China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Kalec]

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Long story short, key takeaways:

1. A new 6th tunnel complete in Lop Nur in the first half of 2022

2. "Increased radiation was detected in the vicinity alongside these developments." Doubt it is true, it is nearly impossible for radiation to penetrate the atmosphere. Could be other way around but definitely not detected by satellite.

Nothing big deal but full of biases in this report.

Anyway, good reference on the new tunnel development. Might be new subcritical nuclear test going on there for new primary design or review.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Anyway, good reference on the new tunnel development. Might be new subcritical nuclear test going on there for new primary design or review.

its an open secret. China increasing stockpile and modernizing its current nuke arsenal. from HGV test to ballistic missiles test to silos construction. defense minster also confirmed about modernization.

 

[davidau]

its an open secret. China increasing stockpile and modernizing its current nuke arsenal. from HGV test to ballistic missiles test to silos construction. defense minster also confirmed about modernization.

China's military modernisation is purely for self-defence. China does not want war, but China is not afraid of war. Any adventurist and hegemonist should take note carefully. Those who play with fire will end up burning itself fatally.

 

[antiterror13]

Do they have any actual reason to think this or just pulling random numbers out? The 18 figure I gave was of actual new construction spotted on satellite (well DF-5s, but I assume all new ones are C's). Would like to see any sources you have on this (incl in Chinese).

I doubt it'd be close to 60, because that's another obscene number of warheads given how many MIRVs these carry.

But some silos are empty ones or with fake DF-5

 

[rambo54]

Tbh, I dunno, but some random dudes on

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claimed that at least 30 new DF-5C is being built, quoting some evidences taken on the ground but not able to publish due to security reason. Personally I hope it is fake because DF-5C is not worth another expansion for economical reason. DF-5C should have a similar throw weight compared with heavy solid ICBM, but require far more personnel to operate.

Also I don't really think there are 18 DF-5C spotted on satellite. I think the most correct figure is 8, which Ben has everyone of them with satellite photos.

I don't know where those "random dudes" ever offered coordinates for their "at least 30 new DF-5C silos".
I had offered the coords for the existing 3x6 DF-5 silos (built in the 70ties for each of the existing SSM BGD - now named 661/631/633) in one of my older posts in this thread.
And I offered the coords of the new DF-5 silos under construction recently in one of my previous posts: 2x4 (for 662 & probably 634 BGD).
I really would appreciate to see coords for more DF-5 silo sites.
Cheers

 

[escobar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554404863626313729

 

[meckhardt98]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554385674706399232

 

[Kalec]

Just as I said before being called "Unironically dumbest post so far.“ in the Taiwan crisis thread, I wasn't pointing out the threats are all bluffing just for the sake of not disappointing the overreacting dudes too much.

No one takes you seriously when you are not nuclear prepared for the showdown. All the bluffing you made is nothing but "you won't do shit".

Can anyone discuss nuclear strategy for China logically without typical:

1. "Actually China has zillion nuclear warheads in secret, they just didn't disclose it for security reason."

2. "I think nuclear war could be won." Then attach a scanned book pdf from 1980s explaining why nuclear war is winnable.

3. "We can obliterate the entire planet 10 times over just like Hollywood movies."

4. "Each DF-41 is capable of launching 10 warheads in a range of 15,000 km, I get my data from CSIS factsheet."

 

[ougoah]

Just as I said before being called "Unironically dumbest post so far.“ in the Taiwan crisis thread, I wasn't pointing out the threats are all bluffing just for the sake of not disappointing the overreacting dudes too much.

No one takes you seriously when you are not nuclear prepared for the showdown. All the bluffing you made is nothing but "you won't do shit".

Can anyone discuss nuclear strategy for China logically without typical:

1. "Actually China has zillion nuclear warheads in secret, they just didn't disclose it for security reason."

2. "I think nuclear war could be won." Then attach a scanned book pdf from 1980s explaining why nuclear war is winnable.

3. "We can obliterate the entire planet 10 times over just like Hollywood movies."

4. "Each DF-41 is capable of launching 10 warheads in a range of 15,000 km, I get my data from CSIS factsheet."

Nuclear strategy for China is unclear.

It's reasonable to speculate on numbers. There's no evidence to even remotely suggest that even with a zillion nuclear warheads, a nation would be happy to pull the trigger.

Taiwan situation has little to do with nukes. China certainly does not want to use nukes. That's a suicidal move. Threatening to use nukes in retaliation is suicidal, even for the US. China no doubt has more than enough nukes and missiles to deliver mutually assured destruction with the US.

How you are connecting Taiwan and nuclear strategy is strange. It makes little sense.

Members were discussing nuclear related conversations because of escalation dynamics if it became a war involving the US.

China could have 100,000 nukes and choose not to go to war even if Taiwan declares independence. But has Taiwan declared independence? I suppose we can wait and see if they do and if so, how the PRC decides to respond.

Now what's your personal take on nuclear weapons? Seeing as you sound keen to talk about it.

 

[Kalec]

How you are connecting Taiwan and nuclear strategy is strange. It makes little sense.

Members were discussing nuclear related conversations because of escalation dynamics if it became a war involving the US.

To be clear, I am not suggesting a nuclear strike against and quite the reverse I was suggesting that nuclear could not be won and won't be used from the beginning.

I think the current "showdown" is very related to the strategic nuclear weapon right now.

Dudes are simulating hundreds of scenarios about US - China fighting in westpac in their head, but unfortunately It will never actually happen. Just as the Ukraine war, US will never directly intervene as long as nuclear weapons concerned.

However, the nuclear weapon demonstrates a resolve, about whether one is willing to launch a military operation at their cost.

Nuclear war doesn't exist but nuclear coercion did exist. Mark my word, China will never go all-out in Taiwan before achieving MAD with US, a.k.a free from US military coercion.

China could have 100,000 nukes and choose not to go to war even if Taiwan declares independence. But has Taiwan declared independence? I suppose we can wait and see if they do and if so, how the PRC decides to respond.

Ukraine is a relatively small country with no nuclear weapon compared to Russia, but it never cedes Donbas from their sovereignty. Whether one supports Ukraine or not, the answer is so clear that no country will ever tolerate a formal independence of their territory.