China demographics thread.

[thailand_guy]

As I outlined, doing a year by year comparison of this is not going to get anywhere. This is a problem like climate change, meaning it manifests slowly, it's very difficult to solve, and China will be far more capable of solving it in the future than it is today. Certain headcases in this thread are advocating the equivalent of China shutting down every single coal plant it has this year - that just isn't going to work. It's going to take a complex mix of policies over many years and correct over a long period of time. It's worthless to draw trends from a single year's data.

My point was that you can't blame COVID for trends that started before COVID and when you have *years* of data of declining aggregate number of births. Going above replacement is obviously ideal but that's unlikely. Though imo, since China has a fairly competent bureaucracy and childbearing is a largely cultural phenomea, China might be able to pull the rabbit out of a hat, yet again.

If you want to worry about something, don't worry about demographics, worry about democracy. Because if China "democratizes", everything I outlined will be blown away like dust in the wind. China won't be able to solve any of its problems, and will just drift toward failure like the other East Asian "democratic" states.

Don't think anyone thinks the CCP is in any danger

 

[KYli]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[Coalescence]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

IVF and artificial womb might actually become imperative in the future...

 

[gadgetcool5]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Ok, China's average monthly income is for a man and a woman is 17,000 yuan.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The monthly taxable income at that rate is 20%

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The taxable income deduction is 1,000 yuan

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So therefore, this policy will reduce the monthly tax burden for the average two-income household with a child by 1,000 x 20% = 200 yuan a month, or about $31 a month.

I mean, it's good that they are doing something, but this is hardly anything...

 

[Abominable]

What China shouldn't do is copy methods used in the west to increase birth rates. They're usually financial incentives or tax breaks, and don't usually work. They are used because there aren't any other options in the west to increase fertility rates.

The advantage of being a one party country is you can actually enact policies that work. Limit and ban contraception and abortions (unless you have already had a preselected number of children), limit career progression for unmarried or childless adults. Make sure media and entertainment promotes family values rather than western ones.

Aiming for a TFR of 3 should be the eventual goal and can easily be achieved within a decade. It will be seen as cruel and oppressive by the west, but most people are happy to have children and is not as bad as the one child policy.

 

[canniBUS]

What China shouldn't do is copy methods used in the west to increase birth rates. They're usually financial incentives or tax breaks, and don't usually work. They are used because there aren't any other options in the west to increase fertility rates.

The advantage of being a one party country is you can actually enact policies that work. Limit and ban contraception and abortions (unless you have already had a preselected number of children), limit career progression for unmarried or childless adults. Make sure media and entertainment promotes family values rather than western ones.

Aiming for a TFR of 3 should be the eventual goal and can easily be achieved within a decade. It will be seen as cruel and oppressive by the west, but most people are happy to have children and is not as bad as the one child policy.

Of the OECD countries, Norway had a baby boom during Covid. We all know the reasons for why, it's due to Norway's substantial social welfare measures. Getting people to have children is theoretically easy, reduce the cost of living and the cost of raising children. But implementing effective and sustainable measures for reducing living expenses is not easy.

 

[Will76]

What China shouldn't do is copy methods used in the west to increase birth rates. They're usually financial incentives or tax breaks, and don't usually work. They are used because there aren't any other options in the west to increase fertility rates.

The advantage of being a one party country is you can actually enact policies that work. Limit and ban contraception and abortions (unless you have already had a preselected number of children), limit career progression for unmarried or childless adults. Make sure media and entertainment promotes family values rather than western ones.

Aiming for a TFR of 3 should be the eventual goal and can easily be achieved within a decade. It will be seen as cruel and oppressive by the west, but most people are happy to have children and is not as bad as the one child policy.

China should always promote family values. western values are individualistic and selfish. and its shown on how broken and separate they are from eachother.

 

[Abominable]

China should always promote family values. western values are individualistic and selfish. and its shown on how broken and separate they are from eachother.

Not to mention the west is happy to correct it's demographic problems through mass immigration. If they ever stopped doing that they would end up facing Japanese style economic stagnation if not worse.

Because of it's large size its not something China can do, even if it wanted to.

 

[Chilled_k6]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Anhui now has a higher average age of marriage than S Korea and Japan at 33 years old. Even a more rural province is this high...? This is a double whammy where you've got the young cohort already decreasing. The young cohort delays marriage too long which increases chances of infertility. Once again the high costs of living is cited as the main contributing factor.

China should always promote family values. western values are individualistic and selfish. and its shown on how broken and separate they are from eachother.

I think in modern Chinese society, a lot of people tend to value material well being over creating a new family. Now that the country has gotten much wealthier it needs to be rebalanced to have any sustainable change. Reducing living costs will only help so much.

 

[OppositeDay]

State-owned companies and government offices should start cutting pay to people over 35 and without kids. Tech companies are already firing over 35s anyway.