Australian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Lethe · Jan 6, 2015

Not sure where to put this, but here is as good a place as any:

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Beijing and Tokyo have long been engaged in a bitter battle over ownership of a contested island chain, known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan.

Australia has a long-standing military alliance with Japan's close ally, the United States, which could arguably see it drawn into the dispute.

But a poll commissioned by the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney (UTS), has suggested that 71 per cent of Australians would prefer to remain neutral should a conflict arise.

"The poll confirms Australians overwhelmingly want their country to stay neutral," former foreign minister Bob Carr said, who is the director of the independent research think-tank.

When asked what Australia should do if armed conflict broke out between Japan, the US and China over the islands, only 15 per cent of respondents said they supported backing a Japan-US alliance.

Four per cent said Australia should back China and 9 per cent were unsure, the poll of more than 1,000 people found.

Should the US president call and ask the Prime Minister Tony Abbott to join in supporting Japan, 68 per cent said Australia should declare itself neutral and not make a military contribution.

Of course the Australian government, like most 'democracies', has a vaunted tradition of not giving a toss what the public thinks on foreign policy.

Jeff Head said:
With these commitments, the F-35s being purchased, the Canberras coming online, the Holbarts building, the upgrades to the Anzacs, and other programs, the Australian defense is beginning to make up for ground lost under the prior administration.

Umm, all of those projects predate the current Liberal government. They've increased funding and rubber-stamped pending deals, but that's about it. As for forecasts of further budget increases for the ADF, I would wait and see. Political and budgetary realities have a way of intruding on such promises, particularly when -- in contrast to everything else clamouring for part of the budgetary pie -- there is no significant public constituency behind it.

Brumby · Jan 6, 2015

Lethe said:
Not sure where to put this, but here is as good a place as any:
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:

Of course the Australian government, like most 'democracies', has a vaunted tradition of not giving a toss what the public thinks on foreign policy.

Do you have some form of empirical data to support that assertion?

Jeff Head · Jan 6, 2015

Brumby said:
Do you have some form of empirical data to support that assertion?

He quoted a poll conducted by the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney (UTS). Which says it "suggestds," that 71% wanted to stay neutral. The word "suggests," is suspect IMHO.

It goes on to say:

Artice said:
"The poll confirms Australians overwhelmingly want their country to stay neutral," former foreign minister Bob Carr said, who is the director of the independent research think-tank.

When asked what Australia should do if armed conflict broke out between Japan, the US and China over the islands, only 15 per cent of respondents said they supported backing a Japan-US alliance.

Four per cent said Australia should back China and 9 per cent were unsure, the poll of more than 1,000 people found.

But let me say this about that link/quote.

So, of 1000 people asked, 15% percent said they would back the US/Japan, 9% were unsure who to back, and 4% said they should back China. It asserts that 71% said to stay neutral.

I personally would like to read the wording of the poll. When you have the former foreign minister being the director of the "think tank," that is also suspect. You can word a poll to get almost any answer you desire, and then postulate that what you were looking for is precisely what the poll says. But the devil is in the details.

I cannot believe that the Australians, who have been among the closest allies to the US, would reject backing the US in such a conflict.

Air Force Brat · Jan 6, 2015

Jeff Head said:
He quoted a poll conducted by the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney (UTS). Which says it "suggestds," that 71% wanted to stay neutral. The word "suggests," is suspect IMHO.

It goes on to say:

But let me say this about that link/quote.

So, of 1000 people asked, 15% percent said they would back the US/Japan, 9% were unsure who to back, and 4% said they should back China. It asserts that 71% said to stay neutral.

I personally would like to read the wording of the poll. When you have the former foreign minister being the director of the "think tank," that is also suspect. You can word a poll to get almost any answer you desire, and then postulate that what you were looking for is precisely what the poll says. But the devil is in the details.

I cannot believe that the Australians, who have been among the closest allies to the US, would reject backing the US in such a conflict.

Exactly, we'd prefer to remain "neutral" as well, in this brave new world anybody looking for trouble would be ignorant, do you really think most Americans would be wanting the US to jump into a China/Japan conflict, uh no, no public support for any of the hard work of "freedom", so why would we be surprised if Australians would "prefer" not to get involved???? For that matter I doubt the Japanese or Australians would be wanting to jump in to a conflict between the US and ?????? name our opponent???? So there you are, on the other hand, if our allies need us, we will be there---period!

Brumby · Jan 6, 2015

Jeff Head said:
He quoted a poll conducted by the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney (UTS). Which says it "suggests," that 71% wanted to stay neutral. The word "suggests," is suspect IMHO.

If you read my comments I was not referring to the poll but the assertion that :

Lethe said:
Of course the Australian government, like most 'democracies', has a vaunted tradition of not giving a toss what the public thinks on foreign policy.

The poster was making a leap from one poll to the idea that democratic government in making foreign policy generally ignore or discount the public's leaning or mandate.

Jeff Head said:
So, of 1000 people asked, 15% percent said they would back the US/Japan, 9% were unsure who to back, and 4% said they should back China. It asserts that 71% said to stay neutral.

