China can and will achieve total air superiority over Taiwan

Nop, I am not making any side look good or bad, just stating a simple fact.

I came to this conclusion after viewng a map of Taiwanese airforce bases





If you look at the first map you can see that the majority of the major taiwanese airbases are located on the western coastal area. And if you take a look at the second map, it is a geographical map of Taiwan, you can see that most of these airbases are located on openplains.

and there lies china's key to achieve total air superiority over Taiwan.

these airbases were build by the Taiwanese before the Chinese deployed those missiles and at a time when the Taiwanese air force was far superior than the Chinese. They were designed to support a Taiwnese invasion of the mainland which we know will never come.

Now, I dont have the exact figure, but I believe the Chinese has some over 600 missiles deployed near the strait. Now even if only a few of them actually hits those airbases it would mean disaster to the Taiwanese. Because if there is a big holes on the runways it pretty much meant that the airbases will be useless since no planes can land to refuel or take off to intercept Chinese fighters and bombers.

if those this scenario does happens. the Taiwanese will be forced to use the few airbases they had on the eastern side of the isle, or force land in either Japan or South Korea.

at this point I can be fairly certain to say that the PLA airforce would have total air superiority over Taiwan.

the few ways I see the Taiwanese to counter this is to either start building more airbases in the east coast of Taiwan and moves the majority of the Taiwanese airforce to the east. Or focus more on unconventional warfare, such as special forces and stall the Chinese invasion force if it ever comes.

I read a while ago that Taiwan had underground airbases in mountains on the east side of the island. And this came out soon after the story about North Korea having similar bases hidden in mountains to which some Pentagon official said was a bad idea because all the enemy has to do is bomb the entrance and you just entombed all your assets with just one bomb.

AssassinsMace said:

I read a while ago that Taiwan had underground airbases in mountains on the east side of the island. And this came out soon after the story about North Korea having similar bases hidden in mountains to which some Pentagon official said was a bad idea because all the enemy has to do is bomb the entrance and you just entombed all your assets with just one bomb.

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It would be the same case with the openbases anyway. They just need to drop one missile on the runway that can make a considerable size hole and the airbase would be finished.

Thge thing with the "cave" airbase isthat at least your airbases will have a better chance at surviving the initial strike by the enemy, and thats what the Taiwanese needs; to hold on for as long as possible.

That's if you can get them out of there. As the Pentagon official said in regard to North Korea's, they would be sealed in there like an Egyptian tomb. Open air... you'll need more than one weapon to render the base out of commission unlike just one or a few with an underground facility.

It's true that a bomb to the entrance of a tunnel will entomb anything inside it. But that works in the N.Korean context with respect to America having air superiority. For Taiwan, they built their cave entrances in mountains with the entrances facing East - that means that China's SRBMs, being ballistic, will not be able to close off the entrances since their trajectory will make them hit the mountain first. Look, don't think the ROC are idiots, they are not.

Those 600 SRBMs look impressive to most, but they are also far less effective than many Chinese give them credit for. They are inaccurate (some have GPS, but if you think that in a Taiwan conflict the GPS are not going to be scrambled, your head is the one scrambled. And GLONASS and Beidou do not provide the same level of accuracy), and against hardened targets only a direct hit will take out the target. This means that in many cases, multiple missiles will be needed to be fired at important targets in order to ensure a kill. Also, runways can be repaired very quickly - in a matter of a few hours at most. Take into account that there are multiple runways, and that multiple missiles will be required to disable a runway, then you see yourself running out of missiles VERY fast. Don't forget to consider that missiles malfunction too - even America's ICBMs had a failure rate that was not insignificant and had to be taken into account by its planners.

Look here for a good analysis of the actual threat that those missiles represent:

But that's precisely why the Chinese brought in MKKs, with the missiles like the Kh-59ME with TV-EO seekers. They can standoff, launch these missile, and I will say that of all the air to ground guidance systems, TV-EO is even more accurate than LGB. INS/GPS is third in line behind these.

The PLAAF also bought KAB-500kr and KAB-1500kr (that one is a 1500kg bomb) that can be used to seal these bunkers shut.

To add to that, they added H-6Hs with the KD-63 missiles. That's a long range AshM similar to the old Styx but with a turbofan, with TV-EO guidance and a man in the loop. And lastly but not least, you know got JH-7s with the KD-88, which is a YJ-83 adapted to land attack using TV-EO and man in the loop systems.

