foresee this or if they did then they ignored it for some reason.
Even more so I can't understand why they stuck with it for so long until recently. It's crazy that it took them so long to discard this genocidal and catastrophic policy which has affected and will continue to affect China for decades to come and the foreseeable future.
The fact that they still have a 3 child policy even today is even more laughable, instead of allowing people to have as much kids as they wish like every other normal country on earth.

China's population curve follows pretty much every developed country though. What family planning policies probably achieved are just eliminating the possibility to welfare queen, thus letting the back then less wealthy government provide a full child welfare package, which should have had beneficial effects on education, child conditions etc. Although any such effect is difficult if not impossible to measure.

And such family planning adjustments are far from "genocidal" lol. Genocidal to who? At most it hurt bottom class ppl who wanted infinite children, well guess what, it's not nice to the children to birth them in families that can't support them.

Hence, the effect of family planning on Chinese macro demographics is near 0, seeing as China (especially the 1st tier parts) essentially has the same fertility development as comparable developed countries (Germany for example) that didn't have any family planning organizations.

They stuck with it and then modified it because the data doesn't support it has anything to do with birth rates. The majority of the country is wealthy enough to afford as many non-welfare covered children as they want, the minority that the policy deters is not big enough to matter on a macro level. But with more wealth in the government, they can afford to fund more children, hence modification to providing welfare packages for 3.

Rather the data supports the cause of falling birthrates due to common factors among developed economies.

 

[Serb]

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Despite the higher male-to-female ratio, China still has higher marriage rates than the countries of the West, so it doesn't matter (this is not a problem for anything).

So, even in more gender-balanced societies, women simply don't care about getting married more and more, it doesn't matter whether there is a hypothetical balance, at the end of the day, or not when no one ever reaches that ceiling anyways.

"One child policy" is a non-factor for any kind of serious discussion. If you don't get this is a cultural issue, you are an idiot. Did Japan and SK have "OnE cHiLd PoLiCy"???

In the link above, East Asians have even higher marriage rates than Westerns, but fewer children, what does that tell you? They simply prefer to invest more in their already existing children (so they perform as best as possible), then to make more of them. This is their evolutionary psychology strategy for colder climates.

They are also smarter and can understand more or less upfront all the long-term costs of raising more and more children than blindly venturing into all of that like some other populations. If you don't read about anthropology and evolutionary psychology, you can't realize anything.

 

[Index]

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Despite the higher male-to-female ratio, China still has higher marriage rates than the countries of the West, so it doesn't matter (this is not a problem for anything).

So, even in more gender-balanced societies, women simply don't care about getting married more and more, it doesn't matter whether there is a hypothetical balance, at the end of the day, or not when no one ever reaches that ceiling anyways.

"One child policy" is a non-factor for any kind of serious discussion. If you don't get this is a cultural issue, you are an idiot. Did Japan and SK have "OnE cHiLd PoLiCy"???

In the link above, East Asians have even higher marriage rates than Westerns, but fewer children, what does that tell you? They simply prefer to invest more in their already existing children (so they perform as best as possible), then to make more of them. This is their evolutionary psychology strategy for colder climates.

They are also smarter and can understand more or less upfront all the long-term costs of raising more and more children than blindly venturing into all of that like some other populations. If you don't read about anthropology and evolutionary psychology, you can't realize anything.

It should also be clarified that higher female to male ratio in some European countries (mostly Russia) is due to the effects of ww2 or possibly in some smaller countries due to men emigrating for migrant labor.

Normal human ratio is ever slightly more men, seen in countries with no special demographic upsets. Also the "extra" females from the WW2 generation don't factor into fertility, having more 70+ yr olds women obviously doesn't count towards that.