China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

I would not say that the US's hypersonic researches have ended in failure, but more likely the US have other priorities to pursue first. Policies too plays and important part as it takes significant political willpower to support such long term projects.
As for Russia it is always the same old problem, not enough rubles.

No they did test it with much higher velocity but they end in failure With success rate of only 20 % It is not for lack of trying but sofar they have not come up with an answer. NO further test is planned unless they resurrect Lazarus
They tested 4 times only 1 succeed. Two of them were tested back in 60's . China tested 8 or 9 except one all of them are successful though at lower speed but still hyper sonic
There is no if and but here

 

[antiterror13]

I would not say that the US's hypersonic researches have ended in failure, but more likely the US have other priorities to pursue first. Policies too plays and important part as it takes significant political willpower to support such long term projects.
As for Russia it is always the same old problem, not enough rubles.

Is it your opinion or based on your research? .... do you know the stuff?

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Is it your opinion or based on your research? .... do you know the stuff?

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If we see here the first credible hypersonic test done by the US was conducted in 2011. But after that, there was no more major news. Why is that so, as far as the test results were concern, they were off to a good start. Not to mention the HTV-2 test in 2010.
Then there was the year of sequestration during 2012-2016, military projects come under much more scrutiny from Congress. And I would need not exaggerated by stating that projects like the F-35 and Ford has turned more than a few eye brows on how they were procured and costed considerably more than what was predicted. And part of the reason why they were shoehorned through in the end was due to immense pork barreling by the manufactures and "too big to fail" scenarios.
Such environments are not particularly helpful, especially for budding research like hypersonic vehicles.
There is also the geopolitical issue to consider, current US policies put preference on huge physical presence and air superiority, that means super carrier strike groups rather than hypersonic missile armed destroyers and such. A look at a Congressional mandate requiring that the US maintains no less then 10 operational carriers at anytime will tell you that much.
And for Russia ? It's just as simple a matter of looking up its current GDP per capita, a country that saw its GDP per capita dropping from 15,000 USD to 9000 USD is hardly suited for the business of introducing new military tech.
One can easily put together a general idea of the situation from multiple sources.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

China is expected to conduct a new "precision" ballistic test this Saturday, December 30, from the Taiyuan Space Center (TSLC). The impact zone is particularly small in comparison. The range is estimated at about 2,000 km.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The US has been tryng hard to develop hypersonic missile Maybe the success of Chinese test will spur them to get back into the game. It is incorrect to say that the funding was neglected or witheld They did spend vast sum of money on the research. But sofar success has eluded them. Here is our friend David Axe article

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The Air Force's Next Wonder Weapon: Missiles Faster Than Mach 5

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December 25, 2017
For its part, the Pentagon has pursued several parallel development paths for hypersonic weaponry. The Defense Department spent $108 million on hypersonics research and development in 2016 and $378 million in 2016. The department’s 2018 budget request includes $292 million for hypersonics research. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Air Force and Army have all tested “boost-glide” vehicles that launch atop rocket boosters then glide, unpowered, at hypersonic speeds. Most of the test flights have ended in failure.

Spurred by developments in Russia and China, the U.S. Air Force is taking steps toward acquiring a hypersonic surface-to-air missile capable of traveling faster than Mach 5.

For more than 20 years the Air Force — not to mention other U.S. government agencies and private industry — have been experimenting with hypersonic technology. But as of mid-2017 that experimentation hasn’t translated into a working weapon.

That might change soon. On June 29, 2017, Air Force Material Command published a “sources sought” notice asking interested contractors to describe their design and manufacturing capabilities related to hypersonic munitions.

(This first appeared in June.)

“Qualified vendors must be skilled in design, qualification, component/subsystem testing of the critical elements of the hypersonic missile in representative operational conditions,” the notice

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.

Vendors must be capable in fields of hypersonic aerodynamics, aero-thermal protection systems, solid rocket motors, warhead-and-missile integration, advanced hypersonic guidance, navigation and control and aircraft integration, according to the Air Force.

