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War games in the South China Sea
In fact, we may be well past the use-by date for such distractions. Earlier this week US Republican Senator John McCain visited Australia and urged the government to join America in challenging Chinese claims to islands in the South China Sea.

There's a huge difference between joining patrols through contested waters in the South China Sea and armed conflict involving superpowers, and possibly Australia, over the same issue. But any prudent defence force would ensure it was combat ready before making such a commitment.

The US Trump administration's decision in May to carry out its first freedom of navigation exercise, sailing within 12 nautical miles of the Chinese-occupied Mischief Reef in the South China Sea, increased tension in the region. It will dominate Friday's Asian defence summit in Singapore – the Shangri-La Dialogue – where Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will deliver the keynote address. Among other speechmakers will be US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis.

For Australia the issue is whether to commit to sailing within the 12-nautical-mile territorial zone around Chinese-claimed reefs which have been rapidly converted into virtual, stationary aircraft carriers, complete with landing strips, aircraft hangars and assorted weaponry.

Stuck in dry dock
Australian defence officials and commentators are divided over what to do, but, whatever one's view, an inhibiting factor is lack of local preparedness.

One of the Royal Australian Navy's largest warships, HMAS Adelaide, has been dry-docked as naval engineers scramble to fix engine problems with the $1.5 billion vessel. As this article goes to press, it is unknown how long it will take to repair the Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) vessel, which was commissioned only 18 months ago.

HMAS Adelaide's sister ship, HMAS Canberra, is also out of action and is berthed at Sydney's Garden Island Naval base. Reports first emerged more than two months ago that both ships had been sent to Garden Island after problems were identified with their propulsion systems.

At the very least, the hobbling of two frontline Australian Navy vessels crimps our possible involvement in joint allied patrols in the South China Sea. McCain, who is chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Committee and a one-time Republican Party presidential candidate, said in Sydney this week the US and allies like Australia "should be doing joint military exercises" in the region.

Short term, the problem may be frontline stricken Australian Navy ships, a la the Adelaide and the Canberra. Longer term, a 35-year plus projected turnaround time in the subs' project is a significant limitation.

The five characteristics
Whatever the final release date, the delay also prompts a question about the role of submarines. According to conventional defence doctrine, submarines have five significant operational characteristics – stealth, endurance, freedom of movement, flexibility and lethality.

In times of peace they also contribute to prevention of conflict, naval diplomacy and offshore, lower-level police-style tasks.

Australia has a chequered submarine history and spent much of the 1950s and 1960s without subs. Delivery of six Oberon class subs coincided with the Whitlam Labor government in the 1970s.

The impressive operational record of the Oberon subs meant they played a significant, though largely undocumented, role in cold war monitoring. This included shadowing Soviet nuclear subs in the northern Pacific off the port of Vladivostok, and even shadowing Chinese vessels around Shanghai.

Later the Oberons were replaced with the Collins-class subs, which were based on a Swedish design. Australian Defence officials began working on a replacement for the troubled Collins class as far back as 2003, or four years before the defeat of the Howard government.

In the too-hard basket
During the six years of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Labor governments, the matter was effectively dispatched to the too hard-basket. In the almost two years of the Abbott-led Liberal government that followed, the Japanese Soryu-class sub proposal received strong prime ministerial backing prior to any formal bid process being undertaken.

It was not until late 2016, or one year into the Malcolm Turnbull-led government, that the venerable and impressive French ship and submarine builder, DCNS, stunned competitors and observers to emerge with the contract.

But in what has been a 13-year contract preparation, review, bidding and awarding process, there are still no firm prices, only estimates about the final completion dollar numbers.

Professor White says DCNS is an impressive military contractor, renowned for building "very good subs". According to the Pacific Defence Reporter, members of its highly skilled, highly motivated workforce "are bound together for a common goal and sustained over time".

'They'll screw us if they can'
A senior DCNS executive, Michel Accary, told a recent conference on submarines hosted by ASPI that "all these players must be able to exchange information and take decisions rapidly and efficiently at the right level during the detailed design, building, setting to work and test process".

However, Hugh White points out that "we still don't have any price on these subs. They're all just estimates. They'll come to us and say 'here's the design and here's the price' and they have us over a barrel. I can't fathom how the Commonwealth can think this is a prudent practice."

Instead, White says, the government should have introduced a competitive design process, technically known as a "Funded Competitive Project Definition Study".

According to the current contract, DCNS is in charge of the design of the 12 new subs, and will be heavily involved in the building process, although the actual construction work will be based at the government-owned Australian Submarine Corporation (ASC) shipyards in South Australia, and not in the DCNS complex at Cherbourg, on France's western Atlantic seaboard.

Under a competitive design structure, White says the government would impose "huge competing pressure on both players". However, under the current structure, "it's pumpkins to peanuts they'll screw us if they can."

Time – about 35 years and counting – will tell.

Turnbull government's submarine order timeline

• April 26, 2016 – announced that 12 future submarines will be built at Osborne in South Australia.
• September 30, 2016 – announced the next significant step in the building of Australia's future submarines with the signing of the contract between the government and DCNS to commence the design phase of the program.
• September 30, 2016 – announced that Lockheed Martin Australia has been selected as the preferred combat system integrator for Australia's future submarine program.
• October 11, 2016 – Government announced separation of ASC into three individual government-owned companies to support the key capabilities of shipbuilding, submarine sustainment and infrastructure.
• December 20, 2016 – signed the inter-governmental agreement with France to build Australia's future submarine fleet.

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Defence has confirmed that it is considering the acquisition of “up to seven” Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton air vehicles, despite seeking expressions of interest for the delivery of facilities to support only “up to six” aircraft.

