China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Ultra]

Ummm...........

WTF happened to "China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread"?

View attachment 29292

Indeed indeed. Mao approve too!

 

[AndrewS]

Andrew, I like your post, and I have read your previous post. To a certain extent I agree, there is potential for India to be trap in the middle income trap. But there is a big difference between India and Brazil.

Brazil is in American sphere of influence. In geopolitics, america will keep all of its southern neighbours as poor as it can, as a source of cheap and plentiful labour source.

Now India on the other hand is on the otherside of the ocean, and it is right besides its nearest near rival China. Like the China before it, America will try to give all its support to India so it can be a thorn to China's side just like China was to the Soviet.

The reason Brazil is stuck in the middle income trap is through its own efforts. Not because the USA wants lots of cheap workers (which would come from Mexico in any case)

eg.
Crazy laws. For example, a company that pays all its taxes will always make a loss
Dismal education and infrastructure spending
Corrupt government and domestic political chaos
Welfare and pension spending instead of infrastructure/health/education

But did you factor in the slow down of Chinese economy though? China will not be able to sustain 5-6% growth for long.

73% of China's current growth (6.7%) is now from services.

So China could sustain 5-6% growth for at least another decade, and probably much longer.

NB. Success comes from lifting oneself up in spite of adversity and difficulties. Not from taking a victim mentality and blaming others for your situation. That applies to both individuals and nations.

 

[manqiangrexue]

No you can't predict how fast something will grow. That I agree, but every indication shows India is been given ALL the support by the WEST (mainly US and its allies) setting up to be the direct competitor for China. They give them deals, tell their industry to move out of China and move to India, giving Indians points how to emulate the Chinese (but not too closely mind you! Don't want them indians become another commie! Oh who am I kiddin' the WEST will call a black cat a white tiger if it suits them)..etc etc.

But you can predict how a maturing economy will slow down. China cannot and WILL NOT be able to continue to sustain its economic growth. Like every matured economies before it, eventually it will slow down like a sprinter that got tired and ran out of steam. China will slow down to 2% or less. And that's an optimistic projection. Some countries go to the negative end of the scale.

Where do you get your 2% number from? Why not 3% or 1.5% or 1%? Are you using traditional Western metrics and equations to do this prediction? Because I gotta tell you, every part about China being where it is today is because it defies Western economics. It is able to march to its own tune.

About India surpassing China: no one can predict the future and I cannot say with confidence what will happen much less when. But I believe that is a major, major reason that India cannot reproduce what China has done so in the past 2-3 decades. I want to avoid sounding racist here so some points will be left to your imagination. Imagine you are a rich American who wants to find a place to manufacture your goods. At first, you'll want to be there to supervise the whole process before you expand and hire a manager. Now imagine you go to China. Goodness gosh! The streets are clean (when you stay in the good parts, which you mostly will), the food is unbelievable and diverse! There aren't enough meals in the day! Your Chinese partners take you out and you drink with them in an air-conditioned room with pretty, fair-skinned girls who smell pleasant, and you sing karaoke to your heart's content! And you once again, you smell nothing, at least nothing bad. Heck, you're having so much fun, you wanna get married, stay here, and spend all your money. Or at least you're not adverse to spending time there and neither are your managers if you decide to send an American from your company after you go home. Now let's say you invest in another country; let's say it's called Mordor. You get off the airplane and you feel the 130 degree summer heat and humidity. And why does it smell like burning trash on the streets? The food is acceptable, even good! But it basically all tastes the same more or less. You establish your factory and when the locals ask you to go celebrate, you go! After some drinking and sweating, the room smells like an orc pit and you're not the culprit! The girls are darker skinned, often a bit hairy on the arms and they smell just like the room! Air conditioning is a rare treat! By the time you're done, you are on the first flight out and you preferably want that jet to be supersonic. The managers you send from home to supervise all warn you that they will not stay for more than 2 months at a time, so basically just as they're savvy to the operations, they get transferred out. You decide to hire a manager from Mordor who speaks English, but you don't know if the guys is screwing you left and right in favor of his local pals. Which place would you rather do business with?

Then you have the question of momentum. How many Universities teach Mandarin and how many students (often business students) take that course? How many offer Hindi and how many students take that course? How many people entering the business workforce are equipped to do business in these 2 places?

I know the government would prefer to throw its weight behind Mordor than China but government vs. private sector: who has more weight? Who has more money? Who gets things done faster? In science, we have a joke, and that's if you want anything done, give it to private companies. The government can award billion dollar contracts to one country, but it won't prop it up if thousands of its businesses prefer to go to the other simply because the best business is business mixed with pleasure.