I personally would like to read the wording of the poll. When you have the former foreign minister being the director of the "think tank," that is also suspect. You can word a poll to get almost any answer you desire, and then postulate that what you were looking for is precisely what the poll says. But the devil is in the details.

I cannot believe that the Australians, who have been among the closest allies to the US, would reject backing the US in such a conflict.

Since you brought up the nature of the poll, the following should be noted :

(i) The poll was conducted by the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney (UTS). The name of the body would rather suggest a less than neutral view of affairs.
(ii) We don't know the content of the question and more importantly the targeted sample because they can skew the results. However I can tell you that the UTS has a very high Chinese student population in terms of student population mix, if not the highest in terms of country of origin. If the poll was conducted within the University campus I would not be surprised by the results.

Brumby · Jan 6, 2015

Air Force Brat said:
Exactly, we'd prefer to remain "neutral" as well, in this brave new world anybody looking for trouble would be ignorant, do you really think most Americans would be wanting the US to jump into a China/Japan conflict, uh no, no public support for any of the hard work of "freedom", so why would we be surprised if Australians would "prefer" not to get involved???? For that matter I doubt the Japanese or Australians would be wanting to jump in to a conflict between the US and ?????? name our opponent???? So there you are, on the other hand, if our allies need us, we will be there---period!

I think it is problematic to draw conclusions from this poll because they do not reflect the complexities of politics and the broad strategic nature of national defence. I would venture to say the general public has very little interest or knowledge of geopolitical issues. However it should be noted that Australia has stepped up and fought by the side of the US in every major conflict since WW1 and that includes, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq 1 & 2 and now the conflict with ISIL. The main reason I see is because we share the core common values in addressing world affairs.

Air Force Brat · Jan 6, 2015

Brumby said:
I think it is problematic to draw conclusions from this poll because they do not reflect the complexities of politics and the broad strategic nature of national defence. I would venture to say the general public has very little interest or knowledge of geopolitical issues. However it should be noted that Australia has stepped up and fought by the side of the US in every major conflict since WW1 and that includes, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq 1 & 2 and now the conflict with ISIL. The main reason I see is because we share the core common values in addressing world affairs.

Exactly, and very well spoken, I suspected that the poll was conducted by and among academia, a rather cloistered community, who feel very well informed, maybe even superior, they tend to be very anti military, and don't mind the guv keeping an eye on the "unwashed masses"??? The tend to "feel" that they could solve problems with-out resorting to???? "violence"????? oh my?????

Lethe · Jan 6, 2015

Brumby said:
I think it is problematic to draw conclusions from this poll because they do not reflect the complexities of politics and the broad strategic nature of national defence.

In other words, you go further than my assertion that public wishes are discounted in foreign affairs to the idea that they should be discounted. An edifying illustration of just how committed to democracy some folks are.

Jeff Head said:
I cannot believe that the Australians, who have been among the closest allies to the US, would reject backing the US in such a conflict.

The Australian people are far more sensible -- and innocent -- than their government. Whereas the government periodically sacrifices Australian lives and treasure on the altar to the United States so that (it is hoped) one day the Americans might return the favour, the Australian people have no such concern, and are guided only by the simple realisation that we have no interest in who control various bits of rock in the South China Sea, and a compelling interest in avoiding being caught in the crossfire of a great power conflict.

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are details of the questions asked and responses, broken down by state, income, occupation, political affiliation, etc.I am proud to note that my own state (SA) is the most sensible, with 80% supporting Australian neutrality in a China vs. Japan conflict.

Lethe · Jan 6, 2015

Air Force Brat said:
Exactly, and very well spoken, I suspected that the poll was conducted by and among academia, a rather cloistered community, who feel very well informed, maybe even superior, they tend to be very anti military, and don't mind the guv keeping an eye on the "unwashed masses"??? The tend to "feel" that they could solve problems with-out resorting to???? "violence"????? oh my?????

As you can see from the poll details linked above, neutrality sentiment is strongest amongst those with vocational or no tertiary education. Further, it is stronger among non-students than students, older than younger Australians, and rural Australians than city-dwellers. Your hypothesis has been comprehensively disproven.

Air Force Brat · Jan 6, 2015

Lethe said:
As you can see from the poll details linked above, neutrality sentiment is strongest amongst those with vocational or no tertiary education. Further, it is stronger among non-students than students, older than younger Australians, and rural Australians than city-dwellers. Your hypothesis has been comprehensively disproven.

Yeah??? sure ya did, in fact I've just never been so comprehensively disproven,,,, well I think I did say that Americans really don't want to get involved either ace,,,, but if Aus ever gets overrun by a (fill in the blank) hoard, US will be there to help you gentle, hyper intelligent souls to pick up the pieces, and your welcome, we'll do it just because we love y'all!

Australian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Lethe

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Brumby

Major

Jeff Head

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Air Force Brat

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Brumby

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Brumby

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Air Force Brat

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Lethe

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Lethe

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Air Force Brat

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