A hypersonic munition speeding along at least five times the speed of sound offers huge advantages over existing — and much slower — weapons. High speed makes a hypersonic missile difficult to intercept or dodge. The kinetic energy of a Mach-5 munition lends it tremendous destructive power.

For its part, the Pentagon has pursued several parallel development paths for hypersonic weaponry. The Defense Department

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$108 million on hypersonics research and development in 2016 and $378 million in 2016. The department’s 2018 budget request includes $292 million for hypersonics research.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Air Force and Army have all tested “boost-glide” vehicles that launch atop rocket boosters then glide, unpowered, at hypersonic speeds. Most of the test flights have ended in failure.

DARPA, NASA and the Air Force have also trialed powered hypersonic weapons, most notably the Boeing-made X-51 Waverider, a two-ton, 25-foot-long, two-stage vehicle with a detachable rocket booster and its own, built-in scramjet engine. The booster accelerates the vehicle to Mach 4.5, at which point the air-breathing scramjet takes over and nudges the top speed past Mach 5.

X-51s have flown four times since 2010. In the latest and most successful test, in May 2013, a B-52 — pictured at top — launched an X-51 over the Pacific Ocean. The vehicle flew for six minutes at a top speed of Mach 5.1.

China and Russia both claim to be working on hypersonic weapons, lending urgency to America’s own, similar efforts. China’s WU-14 hypersonic boost-glide system

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seven times between 2014 and 2016. Russia

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its Yu-71 hypersonic glider in 2015.

As a sort of follow-on to the X-51 effort, the Air Force, NASA and an Australian government test agency plan to experiment with a more controllable hypersonic vehicle that the testers hope will also be cheaper — no more than $10 million per vehicle — and more reliable.

Flight tests of that co-called “HiFIRE” vehicle could begin in Australia as early as July 2017, and could support the Air Force’s current effort to acquire a hypersonic munition for routine use.

Air Force Material Command is evidently impatient to complete its market research and start cutting contracts. “This new weapon system must be designed and analyzed for rapid development and fielding,” the June notice stresses. Responses are due on July 14, 2017.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

The US has been tryng hard to develop hypersonic missile Maybe the success of Chinese test will spur them to get back into the game. It is incorrect to say that the funding was neglected or witheld They did spend vast sum of money on the research. But sofar success has eluded them. Here is our friend David Axe article

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The Air Force's Next Wonder Weapon: Missiles Faster Than Mach 5

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December 25, 2017
For its part, the Pentagon has pursued several parallel development paths for hypersonic weaponry. The Defense Department spent $108 million on hypersonics research and development in 2016 and $378 million in 2016. The department’s 2018 budget request includes $292 million for hypersonics research. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Air Force and Army have all tested “boost-glide” vehicles that launch atop rocket boosters then glide, unpowered, at hypersonic speeds. Most of the test flights have ended in failure.

Spurred by developments in Russia and China, the U.S. Air Force is taking steps toward acquiring a hypersonic surface-to-air missile capable of traveling faster than Mach 5.

For more than 20 years the Air Force — not to mention other U.S. government agencies and private industry — have been experimenting with hypersonic technology. But as of mid-2017 that experimentation hasn’t translated into a working weapon.

That might change soon. On June 29, 2017, Air Force Material Command published a “sources sought” notice asking interested contractors to describe their design and manufacturing capabilities related to hypersonic munitions.

(This first appeared in June.)

“Qualified vendors must be skilled in design, qualification, component/subsystem testing of the critical elements of the hypersonic missile in representative operational conditions,” the notice

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.

Vendors must be capable in fields of hypersonic aerodynamics, aero-thermal protection systems, solid rocket motors, warhead-and-missile integration, advanced hypersonic guidance, navigation and control and aircraft integration, according to the Air Force.

A hypersonic munition speeding along at least five times the speed of sound offers huge advantages over existing — and much slower — weapons. High speed makes a hypersonic missile difficult to intercept or dodge. The kinetic energy of a Mach-5 munition lends it tremendous destructive power.

