China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

From Oedo blog
Reviewer training base in Yangfang, Beijing. DF-41 × 18 + DF-31AG × 18 is visible
Now if DF-41 is mirved with 5 warhead each we have 90 warheads + 18 single warheads DF-31AG=108 warhead right there. It completely rebut the MSM estimate of 100 warhead
Now this is only 1 base So how many base does china has?

 

[mys_721tx]

From Oedo blog
Reviewer training base in Yangfang, Beijing. DF-41 × 18 + DF-31AG × 18 is visible
Now if DF-41 is mirved with 5 warhead each we have 90 warheads + 18 single warheads DF-31AG=108 warhead right there. It completely rebut the MSM estimate of 100 warhead
Now this is only 1 base So how many base does china has?

Seems to corroborate with Rick Fisher's 2014 claim that

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. But there is way too few warheads in the stockpile (~260 estimated in 2015).

 

[SpicySichuan]

From Oedo blog
Reviewer training base in Yangfang, Beijing. DF-41 × 18 + DF-31AG × 18 is visible
Now if DF-41 is mirved with 5 warhead each we have 90 warheads + 18 single warheads DF-31AG=108 warhead right there. It completely rebut the MSM estimate of 100 warhead
Now this is only 1 base So how many base does china has?

One cannot rule out the possibility that the PLARF has pulled out the vast majority of DF-41s and DF-31AGs from their strategic deployment just for this parade. They still have DF-5 series and the older DF-31s on deployment while the DF-41s and DF-31AGs celebrate the national holiday in Beijing. Putting up a good show with zero mistakes is directly relevant to the legitimacy of the CCP. In China, the image is sometimes more important than actual reality. Having both Chinese citizens and outsiders BELIEVE that the PLARF is an almighty force (along with the CCP being perceived as undefeatable) is much more important than whether or not the PLARF is almighty. Also, the PLARF has a very limited arsenal of warheads (260-280). There seem to be more rockets available than warheads. Additionally, I don't know if China still produces or has enough weapons-grade plutonium and tritium gas to produce more than 500 large-yield (>100 kilotons) warheads. Jeffrey Lewis said back in 2013 that China does not. Lastly, as Dr. Lewis mentioned in one of his older books (The Minimum Means of Reprisal), the CCP emphasizes the CMC's absolute CONTROL of every single nuclear warhead, so more warheads mean increasing difficulty in management. The last thing Beijing wants is to have a single rocket with warheads attached falling into the hand of a rogue general losing in factional struggles over promotions, political influence, or economic interests.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

One cannot rule out the possibility that the PLARF has pulled out the vast majority of DF-41s and DF-31AGs from their strategic deployment just for this parade. They still have DF-5 series and the older DF-31s on deployment while the DF-41s and DF-31AGs celebrate the national holiday in Beijing. Putting up a good show with zero mistakes is directly relevant to the legitimacy of the CCP. In China, the image is sometimes more important than actual reality. Having both Chinese citizens and outsiders BELIEVE that the PLARF is an almighty force (along with the CCP being perceived as undefeatable) is much more important than whether or not the PLARF is almighty. Also, the PLARF has a very limited arsenal of warheads (260-280). There seem to be more rockets available than warheads. Additionally, I don't know if China still produces or has enough weapons-grade plutonium and tritium gas to produce more than 500 large-yield (>100 kilotons) warheads. Jeffrey Lewis said back in 2013 that China does not. Lastly, as Dr. Lewis mentioned in one of his older books (The Minimum Means of Reprisal), the CCP emphasizes the CMC's absolute CONTROL of every single nuclear warhead, so more warheads mean increasing difficulty in management. The last thing Beijing wants is to have a single rocket with warheads attached falling into the hand of a rogue general losing in factional struggles over promotions, political influence, or economic interests.

Never believe Jeffrey Lewis he has agenda of nuclear disarmament So he talk down China nuclear arsenal. It does not make sense why they spend 40 years building underground great wall. Still going to strong until today when they don't have nuclear warhead . It is very expensive to built underground tunnel in the mountainous area of central China . The only purpose of those tunnel is to hide China nuclear arsenal

Another thing there is no financial or technical constraint on china part to built nuclear arsenal. China make blinding speed on the conventional arm but some how for inexplicable reason decide to retard their nuclear arsenal For what?
China has one of the biggest nuclear mine in the world Even using conservative estimate the plutonium stock U 238 for nuclear fuze should be around 2000 warhead I have that report if you go back on this thread several pages

Chinese military is under control of the party by their structure They have political commissar at every level of military command.

