It is questionable if more submarines are the right choice for the future. What would they possibly change in the strategic equation? Japan's weakness lies entirely in its geography and economy. It's a case of Taiwan - just on a larger scale. Japan can double or even triple their navy and it won't matter.
I've seen comparisons between Japan and Britain but Britain's rise in the 19th century happened on the back of unprecedented industrial and economic growth. Britain in 19th century was a growing economic power and it improved its position globally in the same way that America did in the 20th century also on the back of rapid economic growth. Japan is a declining economic power past its historical peak.
As the balance of power in western Pacific shifts Japanese security interest will follow the economic shift toward China. Japan is not a meaningful adversary for China because that has to come from natural economic potential. If Japan retains its alignment with the US then a more likely outcome is a breakup of the nominal alliance between Japan and Korea which exists under their vassalage to Washington. Korea will naturally shift toward China and Japan may choose an adversarial stance against Korea as these two occupy the same political, economic and military space. Korea would become a proxy tool for China and Japan a proxy tool for America.
Yes
In the 8 year period from 2011-2019, China added approximately $10 Trillion in economic output, which is the equivalent of 2 Japans. As per the World Bank
If China grows by an average of 6% per year for the next 10 years, China would add $22 Trillion in economic output
That is the economic equivalent of 4 Japans or another USA.
Furthermore the key to any long-term strategy against China is Russia. As long as Russia remains neutral toward China the shift in the balance of power toward China will continue. The only thing that can stop it is a change in geopolitical attitude in Moscow which at this moment doesn't seem likely. It may happen in the 30s as China's economic expansion continues but I doubt it would be openly adversarial as the preferred partners for Moscow in balancing Chinese influence are the European and west Asian countries, not America. If America weakens sufficiently that Russia can renegotiate its relationship with Europe it might also choose to renegotiate its relationship with Japan. This would lead to an Orwellian scenario of Eastasia vs Eurasia vs Oceania which matches resource producers with capital producers in a manner that is stable in the long term and paradoxically beneficial to everyone as it would be sustainable. The current situation is precarious because American hegemony is not sustainable. It therefore has natural dynamic toward correction which America will attempt to prevent through war.
Russia is locked in a battle over Ukraine, which is only 450km from Moscow and the rest of the core Russian motherland (the Rodina)
That distance could be crossed in a single battle. Plus an extension of the EU to Russia's border would further turn Russia into a resource appendage dependent on the EU. And remember the EU is economically 10x larger than Russia
So I don't see how Ukraine can be resolved.
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