Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread

[Blitzo]

The obvious fallcy aside, I want to confirm that are we one of the earliest people to know that the J-36 is trijet, no? And the fact that (I think) he mistakened Yankee for actual Americans is pretty hilarious too.

Let's not directly address arguments and accusations from Twitter that directly reference us.

Posts deleted.

This forum, and this thread should not seek to engage in direct slapfights with others, including those of other communities/cohorts.

 

[kurutoga]

But even if the F/A-XX is going to match the notional 3000km range of the larger land-based NGAD, it doesn't change the balance of power.

At the very most, the US Navy could have 3 deployed carriers (aka floating airbases) at a distance of 3000km.

But China should be able to control the air at that distance, because it can field a larger force of J-36.

---

Given that the J-36 is already flying, that implies it will be in service ahead of NGAD or F/A-XX.

At the same time, we'll probably see China "outspending" the US in arms race and building more 6th gen aircraft.

If you ignore the undervalued exchange rate controlled by the Chinese government, then in terms of actual output of goods and services, the Washington-based World Bank purchasing power parity numbers suggest the Chinese economy is actually 25% larger than the US economy.

And if you correct for measurement differences (such imputed rent in the US and the undercounting of Chinese consumption figures), the indications are the Chinese economy is somewhere between 50-100% larger than the US.




If they're still planning on operating NGAD from the Second Island Chain, it doesn't matter how expensive or no-compromise the NGAD is. Nor does it really matter how many NGADs are built.

Let's say there is a better NGAD and they concentrate enough to retain local air superiority around Guam, the limitation is still the number of airbases. Those airbases and their runways will still be under attack, which means more aircraft will be trapped on the ground, unable to takeoff and therefore vulnerable to follow on attacks.

And trying to operate an Air Dominance aircraft from the Third Island Chain will require something bigger than the B-21. Even if technologically feasible, the cost is going to be unaffordable. NGAD at $300 Mn is already being called unaffordable, and the B-21 is $800 Mn

In my opinion we can't rule out the American F/A-XX or NGAD too quickly, as long as US can make them and deploy them, they are still a deterrence. With a longer range, the AF would be able to fly from Alaska, Australia, Hawaii, ... to Taiwan and back, while keeping the tankers outside of the warzone. For Navy they will have to gradually move the carriers deployed in the Atlantic Ocean to be near Taiwan. In the perfect situation, in about 3 weeks, US military can accumulate a few hundred fighter jets that can reach Taiwan, if both next gen programs go well.

It is a hypothetical scenario of course. Let's see how Trump responds.

 

[iewgnem]

In my opinion we can't rule out the American F/A-XX or NGAD too quickly, as long as US can make them and deploy them, they are still a deterrence. With a longer range, the AF would be able to fly from Alaska, Australia, Hawaii, ... to Taiwan and back, while keeping the tankers outside of the warzone. For Navy they will have to gradually move the carriers deployed in the Atlantic Ocean to be near Taiwan. In the perfect situation, in about 3 weeks, US military can accumulate a few hundred fighter jets that can reach Taiwan, if both next gen programs go well.

It is a hypothetical scenario of course. Let's see how Trump responds.

The tyranny of distance is immutable, Sortie generation of having to fly from Alaska and Hawaii is equivalent to reducing your fleet size by >80%, that means a few hundred gets reduced to a few tens, and US will not be on the side with numerical advantage when it comes to next gen if they're able to build any at all.

At end of the day the idea of US fighting China over Taiwan is simple not viable and all attempts to figure out a way is an exercise in rectifying imperial delusion with reality. China isn't standing still waiting for the US, by the time US builds 100x 6th gen, assuming they're able, China will already be half way to 7th gen, the orbital bomber tested in 2021 would have entered service, and the new NGAD will find itself once again obsolete before completion, this is just the reality of being outmatched in industrial, financial and R&D capacity.

 

[4Runner]

Mig-25 was a brute-force design, which was ahead of its time. SR-71 could also be called a brute-force design, which as ahead of its time. J-36 is obviously a design of its time, which makes commons senses in today's convergence of material science, stealth technologies, information warfares, UAV developments, engine technologies, and last but not the least, AI assisted solutions. If F-22 and J20 can be legitimately called 5th gen, calling J-36 a sixth gen is a no brainer in the context of modern air-force development. The initial reaction to J-36 from western MSM was more retarded than that of Chinese software-defined NEVs, but understandably so. The last thing the west concedes would very likely be the air superiority.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

Couple thoughts:

Looking back, this thing should have implications for the development of WS-15 and H-20, and potentially contributed to their prolonged developments. Unless I missed something, I actually don't see why J-36 being unveiled means we should expect H-20 to be unveiled any sooner.

Considering the avionics, engine, and whatnot, it's clear that J-36 is going to be expensive. Yankee and friends have suggested (roughly) that it would not be surprising if its cost is on the level with that of an H-20.

 

[antwerpery]

I wonder what we will see in Zhuhai 2026

 

[Fatty]

I think you may be underestimating the psychological impact the CHAD will have on American decision makers, and the implications of that on the NGAD’s target performance, which in turn will impact on the price and expected service entry date.

I wouldn’t underestimate the American deep state based off of internet things you see on platforms like Twitter. It helps when you realize that you are talking to literal children that have no actual access to the wheels of power.

I saw a twitter thread yesterday where some NAFO guy was calling our own Rick Joe an idiot and acting all mysterious as if he had some classified info and it turned out he was literally a random college student at SMU that had an interest in defense. He didn’t even hide it either.

 

[tphuang]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I've written up some secondary and tertiary effect now. Just as a main course, here are 3000 km radius circles drawn around Kashgar, Harbin, Shanghai and Sanya. That's how far 3000 km range gets you.

 

[kurutoga]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I've written up some secondary and tertiary effect now. Just as a main course, here are 3000 km radius circles drawn around Kashgar, Harbin, Shanghai and Sanya. That's how far 3000 km range gets you.

Agree totally except that 076 may not be able to fully support manned jets given parts/personnel requirements.

Then, here is a reminder for everybody, that 2038 is only 14 years from 2024. By now we all know what that means, right?

Also, from last week Medvedev's visit to Beijing. There are rumors that he mentioned turning Russia's Far East Region over to China as territory!? If so it will make Bering Sea air bases possible. I am not holding my breath for that though

 

[00CuriousObserver]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I've written up some secondary and tertiary effect now. Just as a main course, here are 3000 km radius circles drawn around Kashgar, Harbin, Shanghai and Sanya. That's how far 3000 km range gets you.

View attachment 142665

Quick comment, it might be a good idea to write out what CFTE is. Also, "On a Type 06", did you mean 076?