China demographics thread.

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
You can think of it that way, though it doesn't make a difference to reality.

You should ideally also think that soft power, cultural ties etc. do matter.



Here, it is:

These are all the first authors in every Nature (flagship) journal in the month of March. I only included first author because they do most of the work. I tried compiling all authors, but it was just getting too long of a process, but the numbers in all authors will be even more skewed. By my calculation at bottom out of 64 authors with romanized chinese names (not even english first name), 26.33 were in China. Why the decimal? Because some had multiple affiliations, so 1 of them had 3 affiliations, 2 of those in US and 1 in China.

Hence, don't just rely on these publicized numbers, these often don't capture underlying trends. Highly skilled Chinese still who come to the US still overwhelmingly decide to stay in the US.

View attachment 128142


Again, one such measure some data scientist made somewhere doesn't reflect everything. Cross Pollination is happening quite a lot. A lot of US R&D itself is even been undertaken in India.

These are all the first authors in every Nature (flagship) journal in the month of March. I only included first author because they do most of the work. I tried compiling all authors, but it was just getting too long of a process, but the numbers in all authors will be even more skewed. By my calculation at bottom out of 64 authors with romanized chinese names (not even english first name), 26.33 were in China. Why the decimal? Because some had multiple affiliations, so 1 of them had 3 affiliations, 2 of those in US and 1 in China.
Your statistics do not measure migration of academics, only of the affiliation of graduate students. The OECD statistics are a direct measure of migration. Nature journal itself is just 1 journal, not including the specialist journals. Nature Index is very comprehensive and captures a completely different picture, especially if you exclude biology and medicine.

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Again, one such measure some data scientist made somewhere doesn't reflect everything. Cross Pollination is happening quite a lot. A lot of US R&D itself is even been undertaken in India.
Indian life expectancy, literacy, IP production, scientific paper production, etc. are very low.

That corroborates the low economic complexity data.
 

asiandemographer

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No, this is wrong. Military and economic power will make others align interests with you, embrace your culture, adopt your values and act as your allies, because the most important thing is, nobody wants to be on the losing side. The only marked deviation from this is extreme religious conflict.

That is true to an extent, but only to an extent. Example: Finland during USSR times. Due to exceptional USSR conventional and nuclear superiority, Finland kept itself neutral, but never really turned to the USSR camp.

Military and Hard Power are real and very important. But they are not everything.

The US has military dominance and life trumps money. Right now the US can inflict much more pain on Australia than China can mitigate through reward or compete with in punishment. If the Chinese military was at a point where the US military could not operate with credibility ad relevence in the area, Aussies would take the first off-ramp China offered. Because the other choice would be to get turned into a big North Korea and get bullied by a Chinese-leaning Indonesia which would rapidly eclipse them in economics, technology and military under Chinese guidance.

A countries success depends on external environment as well as its own innate capability. Your point is like what some Americans like to make when they say that they essentially built China's success.

They calculated that little Japan would not win. If they thought that Japan would conquer Ming and Korea would get turned into a slave colony for refusing to help Japan, they would have complied.

For Japanese case yes, however later down the line when the Manchus started conquering the Ming, Joseon still sent help for Ming even in the very later stages of the battle when Qing victory looked likely.



India is always a country with high potential on paper but absolutely no ability to put that potential into use. At the end of WWII, India was in a stronger position than China. Today, it is far behind. That's because Indian culture is one that whitewashes failures into successes, thus removing all impetus to improve and the country is hobbled by religious inefficiency. All the successful Indians leave India and never want to go back.

India is the country that accidentally flips warships on launch, submerges submarines without closing the hatch, gets 7 friendly kills and 0 intentional kills in operations against Pakistan, has soldiers committing suicide in frozen rivers rather than fight the Chinese on the shores, loots iPhone factories when Apple tries setting up in India, fires at Saturn thinking it's a Chinese drone, etc.... etc... Deeply ingrained culture of incompetence and rewarding incompetence to cover it up.

You are looking only at the most negative Indian news and extrapolating it to make an image of India as a whole. Let me respond in depth regarding India related points that you and @FairAndUnbiased raised separately.

Your statistics do not measure migration of academics, only of the affiliation of graduate students. The OECD statistics are a direct measure of migration. Nature journal itself is just 1 journal, not including the specialist journals. Nature Index is very comprehensive and captures a completely different picture, especially if you exclude biology and medicine.