For its part, the Pentagon has pursued several parallel development paths for hypersonic weaponry. The Defense Department

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$108 million on hypersonics research and development in 2016 and $378 million in 2016. The department’s 2018 budget request includes $292 million for hypersonics research.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Air Force and Army have all tested “boost-glide” vehicles that launch atop rocket boosters then glide, unpowered, at hypersonic speeds. Most of the test flights have ended in failure.

DARPA, NASA and the Air Force have also trialed powered hypersonic weapons, most notably the Boeing-made X-51 Waverider, a two-ton, 25-foot-long, two-stage vehicle with a detachable rocket booster and its own, built-in scramjet engine. The booster accelerates the vehicle to Mach 4.5, at which point the air-breathing scramjet takes over and nudges the top speed past Mach 5.

X-51s have flown four times since 2010. In the latest and most successful test, in May 2013, a B-52 — pictured at top — launched an X-51 over the Pacific Ocean. The vehicle flew for six minutes at a top speed of Mach 5.1.

China and Russia both claim to be working on hypersonic weapons, lending urgency to America’s own, similar efforts. China’s WU-14 hypersonic boost-glide system

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seven times between 2014 and 2016. Russia

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its Yu-71 hypersonic glider in 2015.

As a sort of follow-on to the X-51 effort, the Air Force, NASA and an Australian government test agency plan to experiment with a more controllable hypersonic vehicle that the testers hope will also be cheaper — no more than $10 million per vehicle — and more reliable.

Flight tests of that co-called “HiFIRE” vehicle could begin in Australia as early as July 2017, and could support the Air Force’s current effort to acquire a hypersonic munition for routine use.

Air Force Material Command is evidently impatient to complete its market research and start cutting contracts. “This new weapon system must be designed and analyzed for rapid development and fielding,” the June notice stresses. Responses are due on July 14, 2017.

While I am not trying to be extremely nitpicky here, the report does states that significant increase of funding had only started in 2016-2018, which coincides with the end to the sequestration period.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

No they did test it with much higher velocity but they end in failure With success rate of only 20 % It is not for lack of trying but sofar they have not come up with an answer. NO further test is planned unless they resurrect Lazarus
They tested 4 times only 1 succeed. Two of them were tested back in 60's . China tested 8 or 9 except one all of them are successful though at lower speed but still hyper sonic
There is no if and but here

There was no major news of any testing from 2013 onward for the X-51, the total number of tests conducted was a total of 4. 4 in a period of 4 years, that gives one an idea of what a snail's pace the project was going. The final test was the most successful one of them all, with a total of 6 minutes test flight. Why have the US not capitalize on that success ? It was not like they are stumped with any major issues.

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High-Speed Strike Weapon To Build On X-51 Flight
"In the 6 min. it took the diminutive vehicle to travel at up to Mach 5.1 over 230 nm to its watery grave, the X-51A program smashed every time and distance record for sustained, air-breathing hypersonic flight. The achievement means that nine years after starting the program, and two years after first flight, the X-51A team has finally proved the viability of a free-flying, scramjet-powered, endothermically fueled vehicle."
Previous HGVs like the X-43 also suffered similar fate.
The US has considerable amount of success with HGVs, but DARPA's priorty was then shifted part due to policy and part due to Congress drawing the purse strings tight as so evidenced in this article from Aviation Week:

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Darpa Refocuses Hypersonics Research On Tactical Missions

"The original HTV-1 hypersonic test vehicle was abandoned in 2006 when the sharp-edged carbon-carbon aeroshell proved impossible to manufacture. Darpa and Lockheed proceeded with the easier-to-produce HTV-2, but then departed from the original unpowered HCV concept to propose an HTV-3X testbed, with turbojet/scramjet combined-cycle propulsion. Congress refused to fund the vehicle, dubbed Blackswift, and it was cancelled in 2008, leaving two HTV-2s as the remnants of Falcon."