While the Integrated Investment Program stated that Defence would acquire precisely seven of the remotely piloted aircraft from the early 2020s, it is understood that a specific number is yet to be determined.

“Delivery of the Triton capability is constrained by the number of ground-based mission control systems, operated by remote pilots and sensor operators, rather than the number of Triton [air vehicles],” a Defence spokesperson told Australian Defence Business Review.

“Defence continues to analyse information received from the US Navy to determine the most efficient and effective mix between Triton and mission control systems to deliver the capability effect sought by the Australian government.”

Meanwhile, the spokesperson stated that Defence intends to acquire and sustain the Triton unmanned aircraft system (UAS) capability through a cooperative project arrangement with the US Navy.

Acquisition approval will be sought from Government in 2017-18, the spokesperson added. Indeed, the AIR 7000 Phase 1B Multi-mission Unmanned Aircraft System project is listed as being in development for second pass approval consideration in 2017-18 in the Defence Portfolio Budget Statements 2017-18.

Defence sought expressions of interest on May 23 for the delivery of facilities and infrastructure at RAAF Base Edinburgh and RAAF Base Tindal to support the Triton acquisition.

The location of the facilities is expected to be finalised as part of the AIR 7000 Phase 1B approval in the second quarter of 2017, according to a document obtained through AusTender that provides details of the sustainment facilities to be constructed.

Confusingly, the document states that the procurement will be conducted through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, rather than a cooperative project arrangement.

The expression of interest process is due to close on June 20.

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In their first joint appearance abroad, America's top diplomat and its Pentagon chief offered public reassurances to a longstanding ally at odds with President Donald Trump's abandonment of the Paris climate agreement.

With Defense Secretary Jim Mattis at his side, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told a news conference Monday that Trump is interested in "perhaps a new construct of an agreement," signaling that Trump believes the climate change issue "is still important and that he wants to stay engaged on the issue."

"He's not walking away from it," Tillerson said. "He's simply walking away from what he felt was an agreement that did not serve the American people well."

Julie Bishop, the Australian foreign minister, deflected any suggestion of a loss of confidence in U.S. leadership, saying, "We have a similar world view, we have shared values and shared interests" in other areas.

Tillerson also took a swipe at China, criticizing what he called its militarization of disputed islets and reefs in the South China Sea and suggesting that Beijing has failed to persuade North Korea to ends it nuclear weapons program.

"China is a significant economic and trading power, and we desire a productive relationship," he said. "But we cannot allow China to use its economic power to buy its way out of other problems, whether it's militarizing islands in the South China Sea or failure to put appropriate pressure on North Korea. They must recognize that with a role as a growing economic and trading power come security responsibilities as well."

A reporter asked Tillerson to reconcile the administration's emphasis on strengthening alliances in Asia and elsewhere with what some perceive as isolationism in Trump's rejection of multilateral trade agreements, criticisms of NATO and abandonment of the Paris climate deal.

"That's why we're here," Tillerson said. "That's why we traveled here. That's why we engaged with our counterparts," adding, "So I hope the fact that we're here, demonstrates that it certainly is not this administration's view or intention to somehow put at arm's length the important partners and allies in the world."

Mattis called Australia "a beacon of hope for people and the world."

Even as the U.S. and Australian officials were meeting behind closed doors, news broke of a growing political rift among key American allies in the Persian Gulf.

Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all announced they would withdraw their diplomatic staff from Qatar over that country's support for Islamist groups and its relations with Iran. Qatar is home to a U.S. military base that is central to the coordination of its air campaigns in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

"I think what we're witnessing is a growing list of irritants in the region that have been there for some time, and obviously they have now bubbled up to level that countries decided they needed to take action in an effort to have those differences addressed," Tillerson said, noting that he had just heard news of this development. "We certainly would encourage the parties to sit down together and address these differences."

Tillerson said he did not believe this would have any impact on the fight against Islamic extremism.

Mattis was even more emphatic on the point.

"I am confident there will be no implications coming out of this diplomatic situation at all," Mattis said.

In earlier remarks at the start of their talks, Mattis pledged unity with longtime ally Australia in fighting Islamic extremists who seek to intimidate the West.

"We are united, as I said, in our resolve, even against an enemy that thinks by hurting us they can scare us," Mattis said. "Well, we don't scare."

The meeting, held annually, touched on a range of subjects including defeating the Islamic State, stabilizing Afghanistan and dealing with North Korea's nuclear threats.

Tillerson stressed the enduring U.S.-Australian alliance and said it will prevail in "this common fight we share against the most heinous of actions we've seen most recently in London yet again." He did not elaborate on the London attack.

Police say three men drove a van over London Bridge on Saturday and struck pedestrians before crashing the vehicle outside a pub. The attackers, wielding blades and knives, ran to a well-known fruit and vegetable market and there they stabbed people in several different restaurants. Seven people were killed and at least 48 were hospitalized. Police fired 50 bullets to stop the violence, killing the three attackers and wounding one member of the public.

In her opening remarks, Bishop said "countering terrorism" would be high on the meeting's agenda.

"The global terrorist threat is ever evolving, we've seen brutal attacks in a number of European cities, we've thwarted attacks here in Australia, and so we want to discuss with you, the links back into the Middle East, the role we're playing with you in Iraq and Syria and also Afghanistan," Bishop said. "We are united in our resolve to defeat ISIS, the Islamic State terrorist organization and its ilk."

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Jura said:

Australia's Barracuda submarines: too expensive and too little, too late

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Lethe said:

crap.

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Lethe said:

I was referring to the content of the article, not you.

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