China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
Except that the last resort you talking about is not even a viable option at this point.
How is it not viable? If PLA's conventional force is strong enough to deter any potential foreign interference over Taiwan, why would China need to use nukes? Unless you are thinking that PLA will never be that strong.

Keep in mind that, over Taiwan, PLA will be the "host team". Meaningful foreign interference will have to come across oceans to reach the theater.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
How is it not viable? If PLA's conventional force is strong enough to deter any potential foreign interference over Taiwan, why would China need to use nukes? Unless you are thinking that PLA will never be that strong.

Keep in mind that, over Taiwan, PLA will be the "host team". Meaningful foreign interference will have to come across oceans to reach the theater.

Well it's not strong to deter foreign interference as of now. A fleet of USN SSN and Japanese subs will keep chinese fleet away from taiwan
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
How is it not viable? If PLA's conventional force is strong enough to deter any potential foreign interference over Taiwan, why would China need to use nukes? Unless you are thinking that PLA will never be that strong.

What makes you think that? Even by very laissez-faire standards, the PLA in 2020 (or 2030) would barely reach parity with what the US Navy has deployed in the Asia-Pacific.

Keep in mind that, over Taiwan, PLA will be the "host team". Meaningful foreign interference will have to come across oceans to reach the theater.

Are you discounting the US carriers, vessels, and USAF aircraft based in Korea & Japan? Or USN SSGNs patrolling the SCS with 100+ Tomahawks onboard?
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
The only scenario I can think of giving others second thoughts to get involved or interference is to have US, Russia nuke capability, capable of preemptive First Strike against anybody

If China wants Taiwan no matter what, that's only way.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
How is it not viable? If PLA's conventional force is strong enough to deter any potential foreign interference over Taiwan, why would China need to use nukes? Unless you are thinking that PLA will never be that strong.

Keep in mind that, over Taiwan, PLA will be the "host team". Meaningful foreign interference will have to come across oceans to reach the theater.


If China still having the mentality of what you have, I suggest them should relax and let Taiwan Go.
Relax, Don't even think about it. Aint going to happen.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
What makes you think that? Even by very laissez-faire standards, the PLA in 2020 (or 2030) would barely reach parity with what the US Navy has deployed in the Asia-Pacific.

2020? No I don't think Taiwan will declare independence in 2020, let alone in 2030. In my opinion, the secessionists have missed their opportunities in the 90s.

Are you discounting the US carriers, vessels, and USAF aircraft based in Korea & Japan? Or USN SSGNs patrolling the SCS with 100+ Tomahawks onboard?

What makes you thinking that it will be the US that's going to interfere over Taiwan? I don't want to get into details about hypothetical war between China and US. Even if it comes, you can bet that PLA has prepared for it.

The most pathetic bit in Taiwan secessionism is that they don't have backbones. They only dare to dream free ride at cost of others.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
No need, they only wants to promulgate this de-facto or unspoken independece for the next 1000 yrs.
You probably need to read the Chinese anti-seccession law. One of the applicable conditions being that if the mainland determines that the other part is dragging feet to resist unification.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Gonna give my take on this. China didn't build 7,000 nukes like the Soviet Union because there's no reason to need to bow up the world 7 times over or some other ridiculous number like that. China's official count is what, 260? And what's the real number? No one knows? I think they should make some 2K, less than 3k and leave it at that. But as it is now, no one wants to go to nuclear war with China unless existentially threatened and that's the nukes getting the job done already.

PLA's conventional forces aren't going to need to match USA+Japan's forces to stop them from intervening in case it needs to invade ROC. This is an assumption that 1. both are willing to fight to the death to defend Taiwan and 2. the geography favors no one, both of which are false assumptions. The geography makes it much easier for China to fight than other countries coming long long ways (China has land-based missiles that can keep carriers away and possibly even destroyer-sized vessels soon) and other countries are going to be far less committed in the fight than China. Even if foreign forces think they can win, they do not want to explain to their citizens how they lost 20,000 sailors/aviators, 50 military vessels trying to defend what turned out to be a smoking rock. The Japanese may, because many there consider China an existential threat, but if the Americans do not go all out, Japan is going to sit on its hands and curse.

So in summary, China's current forces are enough for no one to want to fight to the death for an island that they don't own (in the same sense that no one wants to get stabbed 6 times fighting for a Snickers bar on the ground even if he believes he can ultimately survive and the other guy won't). If not, China would build more nukes, easily (have they?). Currently, they are trying to integrate Taiwan peacefully, but if it doesn't work, even now, I highly highly doubt any country is willing to fight the full power of the Chinese armed forces and possibly eat a few nukes trying to defend an island they don't don't even formally recognize and one that they won't own even if they win.
 
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