BRICS & New World Order Thread

Serb

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they are just sitting on the fences. Waiting on this grand bargain with US where they get protection in exchange for not getting too close to China and establishing relationship with Israel.

So I think they've been waiting on Trump to come back to get a good deal. At some point, Saudis do have to chose I think. The longer they wait, the less useful they get. I don't think the leadership there really understands this.

They are what I would call a depreciating asset.


Direct protection from the US is not worth much since the US's situation in the medium and even short term is under a major question mark.

And they already have all the informal protection from them that is possible short of an official bilateral defense agreement with them.

I think if they were to do this grand bargain, they should go for something more tangible, and long-lasting, to develop internally first.

But I'm not sure how capable the US currently is to help them build their civil nuclear industry or major weapon systems co-production locally.

The normalization with Israel and cutting back on China, in this very moment, are truly decisive historical moments, they would think twice about, it's understandable.

And if you ask me, I think that China is a much more fitting partner for those two things than the US due to US's tremendous inefficiency.
 

MelianPretext

New Member
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BRICS is rather interesting because it appears to be heading down the path of the self-fulfilling prophecy. In practice, it’s little more than a flashy name and a social club for government leaders to meet at all those annual conferences, with little tangible impact to show for it. Contradictorily, however, this lack of concrete action seemingly has allowed people to project onto BRICS whatever they want it to be, actually further contributing to its inflated sense of significance.

One remarkable thing that comes out of this phenomenon is that, due to the presence of China and Russia in the group, the West, as an outsider looking in, is unable to resist framing the group's actions through its Sinophobic and Russophobic perceptions. This means that the other countries are lumped together with China and Russia by association through the West's paranoia. Countries that had no interest at all in really siding with China and Russia in any major respects against the West, like Brazil, South Africa and even India, suddenly found themselves non-consensually grouped together with them by the West itself whenever it makes those "G7 vs BRICS" narrative comparisons, or frames BRICS as a "anti-Western bloc."

The self-promotion of BRICS by its member countries, I would say in part by their governments as a way to elevate their countries to the stature of China and Russia on the world stage, has lend it a particular exaggerated and overblown common perception in those countries for nationalistic reasonings. To give one superficial example, I've surprisingly frequently encountered Indian news coverage of the grouping use that "BRICS" logo where each letter has that country's flag, meaning that the Indian flag "I" is right in the middle, which I suspect is the reason why they use it. All this is meant to say that all the hype around BRICS, despite being frankly all talk and little action, has created a decent level of nationalistic pride from a large amount of the populations of the member countries. Therefore, whenever Western media blow up BRICS as some boogeyman against the West or when politicians like Trump openly threaten to tariff the group if they threaten US dollar hegemony, it actually can elicit a sense of indignation from those member countries.

In truth, whenever the West talks about BRICS, they're really often just talking about China and Russia, yet through this, the entire group gets painted with the same brush. This casts BRICS as more consequential than it is, and in a curious twist, it even fosters a certain solidarity among the countries in the group, including those like Brazil or South Africa that might not have otherwise seen much common ground with China and Russia. Those countries are not necessarily opposed to the West, but have a certain sense of high national pride - as the leading developing countries of the Global South - that gets hit as collateral damage whenever the West simple-mindedly attacks BRICS as a means to just attack China or Russia. This mirrors the history of previous 20th century Global South groupings like the NAM following Bandung, where the external reactions in lumping the group as some credible unit helped it bond together more than any internal actions did.

Through BRICS, China, for its part, also has gained a form of soft power connection with countries that have little historical or cultural connection to it, such as Brazil and South Africa. For example, consequentially, it's also provided the announcement stage for the recent attempt at Sino-Indian detente, which I doubt is a mere coincidence as such a move could be justified domestically by Modi through the BRICS mechanism as "being the bigger person for the sake of the group" and "to give Russia face as the host" in a way that ultranationalist sentiment in India might have been outraged by if conducted in a strictly bilateral context.

Through this, I'd say the foremost factor behind the development of the grouping in any relevant measures will not be primarily any internal dynamics but the external response from the West. In short, if the grouping actually ever gets anywhere materially, it will be principally because the West is effectively helping to create the very thing in actuality it views BRICS to be in its imagination.
 
