China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[taxiya]

Look at the tires.

DF-31AG -

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DF-41 -

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There are said to be 2 types of TELs for the DF-41. Road mobile plus underground tunnel version and an off-road version. DF-26 and DF-31AG TELs are off-road capable. There is a single image of a DF-41 TEL that has the same tires and said to be the fully off-road capable but we never saw that again -

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. EDIT: notice how sturdy looking this mystery TEL is compared to the others.

The tires are obviously different. The 31AG and seen-once-only DF-41 has the off-road tires. The paraded 41 has the road tires. That probably means that they are prepared for all sorts of operation conditions, just like passenger cars in north have winter and summer tires.

But the TELs are the same HTF5980 (A/B) having the same capability (engine power and suspension)

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

And of course, does China have an equivalent of US Ballistic missile tracking satellites /network - SBIRS for example.

Soon.

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Thats much more effective to have many DF-41 with 1-3 nukes + many decoys ..... than just few DF-41 with 10 nukes

That's just not cricket. Not to be too blunt about it, but the DF-41 has only one mission: annihilate cities. It needs a lot of warheads to accomplish that. Even if all 1-3 warheads in your proposed configuration make it through, the carnage they would inflict is unacceptably small.

The 31AG and seen-once-only DF-41 has the off-road tires.

This one seems to have the rounder "off-road" tires

Hard to tell because the wheels are spinning and the potato quality of the video, but I think that's the case. I don't see why those other tires aren't off-road as well. The Dongfeng Mengshi has similar tires, and it's certainly an off-road vehicle.

But the TELs are the same HTF5980 (A/B) having the same capability (engine power and suspension)

So you know anything about the engines? I've been trying to dig something up but all I can find is "intercooled diesel" (yeah, that really narrows it down). I would hope that the A's engine is stronger than the B's since it has to lug around a much and heavier and draggier load.

 

[Biscuits]

Even DF-41 could carry 10 nukes, I' highly doubt that the case. Most likely 1-3 and the rest are just highly sophisticated decoys

Thats much more effective to have many DF-41 with 1-3 nukes + many decoys ..... than just few DF-41 with 10 nukes

you wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, would you?

Decoy technology is simple and already very advanced and is almost impossible the enemy is able to differentiate them with the real nuke

If it is impossible to differentiate them, why not just put the real thing?

For strategic MAD weapons like the DF-41, they would have very few decoys, unless a decoy is significantly better at distracting than a normal warhead (I.e. it deploys ECM to protect other warheads or smt) to the point where it makes up for “wasting” a slot.

On conventional precision strike you want decoys, since they can increase the chance of a hit regardless of missile defense.

But on a last ditch weapon, you just want as many warheads as possible to act as a deterrent, since you hope you aren’t going to use it, ever.

 

[Biscuits]

Soon.

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Is a weird article. Not gonna throw accusations without proof, but to me it looks like my first encounter with the much hyped “Russian disinformation”.

China has a ton of antiballistic early warning radar, some of them among the first ones ever fielded.

There are even a few overlooking Siberia.

China also has a bunch of early warning satellites, together, it adds up to a massive system, and it wouldn’t be easy to add anything to it.

What then would be the point of “leaking” such an article?

It could be an open signal to the west that Russia’s nuclear defense is now also tied to China’s, meaning that neither side can be strategically isolated.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

If it is impossible to differentiate them, why not just put the real thing?

The idea is that you can put a lot of decoys (literally balloons) in place of one warhead, so the enemy radar would see hundreds or thousands of potential targets.

 

[Hyperwarp]

***

That's just not cricket. Not to be too blunt about it, but the DF-41 has only one mission: annihilate cities. It needs a lot of warheads to accomplish that. Even if all 1-3 warheads in your proposed configuration make it through, the carnage they would inflict is unacceptably small.

***

Do then need 10x warheads on an ICBM for that? 2 to 3 warheads with good pen-aids should do the job. Remember China has megaton-range city-busters. DF-31/31A/31AG can cary only 1x 1MT nuke. You need a heavy ICBM like the DF-5 and DF-41 to deliver multiple 1MT nukes.

 

[enroger]

If it is impossible to differentiate them, why not just put the real thing?

For strategic MAD weapons like the DF-41, they would have very few decoys, unless a decoy is significantly better at distracting than a normal warhead (I.e. it deploys ECM to protect other warheads or smt) to the point where it makes up for “wasting” a slot.

On conventional precision strike you want decoys, since they can increase the chance of a hit regardless of missile defense.

But on a last ditch weapon, you just want as many warheads as possible to act as a deterrent, since you hope you aren’t going to use it, ever.

Yeah, the number of warheads is not as restrictive as number of launch vehicle, if DF-41 has the throw capacity for 10 warheads then it would be loaded with exactly 10 warheads. Decoys only worth their while only when they are much much lighter.

On a different note, does anyone doubt US's claim of being able to tell the difference between balloon decoy and warhead? I find it extremely dubious, how in theory do you differentiate something with the same shape, same IR emission from say 10 to 100km away? Of course the fake ones will decelerate a lot faster in upper atmosphere but that is in terminal game already.

 

[enroger]

Is a weird article. Not gonna throw accusations without proof, but to me it looks like my first encounter with the much hyped “Russian disinformation”.

China has a ton of antiballistic early warning radar, some of them among the first ones ever fielded.

There are even a few overlooking Siberia.

China also has a bunch of early warning satellites, together, it adds up to a massive system, and it wouldn’t be easy to add anything to it.

What then would be the point of “leaking” such an article?

It could be an open signal to the west that Russia’s nuclear defense is now also tied to China’s, meaning that neither side can be strategically isolated.

Well, with Russia's geography if they share data with China then China can get extra-early early warning.
edit words

 

[Biscuits]

Well, with Russia's geography if they share data with China then China can get extra-early early warning.
edit words

Oh that’s definitely true. Maybe that’s how the article should be interpreted.

 

[ougoah]

Russian official and chauvinist narrative is often too similar to the western line where China cannot do anything on its own. Everything China has is thanks to the charity of the west. All things were either given or stolen... never learned or earned and bought. J-20 = Mig 1.44, China early warning radars = Russian, Chinese HGV = bought from Russia or donated or stolen somehow like the Russians presented their HGV (if they have any fielded ones at all) for Chinese "engineers" to study and copy.

They are happy to parrot this line because they like to belittle others to lift themselves higher and feel superior to the rest. It's a pathetic human trait not unique to any race or nationality. Intelligence and thoughtfulness are the medicine to cure this sort of willing ignorance but they are rare qualities.

To suggest China in 2019 needs Russian help to develop and build early warning radar is being willfully simple minded. Perhaps it threatens their delusions of superiority. Reasons like this are partly why I would love to see the rest of the world get developed, rich, and stand as technology equals to the west who have been no better (usually worse) for most of known history. The only recent explosion in "western technology" in the last three centuries has been due to trade, colonialism which actually stole most of the world's land, resources, and talents. Not to mention the theories about how the plague helped accelerate their whole development along with secularism. Then let's not forget the MANY foreign (darker skinned) contributors to their whole empire of technological ability they like to claim for themselves. Most of silicon valley of today is thanks to Indian and east Asian born and raised talents. Look at the founders of most high tech companies in the US. Those white nationalists today are better at chest thumping then actually working like some of their like minded ancestral patriarchs.

Even if it is India who seem to be at odds with China's whole "progress model". It's important we prove to the world that those white nationalists do not have any monopoly on human intelligence.