by the anglo logic with NGAD, if deepseek v3 is what CCP allows to be shown to the world, just imagine what they actually have in secret.
does anyone really believe China would pin its AGI hopes solely on quant guys who only have 2000 gimped GPUs and a 5 mil training budget?
I think it's important to get a practical definition of AGI first: a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans
on most economically valuable (ie. useful) tasks. What a lot of techbros and laypeople are thinking fall more into the category of
ASI.
With that in mind, several firms (incl. chinese) have actually built tools internally that scale, not quite infinitely, but close enough and they seem to have reached above human performance on most tasks - unfortunately at the cost of being much more expensive than hiring a few thousand humans to do it.
I talked to some folks who did work around this last year and the consensus seems to be there is no limit to how smart you could get a swarm of agents using different base models at the bottom end, if you don't mind burning through GPU cycles . At the time even this was a completely open question. It's still the case that no one has build an interactive system that _really_ scales - even the startups and off the record conversations I've had with people in these companies say that they are still using Python across a single data center.
IMO AGI the way it is defined above is now no longer a dream but a question of if we want to:
1). Start building nuclear power plants like it's 1950
2). Wait and hope that Moore's law keeps applying to GPUs until the cost of something like o3 drops to something affordable
Broader AI community haven't fully understood potential of agent swarms but top firms are deep into it already, and yes, some chinese researchers are well aware of it. Future breakthroughs such as getting AI compute to consume 1% of the energy it does today would be extremely significant.