Ask anything Thread

[Tomboy]

I wouldn't be so sure about never again. As China gets richer and technologically advanced, there will be a huge influx of immigrants coming from all over the world. Whatever role US plays now as the beacon of Prosperity, China will slowly takeover that role. I expect China to be flocked with immigrants initially from SEA countries but then other places like (India!), LatAm, Africa and so forth.

Yes, its hard to imagine that now cause China is a 13K GDP per capita economy. But in 10 years it will be 30K and then influx of immigrants will start.

There is no way China is going to reach 30K USD GDP per capita in the next 10 years. For that to happen China's economy will need to grow by at least 8.47432625632 percent per year. At 5 percent, China will reach 30K by the 2040s that is assuming they can keep up the 5 percent per year. Until China becomes as developed as western countries overall(30K per capita is still rather poor compared to the ~50K per capita for EU overall and 90K for US currently and they are of course expected to grow in the next 20 years as well) and global reputation of China increases massively, I find it hard for China to have similar mass immigration like the US had in the 20th century.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

There is no way China is going to reach 30K USD GDP per capita in the next 10 years. For that to happen China's economy will need to grow by at least 8.47432625632 percent per year. At 5 percent, China will reach 30K by the 2040s that is assuming they can keep up the 5 percent per year.

You are ignoring inflation. Nominal GDP Growth = Real Growth + Inflation. Typical economies with 3% inflation and 5% growth will have 8% nominal growth.

Unfortunately yes, China has deflation right now instead of inflation. But that is unusual and will probably change soon. You could even have 4-5% inflation in an hot economy.

China grew at 10% in the past in real terms but grew at 15-20% in nominal terms due to inflation during the hot period of 2000-2008.

So, with 2-3% inflation and 5% real growth China can achieve 30k in 10-12 years.

Finally, there is also Yuan exchange rate. If Yuan appreciates, then China can get to 30k even faster.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Until China becomes as developed as western countries overall(30K per capita is still rather poor compared to the ~50K per capita for EU overall and 90K for US currently and they are of course expected to grow in the next 20 years as well) and global reputation of China increases massively, I find it hard for China to have similar mass immigration like the US had in the 20th century.

If Chinese companies continue to take market share from US and EU countries, do you think these countries can keep their current GDP per capita?

Europe, Japan, South Korea all pretty much stagnant in the last 10 years. Japan actually dropped massively in GDP per capita. I would argue all of this is happening due to China and other global south countries slowly taking away market share from the rich countries.

US has kept growing by dominating software/Internet tech but China is also competing in that field. Tiktok, Shein and more will slowly take away market Share from US tech companies.

I expect rich countries to become poorer because of China.

 

[Inque]

And realistically, China's prosperity and overall world position isn't based on its population any more. It's more about industrial scale, technology, and the government and social contract. As long as these persist, then China should still be in a superpower position.

Its industrial scale is part of it, especially with increasing levels of automation, but in terms of being a consumer base and innovation, population and median age absolutely matter. Military power, too. More people = more everything (consumers, innovators, soldiers, etc). Population alone doesn't guarantee any of the above, but population does enable it.

 

[no_name]

Its industrial scale is part of it, especially with increasing levels of automation, but in terms of being a consumer base and innovation, population and median age absolutely matter. Military power, too. More people = more everything (consumers, innovators, soldiers, etc). Population alone doesn't guarantee any of the above, but population does enable it.

There's a way for China to increase it's birthrate again, but I don't think it's a way we want to see in this day and age. Think about how European population exploded during the colonial age.

China is probably the most responsible nation in the world right now.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

I wouldn't be so sure about never again. As China gets richer and technologically advanced, there will be a huge influx of immigrants coming from all over the world. Whatever role US plays now as the beacon of Prosperity, China will slowly takeover that role. I expect China to be flocked with immigrants initially from SEA countries but then other places like (India!), LatAm, Africa and so forth.

Yes, its hard to imagine that now cause China is a 13K GDP per capita economy. But in 10 years it will be 30K and then influx of immigrants will start.

I seriously doubt that China would want to repeat the mistakes of Europe and, to a lesser extent, the US. The fact of the matter is that China is overpopulated. While a sharp decline in TFR should be avoided to prevent too heavily inverted of a population pyramid, an ideal long-term stable population for China is somewhere around 800M. Even ignoring the impact of increased automation and advances in AI, there is never going to be a shortage of labor in China. The job market in all sectors is extremely competitive China: it would be unthinkable to allow mass immigration when the domestic population already faces so much competition for jobs.

More people = more everything (consumers, innovators, soldiers, etc). Population alone doesn't guarantee any of the above, but population does enable it.

More people = more food consumption, energy consumption, resource consumption, jobs required, social services required, infrastructure required. Resources are finite, more people = much more resources required or less resources available per person.

 

[Inque]

More people = more food consumption, energy consumption, resource consumption, jobs required, social services required, infrastructure required. Resources are finite, more people = much more resources required or less resources available per person.

Resource consumption and living space are not serious issues for China right now. It currently sustains 1.4 billion people.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Resource consumption and living space are not serious issues for China right now. It currently sustains 1.4 billion people.

Sure it does, but not easily though.

A lot of pressure would be reduced if the pop went from 1.4 to say around 1.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Sure it does, but not easily though.

A lot of pressure would be reduced if the pop went from 1.4 to say around 1.

Population is China's power, why would they give it up? Material conditions will be improved with better economy and technology. Massive factory farms, renewable energy already provide enough food and energy. China will also get richer and slowly become the center of the world in terms of tech, logistics and eventually even finance.

China is facing shortage of jobs now but as they get richer they will face a shortage of labour. That's when you will see immigrants start to arrive.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Population is China's power, why would they give it up? Material conditions will be improved with better economy and technology. Massive factory farms, renewable energy already provide enough food and energy. China will also get richer and slowly become the center of the world in terms of tech, logistics and eventually even finance.

China is facing shortage of jobs now but as they get richer they will face a shortage of labour. That's when you will see immigrants start to arrive.

Lol no, they definitely will not face shortage of labour, especially with how much automatiom is ongoing.

Also, going down to 1 billion really isn't all that bad, especially if it can somewhat sustained.