I have studied and followed the Nature Index for a very long time, and you are right that China does perform really well in Nature Index. However, Nature Index has many subindices. One of them takes into account only Science and Nature, because they are the most prestigious journals and one step ahead of others. Hence, it makes sense to only look at Nature (or Science) for exceptionally good science. (Obviously Nature and Science are not the only places for exceptional science, but they serve as a good proxy). For that the results:

1713254987048.png

Indian life expectancy, literacy, IP production, scientific paper production, etc. are very low.

That corroborates the low economic complexity data.

Will combine and respond for India related topics.
 

asiandemographer

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The 1963 peak? 7.5 births per woman? Senegal level numbers. Were those good times? Was China a superpower then? Or is China much stronger now? Some people have an infatuation as if the less people the less power the country has, but they ignore the data that the country is rising and the contributing middle class is rising. It's only in their minds do population and birth rate correlate positively with national strength.

I meant overall number of births not births per woman.

And yet, 1. China published more total and more top-ranked papers than the US. 2. America's strategy of using foreigners is badly compromised due to lack of loyalty. Many are here to study and go home. Some leave whenever a higher offer is made. Others stay and don't mind making money on side advising foreign rivals. When a foreign scientist sees America come into conflict with his home country, what goes through his mind? America's tech army is not made of loyal American soldiers but of mercenaries for sale to the highest bidder.

1 is not true. There are various ways of measuring top-ranked papers, and in the absolute highest venues, China is still behind the US. Like in the Nature and Science journals.

I have met many immigrants to America who are perhaps more loyal to America than native people. Even during the early half of the 20th century, America was fueled by German Immigrants and Scientists. While some people will move back and some will have some loyalty to their home countries, overwhelmingly people start working for US interests.

Yes, it shows that much of America's power base is flimsy. I don't know how you think, but if I was in a competition against China and half my engineering team whom I rely on are Chinese, I'd be very very nervous, not proud or happy.

It's not half, probably 20-25%. And many of these people don't like it back in China due to a number of reasons.

But it is getting automated away. Some have already been done, others there is progress towards it. Right now, the tractors that harvest crops allow a few people to do the work of an army that was required before. Other chores that are more intricate, such as selecting which fruits to pick and sort, are still being done manually but just like how robots can now do waitering work and food delivery, technology is moving in a way that these jobs can be taken over too.

Not at nearly sufficient pace. This is why Japan/South Korea are already facing huge labor issues and they are trying to import seasonal low-skill labor.

Negative incentives trigger rebellious thought. By rewarding those who have many kids and giving nothing to those who have none, that is already negative enough. To put negative stigma on childlessness is cruel if for no other reason than that some people want to but cannot have kids.

The feeling of being discriminated against is arguably worse and more insulting than the actual taxes that would have been paid.

I think ultimately, the biggest negative reinforcement that people will have against being childless is seeing droves of childless people grow older, developing unrequited affections for relatives' or friends' children due to the void in their lives, only to ultimately die alone, unsupported and pitifully reflecting on their passing lives with regret and sorrow. Before people see this, they just think it's the government trying to force them to do things they don't want to do.
 

asiandemographer

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Or we can never start that at all. Having people register their dates of marriage to start the countdown clock for how many kids they need to have to avoid taxation is the perfect way to drop the marriage rate and enter into a society of lovers just living together without official paperwork to avoid such a stress.

Marriage is not important. Marriage and Kids should be separated from each other.

The way is gonna be to:

1. surpass the US and enter a phase of maintenance instead of fervent improvement, thus reducing the workload needed

2. enhance automation so that more is produced per capita to improve quality of life

3. engage in more city building so that, with the already coming population drop, there is much more space resource with cheaper larger housing appropriate for bigger families (TRF is much lower in densely crowded cities than suburban areas in the US)

4. use media to depict the large Chinese family as a sign of wealth. The image of the fashionable city-slicker is some young well-groomed CEO with no kids and working 80 hour weeks and the image of a country peasant is one who has several kids and spends time taking care of them. That needs to change and Chinese media should depict the warmth and genetic riches of a big family while depicting those who have invested all of their life energy into amassing wealth and power as people who will come up empty in the long run because we all die and money is never a legacy while the children who live on will be the only thing that's worth it.