But then the premise of the first post is gone - air superiority cannot be achieved with SRBMs alone. Many airbases will still be functional, and even those with damaged runways will only be taken out temporarily. Meaning that the airspace will be heavily contested, and thus the MKKs and H-6s will not have an easy job with their missiles. Consider also the additional problem imposed on the launch positions of the MKKs and H-6s by the facing of the entrances, and they will not have an easy time. Add the fact that those EO missiles/bombs are susceptible to their data-links being jammed, and it is not as easy as you imagine.

According to a source I read (The People's Liberation Army and China in Transition, by Stephen J. Flanagan and Michael E. Marti), the source quotes the annual Department of Defense reports to the Congress on PLA modernization, in which it states that "the airpower balance on the Taiwan Strait could favor the PLAAF after 2005." Furthermore, the source states:

"By that time, it would have 80 or more Su-30MKKs, over 100 Su-27SKs, plus the A–50E AWACSs and Il-78M tankers needed to support distant and Taiwan theater strike operations. Su-30MKKs, JH–7s and H–6 bombers will also be able to deliver several new ARMs and LACMs to complement initial SRBM strikes. Initial and follow on PLAAF strikes could be cued by a network of space-based and airborne 168 FISHER reconnaissance systems. What remains of Taiwan’s air force could be quickly dispatched by R–77-armed Sukhois, J–10s, and J–8IIC/H fighters. With air superiority established, the PLA could then proceed with airborne or amphibious assaults designed to force a final political capitulation in Taipei."

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The source then continues to talk about how the sheer numbers of Chinese combat aircraft could mean that one aircraft carrier might not be enough to intervene as "The PLAAF would have enough fighters to attack the carrier’s combat air patrol, while strike aircraft could launch scores of standoff missiles that could saturate closer defenses. If airstrikes could be coordinated with submarine missile strikes and land-based missile strikes, the result could be devastating for the United States."

Personally, I think that the ROCAF is ready for a ballistic missle barrage. There are several reasons for this.

1. The 600-800 ballistic missles that the 2nd artillery has aimed at Taiwan will not only be aimed at air bases. All military related instillations will be targeted. Therefore the number aimed at air bases will be much less.

2. The ROCA has defences. It has several Patriot batteries, PAC-2s and 3s(not sure about 3s). The Legislative Yuan recently approved spending to upgrade the PAC 2s to the PAC 3 standard. Thus many Chinese missles will be intercepted. (Yes I know that the Patriot batteries will be forced to fire in their own defence.)

3. The ROCAF has constructed its airbases to survive that kind of assault. Look at them on Google Earth. I remember seeing one with barely visible entrances into what appeared to be an empty hillside. Also, most of the bases have shelters and revetments to protect against cruise missles.

4. The ROCAF regularly trains to fly off of highways once its runways are knocked out. And runways aren't that hard to repair. It can be done very quickly.

No, ballistic missles will not determine the battle for air supremacy over Taiwan. It will be won or lost by the pilots. :coffee:

Finn McCool said:

Personally, I think that the ROCAF is ready for a ballistic missle barrage. There are several reasons for this.

1. The 600-800 ballistic missles that the 2nd artillery has aimed at Taiwan will not only be aimed at air bases. All military related instillations will be targeted. Therefore the number aimed at air bases will be much less.

2. The ROCA has defences. It has several Patriot batteries, PAC-2s and 3s(not sure about 3s). The Legislative Yuan recently approved spending to upgrade the PAC 2s to the PAC 3 standard. Thus many Chinese missles will be intercepted. (Yes I know that the Patriot batteries will be forced to fire in their own defence.)

3. The ROCAF has constructed its airbases to survive that kind of assault. Look at them on Google Earth. I remember seeing one with barely visible entrances into what appeared to be an empty hillside. Also, most of the bases have shelters and revetments to protect against cruise missles.

4. The ROCAF regularly trains to fly off of highways once its runways are knocked out. And runways aren't that hard to repair. It can be done very quickly.

No, ballistic missles will not determine the battle for air supremacy over Taiwan. It will be won or lost by the pilots. :coffee:

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1. True, I have to give you that. But look at what they may be aimed at: communications, fuel storage, etc. If the pilots do not get the order to scramble from central command, they will still be on the ground and be targets for a follow up attack.

