"Only 9 months." So how long should we wait? 9 years? 90 years? When do you expect China to reap a reward for this horrible incident, and what do you expect it to be? Please answer this question.
It's very well possible that China is already benefiting from the chain of events in a much less conspicuous way. We don't necessarily need to observe them all at this time. Border skirmishes often less relevant with the immediate claims and more about pressuring the opposite side into something. I'm not claiming this is the case here but one should widen the range of possibilities.
My source is common sense. Do you really think antagonizing a country of 1.4 billion people with a fast growing economy and driving them into the arms of the Quad is a smart idea? In what universe is that good for China? Generally being surrounded by enemies is not a good thing. You can take that to the bank.
Firstly, this goes both ways. India has done its' part by taking unilateral action on a disputed area for the sake of a set of domestic policy goals. It was clear that this action would create an undesired reaction from the other claimants.
(I'd rather not bother with the claim of the fast-growing economy part.)
Secondly, the Quad is usually mistaken for an alliance with clear goals. It's a security dialogue mechanism, exploring the possibilities of mutual grounds for developing mutual defense policies. There is no security commitment there, mostly consultations when deemed necessary. In some 20 years, it could turn into something solid or quite possibly stay as vague as it is today.
Thirdly, neither Japan nor Australia would risk their beneficial and somewhat unique relations with China on questionable grounds for an over-glorified isolationist village pretending to be a superpower, ready to implode.
(See their respective trade volumes with India and China.) If the Indian decision-makers consider this endeavor of the Quad as an escape route, they're looking at the wrong place. (
See the last paragraph.)
Well since they have now disengaged, the damage can be mitigated, and it might not be so bad. That's the point. If they work to improve relations now, there will be no negative long term consequences.
Modi was in power in 2016 when relations were better.
The BJP is employing the whole storyline to feed the withered fraternalism, just like their predecessors did. So one would be wise if lowered the expectations as nothing we see here are new.
[Modi was in power in 2016] and Doklam happened in 2017. Later Modi has successfully managed to reverse the whole bilateral process for empty promises. Now India is all alone between two nuclear-armed nations with strings of obscure commitments. As if that wasn't enough, he's now gambling on weak ties with the US over the S-400 deal. That could trigger the CAATSA sanctions, thus ending up hindering the ongoing beneficial deals with France.
