China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
- Thread starter peace_lover
- Start date
- Status
First two nuclear processing facilities. They are domestic design developed from another pilot processing facility, eligible for potential WgPu production since they are not bounded by IAEA regulation or agreement with foreign export.
How many tons of WGPu can they produce in a year ?
If both the US and Russia increase their nuclear arsenal, it will be much harder to blame China for doing the same
Each of them can reprocess 2,000 kg RgPu per year at full capacity and the pilot plant can produce 500 kg per year. The fast breeder reactors can supply spent fuels to reprocess 400 kg WgPu per year.
Another question is that how many primary China can make from these WgPu. Rumor said that new primary (not new actually, can date back to 1990s) only need 0.75kg while open sourced US estimations were based on 3-5 kg WgPu each for a primary.
So 900 kg of WGPu per year, almost 1 ton !
The new primary only needs 0.75 kg, why it is so different from the US estimation?
Is it because the US is bullsh!ting again?
If, what you say is true, then 1 year China can make more than 1000 thermonuclear warheads.
No, it is 400 WgPu per year and the actual number is just an estimation. China can't reprocess all plutonium from spent fuel to WgPu and the main purpose is for civilian use.
The plutonium is never the bottleneck for China's nuclear expansion but the production rate of ICBMs, however, is. Heavy water reactor spent fuel and low burnt spent fuel from light water reactor can also be reprocessed into WgPu. It is more money saving to produce WgPu from fast breeder and the production limit is determined by reprocessing capacity.
The data was said by a staff from China Academy of Engineering Physics a.k.a China's Los Alamos. I doubt that it could be too good to be true. FYI US pit has an average 3 kg plutonium.
Nevertheless, the warhead is never the key to MAD. ICBM is, and will be the main difficulty for China to reach parity.
The most preferable deployment date is before 2026, when the new START expires if it still exists. China should contend as a peer nuclear power with US and Russia, deter any nuclear coercion or threat over Taiwan.
China hasn't tested a new ICBM till now, also IF it exists. Whatever it has been decided to put into those silos, there will be three-year schedule to rush to parity, a.k.a 110 ICBMs per year.
But China hasn't even expressed its willingness to discuss an arm control with US and might not be in a rush to parity. In this case, US and Russia may try to "deter" China from reaching parity by increasing their nuclear arsenals. It means China need to deploy more nuclear launchers and warheads, which should be respectively 1,000 launchers and 2,500 ish warheads.
Highest estimation:
6 x 320 silos (DF-45) + 3 x 13 x 18 (DF-41 TEL brigade) + 6 x 30 (DF-5C) + 72 (JL-2A) = 2,874 warheads
530 ICBMs need to be built.
Baseline estimation:
3 x 320 silos (DF-41) + 1.5 x 13 x 18 (DF-31 + DF-41 brigade) + 6 x 30 (DF-5C) + 72 (JL-2A) = 1,563 warheads (START Treaty)
Around 380 ICBMs need to be built.
It is a lot of work still remaining to be done and need to be done quickly.
China did more ballistic missiles test in past 2-3 years than rest of the world combined.
here is the total build up of missile silos.
Last edited:
- Status