We may not be ready for 4 because we are on the cusp of overtaking the US so those working in overdrive should not be thrown under the bus and suddenly have their work distracted by they questioning their sometimes already too late life choices. And China's population is still absolutely huge so we can afford to sprint some more against the US before making efforts to simmer down towards a more relaxed higher TRF nation.

Yes, cultural change is important. What is also important is that work cultures change. You can't have people working 996 and then expect them to also raised more than 2 kids.

China needs to break away from East Asian model of corporate repression of workers. Japan/SoKo and all other East Asian societies impose high cost of living (specially property/rent) and brutal work hours on people. This model has to change.

Another point while you're at it: the biggest reason for which I am against punitive measures for childlessness is that people are split into 2 kinds, those who want kids and those who don't.

Those who don't want kids will never be punished into having them. There is no tax that you could levy on them that would make them instead think that life would be easier to just have kids because having kids turns one's life into a whole new situation. The situation is that now, your life is no longer about you but about catering to the growth and needs of your children. The people who don't want kids are selfish; they don't want to have anyone they need to take care of and they don't care that they are denying their parents the joy of ever having grandkids. They don't care about anyone other themselves and their ability to go on vacation, have free time, and spend money on their own desires. These people are good only to be used for what they can produce for the country when they are capable, and to be let go to pass peacefully when they retire. Their contributions represent a substantial part of China's power in this critical moment fighting against the US and the West. And for this, if you put punitive taxes on them, it would only drive them to go somewhere else and use their abilities to help a rival nation, for the pay and lifestyle offered, of course. Even if you could make them have kids, you shouldn't want to. Parents imbue kids with their own values and they will raise self-centered kids who want to take from society rather than contribute to it. They may even be deliquents because of lack of care and a perceived unwelcomness surrounding the circumstances for which they were born. That's not the type of people China needs so let them live out their useful years and then let them die in peace and die out.

The people we want to focus on are the people who want to have kids but either biologically can't or are hindered from doing so by financial strain. For the former, science is the answer and we're working on it. But for the latter, it's massive tax breaks, governmental financial support, guaranteed full scholarships, pay raises, preferential treatment for housing, free lifetime passes to all public transport, all public services, to all parks, museums, movies, even the private ones (government will pay for them a heavily discounted rate) basically a government-backed AAA pass on steroids. That will induce these people to have kids and have more and more kids. The guys who have been here longer than you know that I've had 1 kid by surrogacy, am currently awaiting my second child, and plan to do 2 more, all by surrogacy. That's how many I think I can afford to care for and have time to educate. If I thought I could do more, I would; I'd love to do 10+ if I could because my children are my genetic legacy. So by subsidizing this, we can make it so that people who understand the importance of children can have as many kids as they want and they can represent the next generation of China while the childless fade out as they die from age.

This is why I think all rewards, no punishment is the way forward. We don't need to bring up the TRF for all Chinese, just double overtime for those who want to be helped while leaving those who are beyond help to their own fate.

Having no tax penalty on the childless but giving tax advantage to those with children is already an implicit wealth transfer to those with children. You can term it in whatever way, but there has to be a transfer of wealth and taxes to those with children to generate. Obviously I think the softer measures should be tried first, but this is such a big problem that a lot of steps should be undertaken.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
That is true to an extent, but only to an extent. Example: Finland during USSR times. Due to exceptional USSR conventional and nuclear superiority, Finland kept itself neutral, but never really turned to the USSR camp.

