I saw a local TV segment this evening about the challenges we have had maintaining and operating the
Collins-class submarine fleet. It strikes me that most of what is discussed is fairly unremarkable in and of itself. It is only when those issues are juxtaposed against the timelines, costs and challenges of the AUKUS nuclear submarine enterprise that things begin to look alarming. There was much talk about the age of the
Collins-class boats, which were commissioned 1996-2003. By way of comparison,
two-thirds of America's nuclear submarines are as old or older than our submarines. The difference is that America is working up to building >2 submarines per year, while our plan for the next fifteen years is to hope that the Americans ultimately choose to give us three of their submarines as they have pinky promised. The strategic insouciance of this enterprise truly beggars belief.
For what little it's worth, here's my prediction as to how this is going to unfold as we enter the 2030s:
(1) Australia's acquisition of two second-hand
Virginia-class submarines is pushed back or cancelled owing to a combination of lack of enthusiasm in Washington to transfer them and our lack of readiness to receive and operate them.
(2) The AUKUS nuclear submarine program is ultimately thrown in the bin and a new conventional program is pursued with local shipbuilding.
(3) A limited number of
Virginia-class submarines (say, four) are eventually acquired from the American production line at ruinous expense and maintained at low readiness, partly to make the Americans happy and partly just to say that we did it.
Corporate boardrooms in Washington and London rejoice at their good fortune, politicians and consultants in Canberra retire comfortably. Everybody wins except for the Australian taxpayer and Australia's national security.
TL;DR: The problem isn't
Collins, the problem is that we under-resourced those submarines for decades and are now asking them to serve for an additional 10-15 years longer than originally intended while simultaneously embarking on a project with exponentially greater challenges, risks and costs.
The NH-90 has the problems you would find in any new helicopter program. Most of it is due to lack of support, parts, and maintenance. Most of the countries which bought them cheapened out on the support package, then they are surprised not enough parts are produced to keep them operational. The UK had the same problem with the Eurofighter. This was only solved after they made the builders responsible for maintenance and gave them adequate funding so there would be a spare parts supply.
Eurofighter and NH-90 both illustrate the basic weaknesses of multinational European procurement programs. Multiple small nations each fighting for workshare while minimizing their own development contributions and acquisitions. You don't have to be in Washington's pocket to appreciate mature platforms with robust industrial support chains.