China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

Anyone has and idea about HQ 19? Here is the youtube write up. I did post a short version of the test a while ago but it doesn't show the missile itself. NOt sure if the missile shown HQ19 or just stock footage

In a television report about China's development of anti-ballistic missile (ABM) capabilities, Chinese state media revealed for the first time details of a test the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted of what appears to be an HQ-19 anti-missile system.

The release of the video footage by China Central Television on 24 July comes just a few days after Beijing failed to convince Seoul and Washington not to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea. While the exact date and location of the test is unknown, Chinese media outlet People's Daily Online reported the following day that the PLA had tested the HQ-19 system in 2010.

The report contained a vague profile of what may be the HQ-19. It shows over-exposed footage of an ABM system similar to that described on Chinese online forums as the HQ-19.

If credible, this graphic indicates that the HQ-19 is a two- or possibly three-stage ABM. Chinese sources also suggest that development of the HQ-19 began in the early 1990s under the aegis of the 863 Programme and that it may have been tested for the first time in 2003.

The HQ-19 is reported to have a performance comparable with that of the US Army's THAAD system, but there had been no open-source reports indicating that it had been deployed.

The TV footage was part of a report on Chinese missile defence pioneer Brigadier General Chen Deming. The report focused on Chen's role in ABM development in the former General Armaments Department, which is now part of the Strategic Support Force. It mentioned his ABM work early in the past decade, his participation in the 11 January 2007 anti-satellite test, the 11 January 2010 mid-course ABM test, as well as a subsequent 27 January 2013 ABM test.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

As reported by Henri K there were Notam on Nov 30th
I guess they are sending message here to the incoming defense minister

China Flight-Tests 10 DF-21 Missiles
Show of force comes amid transition to Trump

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DF-21 salvo launch


BY:

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December 2, 2016 5:00 pm

China’s military conducted a salvo of 10 missile flight tests late last month in a show of force during the transition to the Donald Trump administration.

Chinese state media reported Thursday that the simultaneous flight tests of 10 DF-21 intermediate-range ballistic missiles were carried out in China.

The missiles “can destroy U.S. Asia-Pacific bases at any time,” the dispatch from the official Xinhua news agency reported.

The flight tests were disclosed by China Central Television on Nov. 28 and coincide with President-elect Donald Trump’s high-profile announcements of new senior government officials.

Disclosure of the missile salvo launch comes as Trump announced on Thursday that he will nominate retired Marine Corps. Gen. James Mattis as his defense secretary. Mattis is one of the Corps’ most celebrated warfighting generals.

Xinhua reported that the DF-21 is comparable to the U.S. Pershing II intermediate-range missile that used a two-stage rocket and aerodynamic reentry vehicle. The Pershing II was dismantled under the U.S.-Russian INF treaty.

Rick Fisher, a China military expert, confirmed the missile tests involved the DF-21C variant of the missile.

Fisher, a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, also noted that the missile test came as China is conducting large-scale naval exercises.

“The PLA is banging some drums to provide background for military psychological warfare,” Fisher said.

The DF-21 is the basis for several types of missiles, including the anti-ship variant known as the DF-21D. Another version is believed to be part of China’s anti-satellite arsenal.

The DF-21C is a land-attack maneuvering missile with a range of about 1,000 miles.

It is also capable of firing a maneuvering warhead.

Analysis of 4 messages Air Airmen (NOTAM) suggests that China would process a new ballistic test, on 30 November, since the launch center Tiayuan (CLEC).

We can see that two of these four NOTAMs indicate the activation of a fallout zone that prohibits overflight at all altitudes, and the closure of several flight segments.

A3071 / 16
Q) ZLHW / QRTCA / IV / BO / W / 000/999 / 3956N09551E033
A) ZLHW B) 1611300257 C) 1611300352
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED bounded BY:
N400947E0951122-N400942E0963000-N394240E0962941-N394249E0951134
BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS: GND-UNL .
F) GND G) UNL

A3072 / 16
Q) ZLHW / QARLC / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 /
A) ZLHW B) 1611300255 C) 1611300340
E) FLW SEGMENTS OF ATS RTE CLSD :
1.G470: DUNHUANG VOR 'DNH' - UPDOP.
2 .W187: TUSLI - DUNHUANG VOR 'DNH'.
3.W112. TUSLI - AKTOB
4.V6: AKTOB- Jiayuguan VOR 'CHW'.

