China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Depends what angle you look it from, from a China to Russia perspective the balance of power in Asia would receive a significant lurch when Russia starts to redeploy it's land based cruise missiles and IRBMs. In the past China was the only nation that deploys this kind of weapons. It is pretty much an open secret that Russia resents the INF because it denies it a powerful tool in the balance of power in the area. As a form of asymmetrical warfare, ground base cruise missiles can conduct deep strikes at a very low cost while using Russia's vast geography to elude detection and destruction.
From a China to US perspective, nothing really would have change. Even if the US deploys ground based cruise missiles in the Pacific there is very little place where it can deploy them effectively. Any small island can potentially be overwhelm in a counter missile barrage, whereas islands like Guam or Okinawa while defensible, limits the direction of where the missile can engage.
From about ago.
Digging Into China's 'Tactical' Hypersonic Boost-Glide Vehicle Program
A new document provides the first primary source evidence of a Chinese hypersonic boost-glide vehicle program.
By Raymond Wang
September 05, 2018
In April 2018, a screenshot of a “leaked document” started circulating on Chinese social media – first posted on Tiexue, a Chinese online forum for military affairs, it was on other outlets, while the original post is no longer . It details the achievements of Zhu Xuejun, a chief designer of tactical weapons series at the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, which is the First Research Institute of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. Read an English (PDF).
The document is allegedly a page from a nomination form for the 12th Guang Hua Science and Engineering Prize, a prize awarded by the Chinese Academy of Engineering. As such, it must be written before the nomination of September 2017. It lists four “significant achievements” of the nominee, of which the last one is the development of “China’s first operationalised boost-glide tactical missile weapons system,” which reached “hypersonic speeds of Mach 10, and conducted a full length flight test in 2014.” China conducted three HGV tests in 2014, two of which were successful.
Of course, one should not take the authenticity of this document for granted – Chinese social media is a hotbed of rumours and misinformation. I believe it is authentic for the following reasons.
First, the template matches with that of the official nomination form, which you can still off the website of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. According to the website, the nomination process started in June 2017.
Second, Zhu’s name appears on the official nominee’s of the China Association for Science and Technology, which was made in November 2017. The list is no longer available on the CAST website, but remains accessible on the websites of other academies. While the “leaked” document never mentions Zhu’s name explicitly, it does refer to a “she.” The attribution to Zhu seems plausible, as she is the only female nominee who works in missile development.
Third, Zhu’s nomination form was never actually “leaked” – rather, it was publicly available from November 6-10, 2017, according to the , as part of the nomination procedure. This “public airing period” was meant to offer peers a chance to comment on the nominee’s achievements. Indeed, you can confirm through WayBackMachine, which has a November 10 version of the CAST page , that there were hyperlinks to the completed nomination forms for candidates. These links no longer work, as CAST has removed the files from its website. Regardless, this offers a more plausible explanation as to how this document ended up on Chinese social media.
Finally, we can confirm her work in boost-glide technology through official sources. According to a CCTV , Zhu was nominated for the CCTV Person of Innovation in Science and Technology of 2017. The article affirms that she “created the design and theoretical framework for boost-glide tactical missiles.” While the article never specifies that this was a hypersonic boost-glide program, it confirms that she was involved in boost-glide technology for missile development.
For these reasons, I believe that the page from Zhu’s nomination form is authentic.
The first question is whether the program Zhu worked on was the one that eventually produced the DF-17 – a missile system with a hypersonic glide vehicle that was first tested in November 2017. Obviously, the document does not refer to these tests since it was written two months prior, and as such, we cannot draw any conclusions. That said, the document’s language echoes that of ’s article, which quoted U.S. intelligence sources describing the DF-17 as the first HGV system that is “intended to be fielded operationally.”
What we do know is that there is a HGV program for a “tactical” (战术) missile system — what does this means in the Chinese context? Based on how the PLA classifies its missile systems, it seems that “tactical” refers to the intended missions of a weapon system, rather than its range or payload. A “tactical” missile “important operational or tactical targets”; while a “strategic” missile targets “strategic targets.”
Considering that China official doctrine does not include tactical uses of nuclear weapons, it is tempting to infer that the program Zhu worked on is a HBGV with a conventional payload. This could mean a few thing — Zhu could have worked on the conventional variant of the DF-17, which is . It could also be a completely separate conventional HBGV program.
However, there is another possibility: we do not know who wrote this document, and the author could have been using “tactical” in another sense, such as a reference to the missile’s range. Given that this is only one data point, we simply cannot draw a concrete conclusion about the nature of the missile’s payload.
Ultimately, this document raises more questions than it answers. Having said that, if authentic – which I believe it is – this is the first semi-official confirmation of the existence of a hypersonic boost-glide missile system in China. Thus far, its coverage in Chinese media only draws on Western reports.
Raymond Wang holds an MA from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. The author would like to thank James Acton and Zhao Tong for their comments.
Broccoli
Senior Member
Original DF-31 didn't have payload shroud only a huge RV (US estimation 470-500kg in weight) on top the missile while DF-31A has a shroud what suggests that payload inside is much lighter... perhaps 1x90kt warhead + penaids.To me it seems that DF-31A is only an place holder before they get DF-41 in service, something they can use for deterrence before better missiles are ready.
Indian Agni V is probably best comparison vs DF-31.
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Nuclear armed Tomahawk missiles could be launched from any ship with an Mk-41 VLS system or even a submarine. But if all they wanted was to use naval Tomahawks they would not need to break the INF Treaty. It does make sense to me in the following perspective: in the past when the Saudis needed ballistic missiles the CIA arranged for them to buy Chinese missiles because the USA had no IRBM to sell them. The USA might be interested in arming the Saudis and other nations with IRBMs to counter other nations with major IRBM composition in their arsenal i.e. Iran, North Korea, perhaps also Pakistan, India, and China. Imagine that in addition to selling these to the Saudis they started selling or lending them to the Japanese, South Koreans, Taiwanese, Ukraine, or Vietnam.
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There is nothing in the INF that forbids the signatories from selling cruise missile technologies to other states, only that they cannot use certain missiles. That one that does is the MTCR, and both Russia and the US have not pull out of that treaty yet. At least know which kind of international treaty you are referring to here. Moreover that the idea that the US would sell cruise missile tech to China's neighbors is a rather irrelevant factor, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all have cruise missiles in one form or another.
The US has IRBM in the past like the Pershing, so it is not like they are completely lacking in that department.
The Pershing has gone out of use a long time ago. You would need to develop a new missile if the USA wanted an IRBM right now. They certainly have the technological base for it. Just look at the solid rocket booster engines used in the Atlas V space launcher for example. Still it would take years to develop a new rocket. But the Trident II is still available and that could be used on ground platforms if they wanted a portable ballistic missile quick.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Now what is this monster
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