Military and Hard Power are real and very important. But they are not everything.
No, hard power is always everything. The USSR was in a hard power struggle with the US. It was not dominant. If the US fell and the USSR issued an ultimatum from a position of unrivaled power for Finland to join or be attacked, Finland would join.
A countries success depends on external environment as well as its own innate capability.
That's particularly true for small countries, which is why they must always seek the greater pole of hard power.
Your point is like what some Americans like to make when they say that they essentially built China's success.
I see no parallels; you will need to be more specific.
For Japanese case yes, however later down the line when the Manchus started conquering the Ming, Joseon still sent help for Ming even in the very later stages of the battle when Qing victory looked likely.
For every victory, there is a defeat. They were not defeated because they wanted to uphold some soft power at the cost of their lives; they were defeated because they lacked hard power. The losing side miscalculated thinking they could win.
You are looking only at the most negative Indian news and extrapolating it to make an image of India as a whole. Let me respond in depth regarding India related points that you and @FairAndUnbiased raised separately.
Ok... I really don't even want to talk about them because they're losers. We have so much positive energy in China; we compete with the US and the West. India's like a stain on a white tablecloth in this conversation... but OK, whatever. If that's what you want to talk about.
I meant overall number of births not births per woman.
What a funny thing to say. Those 2 are very much related, aren't they??
1 is not true. There are various ways of measuring top-ranked papers, and in the absolute highest venues, China is still behind the US. Like in the Nature and Science journals.
No, it is true; high impact papers isn't defined by only Nature and Science. That's moving the goalpost. If you keep moving the goalpost like that A will never surpass B because you can keep increasing the stringency and excluding venues at which A excels until you are at literally only 1 thing and B can hold on due to actual control of the journal.
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I have met many immigrants to America who are perhaps more loyal to America than native people.
I've met those. They usually suffered political persecution in their home countries and lived extremely shitty lives. Even then, I don't accept their excuse; there is never a reason to betray your own country, even if your country betrays you. That is the fortitude real men must carry. These people you mention are not very useful people; their lives are focused on growing thier little mounds of dirt that they're so happy to have compared with the squalor offered to them at home.
Even during the early half of the 20th century, America was fueled by German Immigrants and Scientists. While some people will move back and some will have some loyalty to their home countries, overwhelmingly people start working for US interests.
1. I'm not familiar with Germans or what they do so if you want to claim that they overwhelmingly supported the US against Germany during WWII, then you'll need some evidence and citations.

2. Germans are Caucasian and can very easily be absorbed into American society. Asians have a racial divide to always remind us that we are not them.
It's not half, probably 20-25%.
20-25% of what? I simply threw a number out there and an unspecified field as an example. But Chinese scientists comprise a large population of the American tech landscape across the board. In my field of genetics, I would say it's half Chinese.
And many of these people don't like it back in China due to a number of reasons.
This will really need some citation. And I don't even know what that means. There's things that we dislike about all the places we live in. In China, I'm going to dislike many things, like my children's elementary school teachers expecting bribes or that I only own the house I buy for 70 years. In the US, I dislike more fundamental things, like being a minority in general or the mass shootings that happen on average more than once a day. But where do these people land? More than 80% in China, and that was in 2020; the number rises every year.
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Not at nearly sufficient pace. This is why Japan/South Korea are already facing huge labor issues and they are trying to import seasonal low-skill labor.
China's best at stepping up the pace of technology. The argument that China's going to have a labor shortage cannot coexist with the complaint of high youth unemployment. If they do coincide, then it's a cultural issue of refusal to do low wage labor rather than a population issue.
Marriage is not important. Marriage and Kids should be separated from each other.
That is probably the wrongest thing you have said. Children need to grow up in a secure family with loving parents that instill the correct values into the child. There are peoples in the US that are famous for having many children (with different partners) though often times remain unmarried and some do not even know the identities of their fathers. These people are also known for low achievement despite their growing population in the US. China. MUST. NOT. BE. LIKE. THEM.
Yes, cultural change is important. What is also important is that work cultures change. You can't have people working 996 and then expect them to also raised more than 2 kids.

China needs to break away from East Asian model of corporate repression of workers. Japan/SoKo and all other East Asian societies impose high cost of living (specially property/rent) and brutal work hours on people. This model has to change.
OK, that is fine but right now might not be the right time. It seems we are in a final sprint to overtake the US so easing up to enjoy life may not be the right choice at this moment. In the long term, we do need to move in that direction.
Having no tax penalty on the childless but giving tax advantage to those with children is already an implicit wealth transfer to those with children.
You can term it in whatever way, but there has to be a transfer of wealth and taxes to those with children to generate. Obviously I think the softer measures should be tried first, but this is such a big problem that a lot of steps should be undertaken.
I've already addressed that; we do not need to tax the childless but simply reduce their portion of wealth by the inflation caused by the positive incentives given to those with children. We do not want to outwardly penalize people for this personal choice; it's very insulting. But the effect would be achieved anyway. No need to rephrase this unless you want to argue against it.
 
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tokenanalyst

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Marriage is not important. Marriage and Kids should be separated from each other.
That is what society needs, a fatherless society, that will surely create well adjusted boys and a girls. What else we need? A Onlyfans economy?
China needs to break away from East Asian model of corporate repression of workers. Japan/SoKo and all other East Asian societies impose high cost of living (specially property/rent) and brutal work hours on people. This model has to change.
A least we agree on that.
 