This fallout zone, shown in red in the diagram below, is 50 km wide and 115 km long. It should therefore correspond to the impact area of ballistic missile in question as a normal area of fallout launcher stages - as in the case of the last Chinese space launch to

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- measure only 50 km long and 30 km wide.

Besides the size of the area suggests that the head does not borrow a purely ballistic trajectory. If the "red" region corresponds to the zone of impact, then the range of the missile will be 1 350 km, either that of a missile MRBMs type DF-16 and DF-21 for example.

 

[Blackstone]

As reported by Henri K there were Notam on Nov 30th
I guess they are sending message here to the incoming defense minister

China Flight-Tests 10 DF-21 Missiles
Show of force comes amid transition to Trump

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DF-21 salvo launch

Unnecessary saber rattling that is unhelpful for US-China relations and invites tit for tat.

 

[PikeCowboy]

not everything has to be about the US...

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Unnecessary saber rattling that is unhelpful for US-China relations and invites tit for tat.

Who is provoking whom here. Trump in his gusto to poke at Chinese eyes, broke the diplomatic protocol by talking directly to Tsai Ingwen. Knowing well it is the bedrock of US China relation. And hot button issue with China It is dangerous steps.It will precipitate crisis
You think it is bad today China airforce circling Taiwan with H 8K, J 11

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[LesAdieux]

when Putin threats using nukes, it's threat from weakness; when the US threats using nukes, it's threat from strength.

anyway, China's rather limited nuke arsenal is big concern for its own security. China is poor with uranium, but it has a massive nuclear power program , soon it will be the largest in the world. depleted fuel contains 1% of plutonium, China has 1000 tons of it already, reprocessing it will yield 10 tons of plutonium. 5kg plutonium gives you a decent warhead, that's 2000 warheads.

again it's not the capacity, it's the will.

 

[SinoSoldier]

when Putin threats using nukes, it's threat from weakness; when the US threats using nukes, it's threat from strength.

anyway, China's rather limited nuke arsenal is big concern for its own security. China is poor with uranium, but it has a massive nuclear power program , soon it will be the largest in the world. depleted fuel contains 1% of plutonium, China has 1000 tons of it already, reprocessing it will yield 10 tons of plutonium. 5kg plutonium gives you a decent warhead, that's 2000 warheads.

again it's not the capacity, it's the will.

It is very much the capacity (the will is also important, but that's another tale). More nuclear warheads require more supporting infrastructure (storage areas, which themselves need specialized protective facilities and equipment), additional ballistic missiles, and a dramatic increase in the number of personnel to operate and maintain these weapons.

This runs counter to China's new paradigm of a "leaner", more high-tech force and decreased defense spending. An expansion of nuclear forces would be very hard to sustain with the military's plans to cut the # of personnel serving in the armed forces. I've also a feeling that the PLAN is a limiting factor due to the unreliability and low quantity of SSBNs. Anyways, recent trends suggest that the PLA is more focused on getting warheads through defenses rather than building more warheads in general.

 

[abc123]

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[Hendrik_2000]

Global times journalist are not privy to Chinese nuclear stockpile.They just like everybody read western news. Update on Chinese Anti Satellite test

China Prepares for
Anti-Satellite Missile Test
(Updated) DN-3 missile spotted preparing for launch

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DN-3 test contrails

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December 9, 2016 5:00 am

China is preparing to conduct a flight test of a new missile capable of destroying satellites in space, one of Beijing’s most potent asymmetric warfare weapons.

Test preparations for the Dong Neng-3 anti-satellite missile were detected at a military facility in central China, according to Pentagon officials familiar with reports of the impending test.

Intelligence agencies were alerted to the impending test by China’s announcement of air closure zones covering the expected flight path of the DN-3.

The flight test could come as early as Thursday, the officials said.

No other details of the missile test were available. A Pentagon spokesman and a State Department official both said, “We do not comment on intelligence matters.”

