Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Henri K speculation that the NOTAM has something to do with Hypersonic drone test
The analysis of several NOTAM to be held September 25, 2016 from 08:30 24:20 local time suggests that China could proceed, for the 4th time in a month, a hypersonic drone test.
Both NOTAMs that suggest that this is a hypersonic test are the A2530 and A2528, they prohibit overflight above 10 400m above sea level on seven air segments - the first from 08:30 to 10:00 hours local, and the second between 09:00 and 12:00. The period of several hours and the high altitude of the prohibited areas are characterizing a hypersonic flight.
NOTAM A2531 / 16 A2530 / 16 and A2528 / 16 of 25 September 2016
NOTAM A2531 / 16 (orange), A2530 / 16 (orange) and A2528 / 16 (yellow) of September 25, 2016
All these closed segments constitute a sort of long corridor of 300km 2, from East to West. This distance can be covered in approximately 38 minutes for a flying machine Mach 3, or 23 minutes at Mach 5, while the ban lasts up to 180 minutes, which is clearly not the flight to hypersonic drone.
Other comments can be done is that the corridor "created" by the yellow lines lasts twice as long as the orange lines, and saw the chronological order of three NOTAMs in the diagram above, one can imagine that the machine will be the West to the East, or is part of the East, it will have turned around at the end of the orange lines.
so you have other elements to see more clearly and try to reconstruct the trajectory possible.
In this table we find a total of seven staff NOTAM from 08:30 12:20 local time throughout the western part of China.
NOTAM Beginning (UTC) End (UTC) Low Limit High Limit Color Code
A2531 / 16 0:30 2:00 Ground Level Infinite Orange
A2530 / 16 0:30 2:00 10 100m Infinite Orange
A2528 / 16 1:00 4:00 10 400m Infinity Yellow
A2527 / 16 1:00 2:40 7 800 9 800 Green
A2526 / 16 1:00 2:30 9 11 200m 000m Rouge
A2532 / 16 2:00 3:30 Ground Level 11 600m Rose
A2529 / 16 3:00 4:20 8 10 400m 400m Violet
The first five NOTAMs suggest that hypersonic drone and its bearer left the Dingxing airbase, as previous tests.
The machine is then released to the purple and red lines area before climbing in altitude and speed to take the corridor that we talked about earlier.
Here is one of the possible paths (white track) once the drone has separated from its carrier, taking into account the timetable slots of all NOTAMs cities and the speed of the drone. The distance of the course is approximately 5 365km.
Path possible to the Chinese hypersonic drone
Path possible to the Chinese hypersonic drone
The first scenario represents some "gaps" at the time. For example we need the hypersonic drone flies at speeds beyond Mach 5 to be able to turn around and leave the orange area in time before the end of it.
The other possibility is therefore that the craft to turn around at the western end of the yellow area, and then consider the orange as the safety zone in case the flight goes wrong.
Finally, two NOTAMs have not found an explanation, it is the pink zone in the north and the two green lines to the south.
Anyway, if this test is confirmed and appropriate, it will be the fourth in just one month after the 26 August, September 5th and September 9th. This test frequency, and especially the test areas increasingly complex, give us perhaps some interesting insight into the progress of this program developed by the Institute 611 of AVIC group to Chengdu ...
The case forward.
Henry K.
The analysis of several NOTAM to be held September 25, 2016 from 08:30 24:20 local time suggests that China could proceed, for the 4th time in a month, a hypersonic drone test.
Both NOTAMs that suggest that this is a hypersonic test are the A2530 and A2528, they prohibit overflight above 10 400m above sea level on seven air segments - the first from 08:30 to 10:00 hours local, and the second between 09:00 and 12:00. The period of several hours and the high altitude of the prohibited areas are characterizing a hypersonic flight.
NOTAM A2531 / 16 A2530 / 16 and A2528 / 16 of 25 September 2016
NOTAM A2531 / 16 (orange), A2530 / 16 (orange) and A2528 / 16 (yellow) of September 25, 2016
All these closed segments constitute a sort of long corridor of 300km 2, from East to West. This distance can be covered in approximately 38 minutes for a flying machine Mach 3, or 23 minutes at Mach 5, while the ban lasts up to 180 minutes, which is clearly not the flight to hypersonic drone.
Other comments can be done is that the corridor "created" by the yellow lines lasts twice as long as the orange lines, and saw the chronological order of three NOTAMs in the diagram above, one can imagine that the machine will be the West to the East, or is part of the East, it will have turned around at the end of the orange lines.
so you have other elements to see more clearly and try to reconstruct the trajectory possible.
In this table we find a total of seven staff NOTAM from 08:30 12:20 local time throughout the western part of China.
NOTAM Beginning (UTC) End (UTC) Low Limit High Limit Color Code
A2531 / 16 0:30 2:00 Ground Level Infinite Orange
A2530 / 16 0:30 2:00 10 100m Infinite Orange
A2528 / 16 1:00 4:00 10 400m Infinity Yellow
A2527 / 16 1:00 2:40 7 800 9 800 Green
A2526 / 16 1:00 2:30 9 11 200m 000m Rouge
A2532 / 16 2:00 3:30 Ground Level 11 600m Rose
A2529 / 16 3:00 4:20 8 10 400m 400m Violet
The first five NOTAMs suggest that hypersonic drone and its bearer left the Dingxing airbase, as previous tests.
The machine is then released to the purple and red lines area before climbing in altitude and speed to take the corridor that we talked about earlier.
Here is one of the possible paths (white track) once the drone has separated from its carrier, taking into account the timetable slots of all NOTAMs cities and the speed of the drone. The distance of the course is approximately 5 365km.
Path possible to the Chinese hypersonic drone
Path possible to the Chinese hypersonic drone
The first scenario represents some "gaps" at the time. For example we need the hypersonic drone flies at speeds beyond Mach 5 to be able to turn around and leave the orange area in time before the end of it.
The other possibility is therefore that the craft to turn around at the western end of the yellow area, and then consider the orange as the safety zone in case the flight goes wrong.
Finally, two NOTAMs have not found an explanation, it is the pink zone in the north and the two green lines to the south.
Anyway, if this test is confirmed and appropriate, it will be the fourth in just one month after the 26 August, September 5th and September 9th. This test frequency, and especially the test areas increasingly complex, give us perhaps some interesting insight into the progress of this program developed by the Institute 611 of AVIC group to Chengdu ...
The case forward.
Henry K.
![_CCTV-CCTV-1_(cctvcom).mp4_snapshot_01.08_[2016.09.28_14.42.06].jpg](https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/data/attachments/27/27101-f905b7fbf1037a7d31b34f1671c28b48.jpg "_CCTV-CCTV-1_(cctvcom).mp4_snapshot_01.08_[2016.09.28_14.42.06].jpg")
![_CCTV-CCTV-1_(cctvcom).mp4_snapshot_01.10_[2016.09.28_14.42.40].jpg](https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/data/attachments/27/27102-7d21fbc129c884fc5625a876f385216d.jpg "_CCTV-CCTV-1_(cctvcom).mp4_snapshot_01.10_[2016.09.28_14.42.40].jpg")
![_CCTV-CCTV-1_(cctvcom).mp4_snapshot_01.10_[2016.09.28_14.43.10].jpg](https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/data/attachments/27/27103-216a03df24b48467dcb6b675d0cb487a.jpg "_CCTV-CCTV-1_(cctvcom).mp4_snapshot_01.10_[2016.09.28_14.43.10].jpg")
