There will be no new BRICS joint currency for trade like some theorized. Everyone will trade in their local currencies and settle excess balances in gold instead (now the entire gold market is shifting East and rising btw).
Thanks to the rise of CBDCs, this won't be much different in terms of efficiency than the current USD system over time - you won't need a global trade currency like that anymore.
Also, thanks to the rise of digital currencies, it will be much easier to trade and bypass the US-led financial architecture and surveillance, the possibility of sanctions.
Previously it was much harder and costlier to build a financial architecture and ecosystems needed to trade in some currency outside of the USD, but now thanks to CBDCs it will be much easier.
Less reliance on intermediaries obviously means greater transaction speed, and you don't need to use US banks to convert everything into dollars in between so no geopolitical risk there as well.
What I think that the BRICS is doing, not creating a new trade currency (that's a smoking gun), but exploring technical aspects of this new CBDC blockchain system.
Also, if you follow gold markets, and some dates, it is obvious that they coordinated the current re-emergence of physical gold as a neutral reserve asset as well. Those are the main plays in terms of de-dollarization.
This is similar to the China-led mBridge project, with digital yuan, that Saudi Arabia joined in the BIS recently. It is called the BRICS Bridge multisided payment platform.
A bunch of other smaller local projects as well in the UAE and elsewhere, but this is still in its beginning stages. I think that this will eventually become the main global financial model going forward.
That's the thing, you just need to narrow the spread of difficulty of trading in the USD vs not trading it and many would jump ships over time, no matter if the US also bets full on digital currencies (although China is leading currently in this field).
You just need to blunt their advantage in terms of existing traditional banking ecosystems. They are a fully financially dominated economy after all, and have a huge tradition of global dollar use.
However, with the rise of pretty innovative and breakthrough technology now, those kinds of advantages won't matter, as with fewer banking employees, you could still do great local, secure, cross-border trading, thanks to local CBDCs of countries, of the same or even better quality.
Cross-border CBDC transactions
In a more recent move, Saudi Arabia has announced its involvement in Project mBridge, a project which explores a multi-central bank digital currency (CBDC) platform shared among participating central banks and commercial banks. It is built on distributed ledger technology (DLT) to enable instant cross-border payments settlements, and foreign-exchange transactions.
The project has more than 26 observing members including the South African Reserve Bank, which was greenlighted as a member this month.
The better known observing members of mBridge are those of the Bank of Israel, Bank of Namibia, Bank of France, Central Bank of Bahrain, Central Bank of Egypt, Central Bank of Jordan, European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the World Bank.
In tandem, the project steering committee has created a bespoke governance and legal framework, including a rulebook, tailored to match the platform's unique decentralised nature.
Evolution of Project mBridge
Project mBridge is the result of extensive collaboration starting in 2021 between the BIS Innovation Hub, the Bank of Thailand, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, the Digital Currency Institute of the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
In 2022, a pilot with real-value transactions was conducted. Since then, the mBridge project team has been exploring whether the prototype platform could evolve to become a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) – a stage now reached.
As it enters the MVP stage, Project mBridge is now inviting private-sector firms to propose new solutions and use cases that could help develop the platform and showcase all its potential.