So Jeffrey lewis and his ilk are not telling the truth or they are in denial or purposely mislead for their agenda You can always construct all kind of conspiracies theory to justify their low balling of China nuclear arsenal But none of them make sense
I mean remember this is CCP who rest their legitimacy on defending China territorial integrity and swore that Chinese nation will never be again humiliated!

 

[manqiangrexue]

One cannot rule out the possibility that the PLARF has pulled out the vast majority of DF-41s and DF-31AGs from their strategic deployment just for this parade. They still have DF-5 series and the older DF-31s on deployment while the DF-41s and DF-31AGs celebrate the national holiday in Beijing.

You technically can't rule that out in the same sense that you can't rule out that aliens visited the earth and left last night. To put all your best nuclear assets in one small space for a parade is a strategic blunder that can end your country if you have a rival that is desperate enough and willing to take the risk. This is very very very unlikely. It is actually more likely to use decoys rather than real nukes for parades.

Putting up a good show with zero mistakes is directly relevant to the legitimacy of the CCP.

The legitimacy of the CCP is not in question and no part of that lies on how well this parade or any performance goes. The CCP continuously reaffirms its legitimacy every day by the economic, technological and military achievements of the country.

In China, the image is sometimes more important than actual reality. Having both Chinese citizens and outsiders BELIEVE that the PLARF is an almighty force (along with the CCP being perceived as undefeatable) is much more important than whether or not the PLARF is almighty.

This is empty and meaningless. It can be said but not proven for every nuclear force in existence because nuclear weapons in principle are made to intimidate, not to be used.

Also, the PLARF has a very limited arsenal of warheads (260-280). There seem to be more rockets available than warheads. Additionally, I don't know if China still produces or has enough weapons-grade plutonium and tritium gas to produce more than 500 large-yield (>100 kilotons) warheads. Jeffrey Lewis said back in 2013 that China does not. Lastly, as Dr. Lewis mentioned in one of his older books (The Minimum Means of Reprisal), the CCP emphasizes the CMC's absolute CONTROL of every single nuclear warhead, so more warheads mean increasing difficulty in management.

The whole point of this is to question that assertion made by a foreigner who is guessing what China has without any solid information. You cannot assume that what he guessed is true and debunk actual evidence with his guesses. That's getting things backwards.

The last thing Beijing wants is to have a single rocket with warheads attached falling into the hand of a rogue general losing in factional struggles over promotions, political influence, or economic interests.

What movie/cartoon is this?

 

[Xizor]

I suspect that China might have very low actual warheads ( in the range of 280 to 400) and have a lot of weapons grade (enriched) or less enriched fuel to ensure that a fast acceleration of warhead production can be realized if things go south ( US junking START treaty and weaponizing all 6000 warheads or Japan, Taiwan gains nuclear capability). I really don't see the point why China should invest in 2000 or even a 1000 nukes. It is really wasteful under the current scenario.
This statement isn't unique. Every other observer, expert or newbie, overwhelmingly believe so for decades.
I think i'll go with the study findings of the Federation of American Scientists in their assessment of China's warheads numbering around 300 ( 280 to 400 tops) but will refrain from nodding to their assessment of exact Chinese plutonium stocks < 10 tons. Hard to digest that Japan has a bigger plutonium stock than China ( 90 tons) OR that China will sit idly if Japan had atleast half a kilogram more than it. China's high grade/ low grade fuel numbers are likely to be HUGE.
China must have a capability of extreme acceleration in warhead production and these caves ( they do exist in fact) may be part of the answer to that.

 

[antiterror13]

From Oedo blog
Reviewer training base in Yangfang, Beijing. DF-41 × 18 + DF-31AG × 18 is visible
Now if DF-41 is mirved with 5 warhead each we have 90 warheads + 18 single warheads DF-31AG=108 warhead right there. It completely rebut the MSM estimate of 100 warhead
Now this is only 1 base So how many base does china has?

Great. Any possibility some of them are actually dummy missiles ?

 

[styx]

or dummy mirv

 

[Hendrik_2000]

or dummy mirv

It supposed to be able to carry 10 warheads I figure 5 real and 5 dummy happy?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I find it really puzzling why some people refuse to believe that China doesn't/can't have warheads in the thousands. As if China having a nuclear arsenal commensurate with its stature blasphemes against their religion.