Oh, and I don't wanna be off topic from this thread so... Chinese missiles are cool!! LOL

 

[Ultra]

Where do you get your 2% number from? Why not 3% or 1.5% or 1%? Are you using traditional Western metrics and equations to do this prediction? Because I gotta tell you, every part about China being where it is today is because it defies Western economics. It is able to march to its own tune.

About India surpassing China: no one can predict the future and I cannot say with confidence what will happen much less when. But I believe that is a major, major reason that India cannot reproduce what China has done so in the past 2-3 decades. I want to avoid sounding racist here so some points will be left to your imagination. Imagine you are a rich American who wants to find a place to manufacture your goods. At first, you'll want to be there to supervise the whole process before you expand and hire a manager. Now imagine you go to China. Goodness gosh! The streets are clean (when you stay in the good parts, which you mostly will), the food is unbelievable and diverse! There aren't enough meals in the day! Your Chinese partners take you out and you drink with them in an air-conditioned room with pretty, fair-skinned girls who smell pleasant, and you sing karaoke to your heart's content! And you once again, you smell nothing, at least nothing bad. Heck, you're having so much fun, you wanna get married, stay here, and spend all your money. Or at least you're not adverse to spending time there and neither are your managers if you decide to send an American from your company after you go home. Now let's say you invest in another country; let's say it's called Mordor. You get off the airplane and you feel the 130 degree summer heat and humidity. And why does it smell like burning trash on the streets? The food is acceptable, even good! But it basically all tastes the same more or less. You establish your factory and when the locals ask you to go celebrate, you go! After some drinking and sweating, the room smells like an orc pit and you're not the culprit! The girls are darker skinned, often a bit hairy on the arms and they smell just like the room! Air conditioning is a rare treat! By the time you're done, you are on the first flight out and you preferably want that jet to be supersonic. The managers you send from home to supervise all warn you that they will not stay for more than 2 months at a time, so basically just as they're savvy to the operations, they get transferred out. You decide to hire a manager from Mordor who speaks English, but you don't know if the guys is screwing you left and right in favor of his local pals. Which place would you rather do business with?

Then you have the question of momentum. How many Universities teach Mandarin and how many students (often business students) take that course? How many offer Hindi and how many students take that course? How many people entering the business workforce are equipped to do business in these 2 places?

I know the government would prefer to throw its weight behind Mordor than China but government vs. private sector: who has more weight? Who has more money? Who gets things done faster? In science, we have a joke, and that's if you want anything done, give it to private companies. The government can award billion dollar contracts to one country, but it won't prop it up if thousands of its businesses prefer to go to the other simply because the best business is business mixed with pleasure.

Oh, and I don't wanna be off topic from this thread so... Chinese missiles are cool!! LOL

That sounds incredibly racists you know. But I like your last line because it made me laugh so I giving you a thumbs up.

 

[kriss]

Jeez, china just officially revealed they've conducted successful mid-course ballistic missile interception and there follows 5 pages of economic bullshit.

 

[Lethe]

I want to avoid sounding racist

Yeah, well, it didn't work.

Where are the mods to clean up this crap?

 

[Broccoli]

Indians already have missiles like Agni V what can reach China but their biggest problems is the fact that their only reliable warhead (weapon what is actually tested) has a yield of 12-22kt and their only thermonuclear test was a fizzle.

 

[Iron Man]

1) China is/was the last country to ride the industrialization train to prosperity. India will miss the train because robots.
2) Fantasizing that India will instead substitute industrialization by developing some kind of massive service sector is pure Bollywood fantasy.
3) Ballistic missiles are way cool.

 

[tidalwave]

Thaad at S Korea , and possibly later at Philippines and Taiwan means China land based nuke counter strike will become useless. It's next gen 096 and submarine based JL3 ICBM will become critical.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Thaad at S Korea , and possibly later at Philippines and Taiwan means China land based nuke counter strike will become useless. It's next gen 096 and submarine based JL3 ICBM will become critical.

Agree that is why SCS is so important to China . The only route open to west pacific is Hainan->South China sea-Balabac strait the out to pacific. Where those fortress Islet can provide air cover,surveillance and intelligence info,logistic, guidance etc

Alternative there are many strait between SCS and west Pacific where the Type 96 can hide
Like Karimata strait between Sumatra and Kalimantan then thru Makassar strait out to pacific
Too many straits for opfor to watch