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Its more a matter of persistence,patience, and willingness to spend. 3 things which are critically in short supply at Congress.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

But that does not mean that research stop completely Most of the private company like Lockheed , Raytheon and of course DARPA continue the program albeit at much slower pace Lockheed reputedly spend 500 million on weapon development program
So to blame the lack of success just on reduced spending is not logical Part of it is because they under estimate the chinese capability to develop hypersonic vehicle. And believe that legacy system like Patriot and THAAD can do the job if further refine so no need to advance further when the basic technology is not available yet. Of course counting the vapor ware Laser and EM rail gun that never materialized

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The United States can still counter foreign advances in so-called hypersonic weapons, but it will require a substantial effort to fund defensive systems. So-called "peer competitors" China and Russia are both developing hypersonic weapons, which fly profiles that make them difficult for traditional air defense weapons to shoot down.


Tom Bussing, vice president of

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's Advanced Missile Systems, told ShowNews that the development of hypersonic weapons by Beijing and Moscow in the last ten years "is a remarkable thing that has occurred, and it has fundamentally changed the nature of warfare." Raytheon has apparently spent $500 million over the last four years in the field of hypersonic research, into both offensive and defensive weapons.

Hypersonic weapons are weapons that move at speeds of Mach 5 or faster. Air-breathing hypersonic weapons use engines to suck in air, which is then used to burn fuel by a ramjet or scramjet engine. Air-breathing hypersonics generally fly the same profile as conventional aircraft or missiles. A successful December 2015 test of a Chinese scramjet vehicle reached Mach 7.

Another, faster hypersonic weapon is the so-called boost glide system. Boost glide weapons are typically placed atop rockets such as the Chinese DF-21 medium range ballistic missile. The missile boosts the weapon to higher altitudes but does not take it all the way to lower earth orbit the way it would a regular warhead. Instead, the boost glide weapon detaches just short of space and glides back down to earth at up to Mach 10.

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and

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boost glide systems are both in the developmental stages and could well result in operational weapons within the next ten to fifteen years.

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U.S. X-51 WaveRider hypersonic flight demonstrator.
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Although the weapons are both very similar, China and Russia are developing them for different reasons. China is developing the weapons to put U.S. and allied military bases in the Asia-Pacific region at risk, shortening the defender's reaction times in a conventional war. Russia on the other hand is developing hypersonic nuclear delivery systems to get around American ballistic missile defenses

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.

According to Bussing, both air-breathing hypersonic weapons and boost glide weapons are very difficult to engage, as both fly depressed trajectories that dispense with the high, arc-like, and most importantly predictable trajectories of traditional ballistic missiles.

Raytheon makes three types of ballistic missile interceptors, the

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midcourse interceptors that intercept incoming warheads at very high altitudes and the

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and

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terminal phase interceptors that destroy warheads as they near their targets. A successful hypersonic defense would likely use both types of interceptors to provide a layered defense system.

Read more at

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[Hendrik_2000]

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Here is excerpt on the improving the legacy system and under estimate the Chinese capability
The U.S. has spent considerably more than $100 billion to perfect hit-to-kill technology and improve connectivity among disparate systems fielded for protection against air-breathing and ballistic missile threats. The Army plans to field at least six Thaad batteries; the system is designed to field an area defense system capable of intercepts both inside the atmosphere and in the low regions of space.

Today, the U.S. has no optimal capability to intercept an advanced hypersonic boost glide vehicle, according to an industry source. Although hypersonic vehicles burn hot and are thus easily visible to the U.S. sensor network, they are maneuverable. There is concern that existing interceptors in the U.S. arsenal lack the divert capabilities required to counter such a threat.

However, a credible threat does not yet exist. The vehicles tested by the Chinese are considered to be basic, but Missile Defense Agency (MDA) Director Vice Adm. James Syring is said to be more concerned about Russia’s hypersonic systems, which are far more maneuverable and advanced. He has already advocated quietly in the Pentagon for funding for a Thaad-ER to address what he sees as a gap in intercept capability should these threats get fielded. So far, his efforts have not paid off.