China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Temstar]

What was the trigger ? interesting that it was during Obama adm

The trigger was the South China Sea Arbitration, the ruling came out on 12th of July 2016.

 

[Temstar]

I saw someone's analysis of this 37km track. The idea is that what this track is simulating is an entire attack sequence against a carrier by a AShBM, from launch to impact. The straight part of the track reflects a carrier undergoing aircraft launching operation at 30 knots, the s-bend reflects the carrier having detected the incoming AShBM halting aircraft operation and performing evasive actions.

Suppose the simulated carrier is suppose to be travelling at 30 knots (56km/h) the whole way, a 37km track would give 40 minutes of simulation, let's be on the safe side and say it takes a while for the carrier target to reach 56km/h and for safety the attack sequence won't begin until the target is several kilometre away from the base, say the entire attack sequence is suppose to take 30 minutes.

Let's say an AShBM can cover on average throughout it's flight 5km/s (ICBMs re-enter at 6-8km/s), a 30 minute attack sequence would mean a 9,000km range (a bit over the range of DF-31). This firmly puts this AShBM into ICBM (over 5,500km range) category - an Intercontinental Anti-ship Ballistic Missile. If I were a betting man I would say now would be a good time to see if DF-31 has gained any new variants.

Notice also the two Arleigh Burke targets are around the S-bend and the whole complex is also the same place where Chinese ABM tests are carried out. If you place some land based ABM at the destroyer targets they would do a decent simulation of a CSG sending out interceptors against this AShBM. Putting China's own ABM at the destroyer targets would also allow you to test future PLAN destroyer based ABM systems against foreign AShBM.

 

[AndrewS]

I'm surprised they used rails. I would recommend having the carrier made of light balsa wood or something (but not so light that it would act like a kite when there's wind) and strap it onto 4 old trucks underneath at the edges. Some robotic programming would be needed to make them turn in unison with a single controller but what do I know?

This simulated carrier is 300m+ long and has to travel at 60km/h+

Rail tracks are the only practical way of moving it

 

[Raymond]

View attachment 78894

I saw someone's analysis of this 37km track. The idea is that what this track is simulating is an entire attack sequence against a carrier by a AShBM, from launch to impact. The straight part of the track reflects a carrier undergoing aircraft launching operation at 30 knots, the s-bend reflects the carrier having detected the incoming AShBM halting aircraft operation and performing evasive actions.

Suppose the simulated carrier is suppose to be travelling at 30 knots (56km/h) the whole way, a 37km track would give 40 minutes of simulation, let's be on the safe side and say it takes a while for the carrier target to reach 56km/h and for safety the attack sequence won't begin until the target is several kilometre away from the base, say the entire attack sequence is suppose to take 30 minutes.

Let's say an AShBM can cover on average throughout it's flight 5km/s (ICBMs re-enter at 6-8km/s), a 30 minute attack sequence would mean a 9,000km range (a bit over the range of DF-31). This firmly puts this AShBM into ICBM (over 5,500km range) category - an Intercontinental Anti-ship Ballistic Missile. If I were a betting man I would say now would be a good time to see if DF-31 has gained any new variants.

Notice also the two Arleigh Burke targets are around the S-bend and the whole complex is also the same place where Chinese ABM tests are carried out. If you place some land based ABM at the destroyer targets they would do a decent simulation of a CSG sending out interceptors against this AShBM. Putting China's own ABM at the destroyer targets would also allow you to test future PLAN destroyer based ABM systems against foreign AShBM.

It sounds like self-training happened on AlphaGo

 

[Raymond]

lol, The comment section is fun as always.

sadly, that's basically the west public's cognitive level. Hope the governments can be smarter to avoid triggering nuclear war.

 

[enroger]

isn't it a very costly endevour to built a base and all the logistics for ASBM testing, plus replacing the carriern model when hit?

I imagine the majority of the tests would just involve target acquisition, against full range of countermeasure (ECM, chaff, flares, smoke....etc). To keep it cheap they may steer the warhead away in most tests and still get most relevant data, I suppose they will do a few tests that actually destroy the target but those would be far and few between due to the cost.

 

[Raymond]

isn't it a very costly endevour to built a base and all the logistics for ASBM testing, plus replacing the carriern model when hit?

I guess it won't be cheap. I remember China has tested ASBM on retired ships. I think this one will be definitely much cheaper than real ships. Besides, retired ships cannot move as fast as real carriers, but this one can.

 

[Overbom]

isn't it a very costly endevour to built a base and all the logistics for ASBM testing, plus replacing the carriern model when hit?

Its not necessary for the carrier model to be hit in order to get data.

There are ways where some seconds before a guaranteed impact, the missile will change course to avoid hitting the target

In such a case, the test results will show that the missile basically hit the target. No reason to destroy a mockup carrier every time a missile is fired

If they want to they can actually do dozens and hundreds of missile tests, without the mockup suffering a single impact.

 

[enroger]

I guess it won't be cheap. I remember China has tested ASBM on retired ships. I think this one will be definitely much cheaper than real ships. Besides, retired ships cannot move as fast as real carriers, but this one can.

I think the ability of ASBM to hit moving targets is well demonstrated already, adding a few knots won't make much of difference to those MaRV.

What is relatively unknown is how those ASBMs will fare against the ECM prowess of a CBG (and other countermeasure). I think that is what those testing systems is about.

 

[ansy1968]

The trigger was the South China Sea Arbitration, the ruling came out on 12th of July 2016.

@Temstar bro may I add to that, and I wish to highlight Duterte decision in calming the situation and take charge of the crisis instead of the American. That date is our Independence day and the 12th day of Duterte Presidency, so you can see the pressure mounting on him to follow his predecessor foreign policy and how the international powers operate (they set the optics , narratives and the symbolism). But Duterte stuck to his ideas and open a channel for communication to the Chinese instead of proclaiming victory and asking for international assistance to reclaim the island either thru military and economic means. THAT IS THE PLAN of pivot of Asia, to demonized China, the hallmark of Obama which is why both the Chinese and the Russian hated him so much. Which Duterte on his part elevated it and won praises and admiration from both Putin and XI by calling his highness Obama a SOB....lol