China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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styx

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escobar said:
Another one
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451139132651102208
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in other words china is building up nuclear forces because it prepares to kill massive number of US soldiers in conventional war. In some articles american "experts" argues that due the massive human losses that it will cause, the response to a carrier sinking by asbm should be a nuclear attack to china metropolitan territory. Time to think twice says china
 
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escobar

escobar

Brigadier
Broccoli said:
I'm more interested if this means we'll see new DF-5 variants or completely new liquid-fueled ICBM? Looking at Russian HGV deployments their liquid-fueled UR-100N can haul only one Avargard HGV.

I'd assume HGV + FOBS payload would require also something with more powerful than DF-41.
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I don't think CN will deploy a HGV FOBS. They tested this intercontinental range HGV in FOBS condition because testing in a normal ICBM scenario would require launch and impact sites >10000km apart, which PRC does not possess. They used a fractional orbit so they could test the HGV at full range with large lateral maneuver and recuperate it.

PLA want to have a means of threatening the CONUS w/conv weapon but how to get the accuracy needed for conventional weapons at orbital reentry speeds? Maybe a benefit of it being an HGV is it slows enough it can start to see where it's going?
 
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OppositeDay

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Overbom said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451155790950240257

This seems like a logical reading of the FOBS development. Taiwan reunification, it is finally coming
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Wrong reading. Kristensen makes it looks like China is doing the nuclear coercion to stop US from conventionally intervene in a Taiwan scenario whereas the other two claim China wants to stop US from employing nuclear coercion. Big difference.

In any case, I think Tong Zhao was the first to article this theory in the present discussion, but of course the view can only go mainstream after white people begin to talk about it.
 
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weig2000

Captain
Overbom said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451155790950240257

This seems like a logical reading of the FOBS development. Taiwan reunification, it is finally coming
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"A mainstream hypothesis about China’s nuclear build-up appears to be forming, one that US intel has been entertaining for some time: to provide cover for conventional scenarios. Basically; we can attack Taiwan and there’s nothing you can do about it unless you go all the way."

Basically, you can't continue to provoke China or cross China's red lines on Taiwan without risking a conventional war with China simply because you believe you have the escalation dominance backed by your superior nuclear weapon arsenal.
 
ChongqingHotPot92

ChongqingHotPot92

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styx said:
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How many tests have they failed? I think they will never catch up with china
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Well you can argue that the most recent Chinese inter-continental FOBS hypersonic glider test is a failure as well for missing the target by 30-40 km. Even 4.4 megaton warhead (DF-5A warhead's yield) could do little (besides blinding a few people and setting some fabrics on fire) to a target 30-40 km away from the epicenter.
 
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