2. They only have PAC-2's, and only 200 of those missiles for 3 batteries. A battery has around 16 launchers all clustered together. These batteries will be placed around targets of more important value than the many airfields Taiwan has, like one near the MoD headquarter, and the other two around other important communications locations. Assuming at best a 50% success rate, around 100 missiles will be intercepted. Taiwan has 600+ missiles pointed at it. 100 missiles intercepted (at best, due to the fact that the PAC-2 and PAC-3 is untested in battle) is a small dent compared to the 500+ missiles still raining down on you.

One of my contacts sent me a message from his contact in Taiwan in regards to those Patriot missiles:

Ammo is a very tricky one to do, because the stocks on hand are very limited
for most kind of high tech weapons. ie. there is plenty of small arms ammo,
artillery shells, mines, etc. and indeed, those stocks have actually been
sharply increased recently. Once you get to high tech consumables like Air
to Air missiles, Surface Air missiles, there is a very small stock on hand
unless it is indigenously manufactured. Even the indigenously manufactured
stuff is limited in many cases by strict control over critical key
components that have to be imported from the USA.

On top of this, there is a very limited number of spare parts --- because
much of the stuff, especially the dated stuff, is hard to get.
Cannibalization can only get you so far. So here they are heavily
dependent on the US to resupply them once the shooting starts. Many of the
components needed to keep systems like the Patriots going are over 30 years
old, and only available from the US military who maintains a very large war
stockpile. For example, where else are you going to get a 1k memory chip
except off an antique shop?

Much of the Taiwan stockpile of munitions and spares are kept in the USA
with the understanding that it will be rushed to Taiwan "upon need", which
is also a great way for the US to keep them on a very short leash.

A reasonable estimate is that there is sufficient stuff for about 2 weeks of
modest combat intensity. The problem with this grand level assessment is
the details as to how you estimate combat intensity.

The problem with doing the calculations is that you are complicated by the
different, and largely incompatible systems the Taiwanese have --- the old
American stuff mixed with newer, the French stuff, and their own IDF all in
an incredible Hodge podge. There is a certain amount of integration that
can be done via the NATO standard, but that is only on a limited basis for
combat interoperability, and it does not extend to parts, logistics,
maintenance, etc. The Taiwanese have compounded the problem by having to
cry uncle to the US (after they bought the Mirages) to get the US to sell
black boxes that at least give them the NATO level of compatibility. They
had the same problem with the Lafayettes being extremely difficult to
integrate with their existing Perry Class Frigates. Again, they cried and
begged Uncle Sam....

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3. Place a nice, crater in some of the runways, plus some cluster munitions on them, and those runways will be out of commission for a few hours, depending on the damage. Airplanes still on the ground. Follow up attacks will further crater the runway and frustrate repair efforts.

4. Don't expect the Chinese to have thought of this. Cluster munitions are a ***** to clean up, and I expect the Chinese to have installed cluster munitions on some of those missiles pointed at those airfields. Taiwan is at most 200km away. A bomber traveling at 600km/h at a economical cruise speed can be over those airfields in less than 20 minutes for follow up attacks. You can't fix a runway while it is still under attack. To effectively disperse aircraft, especially under Taiwan's circumstances will require some sort of VSTOL fighter, such as the Harrier or the upcoming F-35B. Taking fighters off a highway might sound like a good solution, but you have to get the fighters to the highway in the first place. And it is pretty certain that the Chinese will target long stretches of highways near an airfield with something. Anything that does manage to get airborne could be significantly overwhelmed by Chinese fighters roaming overhead.

If I were the Taiwanese, I would do the following:
1. Expedite the hardening of all airfields and communication systems. Ensure that the communication grid has redundancy and is secure. A simulation was done by the Taiwanese military on a possible invasion by China, and the Chinese were able to succeed and reach and enter Taipei due to a communications breakdown on the part of the Taiwanese because central command didn't get the message out to a division that a landing had taken place until it was too late and the local defenders were overwhelmed. Clearly, this has to change.

2. Purchase VSTOL fighters, such as the current AV-8B+ Harrier or the future F-35B immediately to more effectively disperse assets.

3. Purchase more Patriot Missile systems, and on top of that, a purchase of the AEGIS system and the development of some form of a rapid fire laser based anti-missile system is required.

4. The requirement of some form of stand-off cruise missile for disrupting PLA and PLAAF operations is needed. Systems like the Army Tactical Missile System are need to disrupt the PLA from gathering forces to invade. If the US is unwilling to sell the Taiwanese such systems, make available the technology for the Taiwanese to build their own.