Asia watcher Henri Kenhmann reported on his website Eastpendulum.com this week that missile tests were expected from the People’s Liberation Army satellite launch facility known as Jiuquan, located in Inner Mongolia, and a second launch complex at Korla, located in Xinjiang, western China.

The expected tests were based on Chinese government announcements of air closure areas for Dec. 7 and Dec. 8 near those sites.

Kenhmann said the flight tests could involve a missile defense interceptor test.

China’s ballistic missile defense and anti-satellite missile programs are closely intertwined.

After Beijing came under international criticism following a 2007 anti-satellite missile test that left thousands of pieces of floating debris in space, it began conducting its anti-satellite missile program under cover of a missile defense system.

The last time China

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a DN-3 anti-satellite missile was Oct. 30, 2015 from the Korla Missile Test Complex.

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Kuaizhou-11 space launcher

The anti-satellite missiles are part of what the Pentagon calls “counterspace” forces, part of China’s large-scale military buildup.

“The PLA is acquiring a range of technologies to improve China’s counterspace capabilities,” the Pentagon’s latest report on the Chinese military said.

“In addition to the development of directed energy weapons and satellite jammers, China is also developing anti-satellite capabilities and has probably made progress on the anti-satellite missile system it tested in July 2014.”

In addition to missiles and lasers, China also is working on small maneuvering satellites that can grab and destroy orbiting satellites.

Richard Fisher, a China military affairs specialist, said the DN-3 appears to be based on the Kuaizhou-1 (KZ-1) mobile space launch vehicle.

“It’s about the same size as the DF-31 solid fuel mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM),” he said.

Fisher, senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the DN-3 could be capable of hitting satellites more than 18,640 miles away in space—more than enough to reach large U.S. surveillance satellites that occupy orbit 186 to 620 miles from earth.

“In late 2016 or by mid 2017 the PLA may test a larger solid fuel mobile space launch vehicle called the KZ-11, with a 2-meter diameter motor similar in size to the new large and multiple warhead armed DF-41 ICBM,” Fisher said.

Another space launcher on a mobile transporter is being developed called the Long March-11 (LM-11).

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Long March-11 space launcher

“Both the KZ-11 and the LM-11 are four-stage solid fuel mobile missiles that could also be used for anti-satellite missions,” Fisher said.

“The bottom line is that the PLA now has at least two deployed ground-launched, mobile, solid fueled direct-ascent ASAT [anti-satellite] systems and may be able to soon field two more larger third generation ground-launched ASAT systems,” he added.

The anti-satellite weapons programs are believed to be under the PLA’s new Strategic Support Force, a dedicated space warfare and cyber warfare service set up in late 2015.

The developmental KZ-11 and LM-11 systems may be used by China to target U.S. Defense Support Program (DSP) early warning satellites, along with high-orbit Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation satellites.

The DN-3 is known as a direct-ascent anti-satellite missile that destroys satellites with a warhead that rams into orbiting systems at high speeds. The DN-3 is also said to have the capability to intercept ballistic missiles in flight.

If the DN-3 test is carried out, it will be China’s ninth known anti-satellite missile test. An earlier anti-satellite missile test was carried out in July 2014.

For both the October 2015 and July 2014 tests, China asserted the tests were part of a missile defense interceptor program.

U.S. officials, however, said both test involved anti-satellite weapons.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman did not return an email seeking comment.

Frank Rose, assistant secretary of state for arms control, verification, and compliance said in February 2015 that Beijing engaged in deception about the 2014 test.

“Despite China’s claims that this was not an ASAT test; let me assure you the United States has high confidence in its assessment, that the event was indeed an ASAT test,” Rose said.

“The continued development and testing of destructive ASAT systems is both destabilizing and threatens the long-term security and sustainability of the outer space environment,” he added.

Chinese netizens posted

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of the purported 2015 ASAT test near Korla, showing contrails said to be the result of the missile.

China also has two additional anti-satellite missiles known as the SC-19 and DN-2.

Update 11:01 A.M.: This article has been updated to reflect that a Pentagon spokesman said, “We do not comment on intelligence matters.”

 

[Hyperwarp]

Is there a DF-41 test planned? -

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