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have studied and followed the Nature Index for a very long time, and you are right that China does perform really well in Nature Index. However, Nature Index has many subindices. One of them takes into account only Science and Nature, because they are the most prestigious journals and one step ahead of others. Hence, it makes sense to only look at Nature (or Science) for exceptionally good science. (Obviously Nature and Science are not the only places for exceptional science, but they serve as a good proxy). For that the results:

View attachment 128144
It would be ludicrous to solely focus on Nature and Science and ignore the other journals considered by the Nature Index...any scientist would tell you that most breakthroughs are not published in those two journals, although many are

Nature and Science are indeed the most prestigious scientific journals, but any paper published in the 145 journals considered by the Nature Index is considered elite...

Here is the list:
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azn_cyniq

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It would be ludicrous to solely focus on Nature and Science and ignore the other journals considered by the Nature Index...any scientist would tell you that most breakthroughs are not published in those two journals, although many are

Nature and Science are indeed the most prestigious scientific journals, but any paper published in the 145 journals considered by the Nature Index is considered elite...

Here is the list:
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I see that you're a geneticist. Perhaps most breakthroughs in that field are published in Nature and Science, but that is definitely not the case for the physical sciences. For instance:

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China is a laggard in the biological sciences, so there is still a lot of work to do on that front

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What is also important is that work cultures change. You can't have people working 996 and then expect them to also raised more than 2 kids.

China needs to break away from East Asian model of corporate repression of workers. Japan/SoKo and all other East Asian societies impose high cost of living (specially property/rent) and brutal work hours on people. This model has to change.

It needs to change, but how? The extreme competitiveness in East Asian societies coupled with East Asian culture makes this extremely difficult. Even in the US, where there is relatively less competition, generally more relaxed cultural attitudes towards work, and a higher priority placed on work-life-balance, the trend has been moving toward longer working hours while the growth of incomes can no longer keep pace with the increases in housing costs. Looking at both the lower and higher stratum of income in the US, the number of hours worked is trending towards 996. Even with the relatively more relaxed working hours of the middle stratum of income, birth rate in US is also below replacement.

China's best at stepping up the pace of technology. The argument that China's going to have a labor shortage cannot coexist with the complaint of high youth unemployment. If they do coincide, then it's a cultural issue of refusal to do low wage labor rather than a population issue.

Whether you classify it as a cultural issue or a population issue, the issue still remains. China was built by a generation of hard working migrant workers from underdeveloped rural areas. You cannot expect the same from the generation of young Chinese today that grew up in one-child households in the city whom have never had to do physical labor their entire lives. Automation will dramatically reduce the amount of labor needed, but we are decades away from reaching a point where technology can entirely replace manual labor. The US is being plagued by this same issue - the US was built up by immigrants doing hard physical labor for much of its history. When immigrant labor became no longer sufficient, the cost of physical labor skyrocketed, and it becomes too expensive to build infrastructure and factories.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Whether you classify it as a cultural issue or a population issue, the issue still remains. China was built by a generation of hard working migrant workers from underdeveloped rural areas. You cannot expect the same from the generation of young Chinese today that grew up in one-child households in the city whom have never had to do physical labor their entire lives. Automation will dramatically reduce the amount of labor needed, but we are decades away from reaching a point where technology can entirely replace manual labor. The US is being plagued by this same issue - the US was built up by immigrants doing hard physical labor for much of its history. When immigrant labor became no longer sufficient, the cost of physical labor skyrocketed, and it becomes too expensive to build infrastructure and factories.
The difference between a cultural issue and a population issue is that the former can be rectified immediately by necessity while the latter takes decades to rectify. A starving young college grad will be driven by need to set his ego aside and do menial labor until the oppertunity comes for him to begin his career. A person who does not exist... can't... and it takes 18+ years to make him exist. The latter is a much larger problem.

While we are decades away from the point where automation can totally replace manual labor, we are at least as far away from requiring that due to severe labor shortage. As automation increases, like now, we can also afford to gradually decrease the physical labor supply (and hopefully replace it with educated white collar mental labor but even if some of it is replaced with nothing, we'll still carry on fine). The key is to prevent this labor supply from decreasing faster than automation can replace.
 
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