Cambodian-Thai border started gunfire
- Thread starter SteelBird
- Start date
MwRYum
Major
As we all know, Thailand is rift with its own internal problems, obviously the "Red Shirt vs Yellow Shirt" is just one of them and catch more publicity. And the old formula when you got such an internal problem and election is coming would be...you guess it, start a war. It's just like the time when Argentina started the Falkland War back in the 1980s.
Of course it'd work so long as you don't lose, and so far Thailand just reach a stalemate, not losing. And it'd be hard to lose against somebody as broke as Cambodia, and neither does fighting would spill anywhere beyond the border region, the cash cows a la tourist regions won't be affected.
The problem would be how long can Thailand sustain this? It's unlikely to resolve with either side happily walk away result unless things escalate, with one side get so beaten up they gotta throw in the towel. For both side, this would no longer border dispute but open warfare, with or without official declaration it doesn't matter.
And why not the military rule upfront instead? We can see that they prefer this proxy for status quo. And it looks good with your country relies heavily on tourism.
Spartan95
Junior Member
The military cannot rule up front. Otherwise, they will be listed as a junta (like Myanmar) and be subjected to sanctions from the majority of their trading partners.
However, having the military as a "caretaker" government while a "new constitution" is being drafted is a different matter, as happened a few years back following the 2006 coup.
With regard to history, each country remembers and glorifies their most powerful period. The Cambodians have theirs, Myanmar have theirs and Thailand have theirs. It's not surprising that each country hardly remembers (or perhaps they avoid talking about) the historical period when their country is weak.
Anyway, election in Thailand is scheduled for 3 July:
Hopefully, the election will be a 1st step in solving the current impasse between the yellow and red shirts as well as putting in place a government that can resolve the issues with Cambodia. But, I'm not holding my breath for such an outcome....
Semi-Lobster
Junior Member
I am sceptical the election will solve anything either, infact, it could just make things worse. Right now a lot is riding on those Indonesian observers actually being allowed to do their jobs but Thailand continues to refuse accept then, as recently as yesterday. I just hope the situation isn't purposely intensified right before the election for some political capital...
MwRYum
Major
That's what I've been saying, Or you've been mistaken otherwise...
It's pretty convenient, they can claim it's still a democracy yet step in anytime when the civilian gov't can't handle things.
It's very unlikely, for the rift is very fundamental, social-class based, not ideology. Red Shirt are those of the rural and the poor (and also the majority of the population), while the Yellow Shirts are those of the city middle class and who benefit from the status quo. Before Thaksin came in the aforementioned group were largely ignored, but Thaksin turned them into his powerbase by introducing various welfare to them. The wealth gap between the 2 groups is just too large for anyone to make a bridge between.
And for the current conflict, it'd yet to be seen if things would cool down after the election, or actually escalate further - Thailand still have the upper hand and if the good old gambler mentality applies, they may see it profitable to push for more via military means.
Spartan95
Junior Member
Not quite. Before Thaksin came in, the rural poor firmly belonged to the power base of the King of Thailand. Thaksin changed all that and was thus seen as usurping the royal power base. Hence, the various royal audiences Thaksin had in the few years leading up to the coup.
This was 1 of the reasons why the King of Thailand didn't do anything to stop the 2006 coup. And why the supporters of the coup wear yellow (signifying what they are doing are in defence of the King).
MwRYum
Major
Save the Muslims in the southern region, the King has everyone. The current King enjoys the respect of his subject and held sway of the politics, an last resort arbiter of sort, though who ultimately controls Thailand is the military, the true ruling elites. Thailand's system is constitutional monarchy, while the King is the symbolic leader everything else is still up to the ruling elites in Bangkok, and it's they who ignored the poor majority.
And what could the King do when the coup was done in His name?
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Spartan95
Junior Member
If only it was so clear cut.
When the coup happened in 2006, the Queen actually visited the troops who carried it out. This was carried in media reports. Is it a coincidence that the visit took place? Or was it a sign of Royal support for the coup?
Similarly, during some of the mass demonstrations, the Queen turned up at yellow shirt gatherings publicly. Why didn't she turn up at red shirt gatherings?
Also, if the King was against the military or the elite's actions, there would have been a Royal audience with those involved, similar to what happened to Thaksin and several other politicians and military leadership in past decades.
As for the Thai south, that is a mess created by colonialism in centuries past. The 3 Muslim majority states that are now seeking self-rule were originally part of the Kelantan Sultanate (Kelantan is now a state in Malaysia). When the British came, they colonised part of the Kelantan Sultanate, and the northern 3 states the British decided they didn't want to colonise. So, under an Anglo-Thai treaty, those 3 states became part of Thailand, while the rest of the Kelantan Sultanate were absorbed into British Malaya. Thailand has been trying to keep the peace in those southern provinces ever since (~200 years).
I know little about Thai politics, but this I have often read. But the King is now a very old man and he may now be unable to maintain control.
MwRYum
Major
That has been said and many concerned about that as well, because the next in line of the throne doesn't command that much respect, the arbitrary ability of the Royal House would definitely suffered in the future. So either the successor prove his statecraft in time, or the Thais have to think hard of what to do then.