China demographics thread.

[KYli]

Seems like I had a different view of things. I believed that US population (about 35%) were high income ( can afford good houses like the ones you pointed out). And I believed it was because of appreciation of land prices, Social mobility and investments into stocks (while people of most other countries put money in banks).

I underestimated US income inequality.

It is not wrong to say that many American households earn more than $100,000 annually. But the cost of living in NYC/San Francisco is substantially higher than in Florida. At the same time you earn far less in Florida than NYC even if you hold the same job.

For example, the starting salary for a teacher in NYC is $57000 and for a two income household it would be over $100,000. However, they couldn't afford a house like that in NYC which could cost from 1 million for 2 hours commute or 5-10 millions in prime location. For comparison, the same teacher would earn $39000 in Florida and for two income household it would be $78000 but they wouldn't afford $650,000 home. In the end, both family would end up unable to afford a house like this.

Beside don't underestimate tax and health insurance that would eat up a big chunk of income.

 

[AndrewS]

It is not wrong to say that many American households earn more than $100,000 annually. But the cost of living in NYC/San Francisco is substantially higher than in Florida. At the same time you earn far less in Florida than NYC even if you hold the same job.

For example, the starting salary for a teacher in NYC is $57000 and for a two income household it would be over $100,000. However, they couldn't afford a house like that in NYC which could cost from 1 million for 2 hours commute or 5-10 millions in prime location. For comparison, the same teacher would earn $39000 in Florida and for two income household it would be $78000 but they wouldn't afford $650,000 home. In the end, both family would end up unable to afford a house like this.

Beside don't underestimate tax and health insurance that would eat up a big chunk of income.

The median house in the USA is only $200K

Depending on where you are, it can buy you a substantial house

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[FishingLinbei]

Lmao I was obviously talking about the graph. Does anyone really think that birth rates almost disappeared in a country with 1.4bn population? Lol, maybe its time for you to go back to school and learn some critical thinking I say.

Also the last 3 years, Birth rates COLLAPSED. Did you see that? And then think that it collaped even further in 2020 (I think the chart goes until 2019, not sure though).

China is basically fighting a life and death battle currently to stop this catastrophic decline.

Lmao, imagine thinking that with a 10mln births per annum in China that everything is ok hahaha.

China is going downhill very fast if it doesn't take drastic measures NOW. Not in 2, not in 5, not in 10 years with their usual bs "studies, reports, pilot programs, consultation etc" excuses

Facts, CPC is failing on this right now and I hold them 100% responsible for not doing ANYTHING since 2000

You are definitively correct, that‘s an extremely severe challenge for China. I’ve learned from somewhere that the birth rates is already below developed countries like Germany and Korea (not sure)? Cannot image the population collapse in not long distant future and CCP may have to introduce foreign labor?

 

[KYli]

The median house in the USA is only $200K

Depending on where you are, it can buy you a substantial house

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You would need to find a job in those places that paid decent salary first. And all those houses in the article are average homes which are under 2000 SQ feet not the newer homes which are over 3000 SQ feet.

 

[siegecrossbow]

You are definitively correct, that‘s an extremely severe challenge for China. I’ve learned from somewhere that the birth rates is already below developed countries like Germany and Korea (not sure)? Cannot image the population collapse in not long distant future and CCP may have to introduce foreign labor?

In the North Eastern provinces population already started decreasing on a year to year basis.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

You are definitively correct, that‘s an extremely severe challenge for China. I’ve learned from somewhere that the birth rates is already below developed countries like Germany and Korea (not sure)? Cannot image the population collapse in not long distant future and CCP may have to introduce foreign labor?

South Korea does have a declining population, and yes, developed countries typically hit that peak. The US's population went up, but one has to pay attention to the demographics for that since certain groups of people are, bluntly speaking, of low caliber. However, I don't think foreign labor is needed due to the advent of automation and other countries accepting the low-end manufacturing jobs of China. Plus, the Chinese are currently watching the absolute s**tstorm of a situation in multicultural countries like the US. That and along with the ferocious opposition towards a lawmaker's suggestion to make it easier for foreigners to get a Chinese green card indicate to me that the possibility of the introduction of foreign labor is very low.

 

[FishingLinbei]

South Korea does have a declining population, and yes, developed countries typically hit that peak. The US's population went up, but one has to pay attention to the demographics for that since certain groups of people are, bluntly speaking, of low caliber. However, I don't think foreign labor is needed due to the advent of automation and other countries accepting the low-end manufacturing jobs of China. Plus, the Chinese are currently watching the absolute s**tstorm of a situation in multicultural countries like the US. That and along with the ferocious opposition towards a lawmaker's suggestion to make it easier for foreigners to get a Chinese green card indicate to me that the possibility of the introduction of foreign labor is very low.

not all jobs can be replaced by machine, babysitters and domestic workers (also for elders) are really popular in Chinese middle class due to their long work time.

 

[Lethe]

You are definitively correct, that‘s an extremely severe challenge for China. I’ve learned from somewhere that the birth rates is already below developed countries like Germany and Korea (not sure)? Cannot image the population collapse in not long distant future and CCP may have to introduce foreign labor?

UN World Population Prospects 2019 ed. total fertility rate (TFR*) estimates for 2015-2020 period, selected countries:

Nigeria: 5.42
India: 2.24
Russia: 1.82
USA: 1.78
UK: 1.75
China: 1.69
Germany: 1.59
Japan: 1.37
Republic of Korea: 1.11

* The average number of live births a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality. It is expressed as live births per woman.

 

[KenC]

UN World Population Prospects 2019 ed. total fertility rate (TFR*) estimates for 2015-2020 period, selected countries:

Nigeria: 5.42
India: 2.24
Russia: 1.82
USA: 1.78
UK: 1.75
China: 1.69
Germany: 1.59
Japan: 1.37
Republic of Korea: 1.11

* The average number of live births a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality. It is expressed as live births per woman.

If that's the case, it much ado about nothing in the case of China. China's figure is significantly higher than Korea/Japan and slightly below US/UK.
Come on, babysitters and domestic workers as jobs of the future ? As youngsters of China get more educated and are fulfilling their dreams, how many want to be domestic workers and babysitters?

I'll be more worried about whether the earth can really cope with population increase given the limited earth resources, particularly water. Already those countries are not even developed yet, and have become democratic. With democracy, it is all about talks and getting votes, very little how to deal with the future given the more limited resources per capita.

 

[gadgetcool5]

The median house in the USA is only $200K

Depending on where you are, it can buy you a substantial house

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This is already badly outdated from 2017.

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The median home price is now $344,000. But this is including a lot of townhouses and condos that are sold to single mothers and young couples with no kids. If you talk about a FAMILY OF FOUR then the house I posted is not out of average at all. Stop using starting teacher's salaries and acting like it is representative. Teaching is considered a very low paying/underpaid job. And people on starting teacher's salaries coming out of college or teaching school at age 22 don't already have a family of four. The average age of marriage in the US is 32. After that is children. We are talking about people who are already 35 and 40 and established in their careers, usually combining two incomes. They are making way higher than the "median" income. You can get that house in Dade City, FL for a mortgage payment of $2,000 a month, which the average FAMILY OF FOUR can afford:

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Anyway the point is that Americans live in way too big houses that are environmentally unfriendly.