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tphuang

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Direct protection from the US is not worth much since the US's situation in the medium and even short term is under a major question mark.

And they already have all the informal protection from them that is possible short of an official bilateral defense agreement with them.

I think if they were to do this grand bargain, they should go for something more tangible, and long-lasting, to develop internally first.

But I'm not sure how capable the US currently is to help them build their civil nuclear industry or major weapon systems co-production locally.

The normalization with Israel and cutting back on China, in this very moment, are truly decisive historical moments, they would think twice about, it's understandable.

And if you ask me, I think that China is a much more fitting partner for those two things than the US due to US's tremendous inefficiency.
how we look at the situation might not be how these middle eastern rulers look at things.

Saudis are disappointing, let's just put it that way.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
this is great news. I would agree that Indonesia is more important than even Saudi Arabia.

Indonesia is a growing power and the 4th most populous nation in the world.

Saudi Arabia is on the way down and since that declining oil price can't sustain their spending spree.

And a full membership too. They deserve it. Frankly, Saudis should get kicked out if they keep sitting on the fences.

My only complain is of BYD being so slow in introducing new models and high prices here in Indonesia.
 

SAC

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Indonesia becoming a full member of BRICS is a very significant development. Apart from the economic benefit that should translate to Indonesia itself, this is very significant from a regional and I would say global geo-strategic perspective. Indonesian statics aside, we see a globally significant country, and a very significant regional country, happily joining an organisation that is counter to U.S. interests, noting the long-standing influence the U.S. has had over Indonesia.
 

ansy1968

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Registered Member
Indonesia becoming a full member of BRICS is a very significant development. Apart from the economic benefit that should translate to Indonesia itself, this is very significant from a regional and I would say global geo-strategic perspective. Indonesian statics aside, we see a globally significant country, and a very significant regional country, happily joining an organisation that is counter to U.S. interests, noting the long-standing influence the U.S. has had over Indonesia.
I've been saying for China having Thailand and Indonesia in their sphere of influence guaranteed ASEAN bloc on her side. These 2 are the powerhouse of ASEAN with them on board you will see a paradigm shift in East Asia or the Sino sphere region including Vietnam as the economic forces of China rise in the Asia Pacific while that of the US decline.

With Indonesia onboard, you can expect uneasiness and panic from Canberra, can the Trump administration be onboard to distabilized and Balkanized Indonesia, a strategic goal of Australia. Time will tell BUT from what I'd seen from his action, Trump save the Duterte administration when he personally put a stop on Obama administration plan of Colored Revolution by removing US Ambassador Goldberg and turn a blind eye on Duterte drug war campaign, maybe calling Obama a SOB do have a positive effect... lol
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Indonesia becoming a full member of BRICS is a very significant development. Apart from the economic benefit that should translate to Indonesia itself, this is very significant from a regional and I would say global geo-strategic perspective. Indonesian statics aside, we see a globally significant country, and a very significant regional country, happily joining an organisation that is counter to U.S. interests, noting the long-standing influence the U.S. has had over Indonesia.
A NO brainer for Indonesia if they think the US will pick them instead of Australia, and also please remember the current Indonesian president is the commander on the ground when the East Timor crisis happened.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Remember it well.
Bro, China next target is Japan, if Tokyo hedge and declare neutral then it will be a total victory for China as Japan served as the linchpin of US hegemony in the region, If Japan fall SK will follow suit.

US exceptionalism and hubris in treating Japan as a vassal subject instead of an ally do reverberate inside the political and economic leadership in Tokyo. As descendant from Samurai there is a limit on their patience, eating bitterness is not their staple food....lol Abe eat his pride to become an American dog so that he can change the constitution that the US impose on them to be become a sovereign nation, the re armament is the bargaining chip that he dangle to the American and using the Chinese threat as an excuse, BUT the US don't trust them, it's because of Pearl Harbor or maybe because their ASIAN.
 

Africablack

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well that came out of the blue! But agreed, Indonesia a far more useful member than Argentina at least. Saudi must be getting a sore arse sitting on the fence so long.

What BRICS+ now needs to do is to decide what it's actually for, and develop a concerted plan of action to achieve this.
First order of business should be finding an alternative payment system.
 
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