Most likely. It wouldn't be an AShBM test in such a crowded waterway, and the three landing zones indicate a three stage missile which the DF-21D and DF-26 aren't.
Where did you find this NOTAM, by the way? Henri didn't tweet it.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Where did you find this NOTAM, by the way? Henri didn't tweet it.
escobar
Brigadier
This could explain why USAF Cobra ball (Airborne intelligence platform (RC-135) which carries infrared telescopes for tracking ballistic-missile tests at long range) was over the Yellow Sea...
escobar
Brigadier
escobar
Brigadier
The US missile defence is much weaker from the south, virtually no early warning and tracking capability and build them would cost trillions and would cause dollar become worthless !!
In the north they have their canada colony !!
The US inherited most of their missile warning and tracking infrastructure from the cold war !!
Is this an SSBN/ICBM test? Looks insane!
Not ICBM/SLBM. That contrail probably belongs to propelled HGV. Could be the coinciding with recent news of a Chinese hypersonic aircraft project being able to land the craft. So that would have been about a reusable vehicle.
Ballistic missile flight doesn't look like that. The booster rocket doesn't produce that kind of contrail pattern (zooming horizontally covering that sort of distance). Also unlikely to be a glide vehicle due to contrails produced but could potentially be a boost phase being captured but the colour and pattern of the contrail also doesn't seem like booster rocket. More likely some scramjet or more exotic form like sodramjet breakthroughs that have been disclosed years ago.
bajingan
Senior Member
Interesting article by peter huessy Director of Strategic Deterrent Studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, im not sure how credible this guy is
He claimed that China could potentially built near 2600 warheads, of which 99% could be on alert at any one time
He also claimed that ICBM silo fields that China is building is not a shell game with lots of silos and just a few missiles, which means all of them will be filled with missiles
Furthermore the long held belief that China doesn't have the fissile materials for massive nuclear build up, might just be wishful thinking/false hope, as most analysts acknowledge there is great uncertainty over past production and current and future production capability for plutonium, weapons grade uranium and tritium stocks, in other words no one in the west knows how many fissile materials China has
There is confusion. In a story he published himself, he reports that 400 new ICBM silos are being built, not 259 silos as he said in this source. Furthermore, he is stating that all DF-41s will have 10 warheads, instead of taking an average capacity to generate a reliable result, he uses the maximum missile capacity metric.
Broccoli
Senior Member
He is basing that claim on scenario that all silos would have DF-41 and each would carry 6-10 warheads but we don't really know how many warheads DF-41can carry and what type. That's why I dont put much weight on articles like that.
It's estimated that China made enough plutonium for 900-1100 warheads before stopping so China could add at least 600 new warheads on it's inventory.
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