Artificial Intelligence thread

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Open AI isnt training new models, o3 is just a larger o1 with more inference time compute thrown into it

It cost them more in compute cost to run the benchmark than they got out of winning the million dollar prize money

The use case for o3 will be narrow, think research institutions or strategic planning for C levels execs

Hence they were thinking about a $2000 month subscription... and at high end I could see them charging that much per query for the super important use cases

You showed that even the paid subscription couldn't do the example on their own ad.

2k per month for research that you can't trust is really bad.
 

9dashline

Captain
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Closed AI releases expensive frontier models, then they also release cheaper/lower-capability models for public use, then open source models soon hit which plunge the cost with capabilities close to or equal to the closed AI frontier models optimised for public use

I estimate that Alibaba will soonish (in a few months max) come up with a new release

Test time compute is the new paradigm and I expect that significant resources this year will go on how to optimize planning and solution finding so that they can lower compute requirements.


Non-compete agreements should imo be made illegal, but yeah a shame to see this specific poaching. I like Alibaba's approach on AI
Yup from the horses mouths
 

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Jiang ZeminFanboy

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It is reported that ByteDance poached the technical director of Alibaba Tongyi Model with an 8-digit annual salary. Alibaba has previously applied for arbitration on the non-compete agreement

Sina Technology News December 6, noon news, some media reported that ByteDance poached Zhou Chang, the former technical director of Ali Tongyi Big Model, with a 4-2 job level and an 8-digit annual salary package. As of press time, ByteDance and Ali have not responded.

Public information shows that Zhou Chang joined Ali in 2017 and served as the technical director of Ali Tongyi Big Model. After Zhou Chang resigned in July this year, some media reported that Zhou Chang had joined ByteDance in August to engage in AI big model-related work. In November this year, Alibaba decided to apply for arbitration for the news that "Zhou Chang, a former employee of Tongyi Big Model, violated the non-compete agreement", which was also confirmed by Ali insiders.

According to the first financial report, "It's not just Zhou Chang who came to ByteDance, more than a dozen people in his team also jumped ship." ByteDance offered Zhou Chang a contract that was almost impossible to refuse: a 4-2 job level and an 8-digit annual salary package, which is about two levels higher and several times the salary according to Ali's job level system. ByteDance also gave the original team members who came with him job levels of 4-1 and 3-2 (equivalent to Alibaba's P10 and P9).
And have they released sth like Kling or they just basing their whole strategy on Douyin? For now, for me Bytedance is another Lenovo. Until they show sth good I won't keep my faith in one kneel Zhang's company.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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A basic idea in philosophy: something can be necessary but not sufficient. As in: Passing ARC may be necessary but certainly not sufficient for AGI. (Chollet was super clear about this.)

A basic idea in cognitive science and engineering: a mechanism can be effective in some domain, and not others. As in O3 may work for problems where massive data augmentation is possible, but not in others where it’s not.

Most commentary has ignored one or both of these ideas.

Even setting aside the 1000x costs, not one person outside of OpenAI has evaluated o3’s robustness across different types of problems.

If it were truly robust across all or even most problems, they would have called it GPT-5.

The fact that they didn’t is .

An illuminating insight coming from Gary Marcus.

I am a firm believer in Artificial Intelligence and that it'll definitely provided added value as A TOOL TO AUGMENT Human beings to our respective professions and bring about huge productivity dividends as a result.

What I don't buy until convinced otherwise that AGI is closed to being achieve or is just around the corner. People must be underestimating human capacity and overestimating humanity's own creativity and for penchant to OVERHYPE A PRODUCT for the purpose of MONETIZATION.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
A basic idea in philosophy: something can be necessary but not sufficient. As in: Passing ARC may be necessary but certainly not sufficient for AGI. (Chollet was super clear about this.)

A basic idea in cognitive science and engineering: a mechanism can be effective in some domain, and not others. As in O3 may work for problems where massive data augmentation is possible, but not in others where it’s not.

Most commentary has ignored one or both of these ideas.

Even setting aside the 1000x costs, not one person outside of OpenAI has evaluated o3’s robustness across different types of problems.

If it were truly robust across all or even most problems, they would have called it GPT-5.

The fact that they didn’t is .

An illuminating insight coming from Gary Marcus.

I am a firm believer in Artificial Intelligence and that it'll definitely provided added value as A TOOL TO AUGMENT Human beings to our respective professions and bring about huge productivity dividends as a result.

What I don't buy until convinced otherwise that AGI is closed to being achieve or is just around the corner. People must be underestimating human capacity and overestimating humanity's own creativity and for penchant to OVERHYPE A PRODUCT for the purpose of MONETIZATION.
OAI is now rumor to think about a $20000/mo sub for enterprise use of o3 pro etc
 

tonyget

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And have they released sth like Kling or they just basing their whole strategy on Douyin? For now, for me Bytedance is another Lenovo. Until they show sth good I won't keep my faith in one kneel Zhang's company.

Bytedance's "doubao" AI app ranks first in China and second in the world in terms of active users,people in China love it

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fatzergling

Junior Member
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OpenAI is cooking some good stuff
View attachment 141223



Caveats
They singlehandedly made symbolic program synthesis mainstream!
None of the models have a score of 100. The parameter is a test hard for AI but easy for humans. Since these tests still exist, it means it is closer to impossible so far. Only once 100% is reached do we even start talking true cost effectiveness.

Software also isn't like physical production. A fab that puts $1B into a failed 5 nm pilot plant can reuse the tools for a known 7 nm process with only depreciation loss. At worst the losses can be recouped by liquidating the assets. Spend $1B on training a model that's shit or unprofitable, that money is gone.

I mean this really looks to me like early steam age guys trying to make a robot God with a steam engine and mechanical computer brain rather than build a train.
o1, o3 are not new AI models. They are AI systems that use LLM's in a loop to extract answers. These experiments show it is possible to extract answers via LLM-guided search, at a great monetary cost.

Currently this search mechanism is wildly inefficient: we need a 100x reduction in search time before even thinking about replacing humans with these systems.

One reason why this could be is the emphasis on natural language as the system language. The system o3 uses looks a bit like this.

LLM generator --> natural language statements --> LLM "interpreter" --> correctness.

While sufficient to solve many reasoning tasks, it is unrobust and inefficient. For such methods to become economically viable, we would need a breakthrough in "natural language interpreters."

My personal opinion is that AI has caused a "crowding out" effect by starving investment into other areas of computer science. There are strengths and weaknesses to LLM-based techniques but betting all investment into LLM's is a foolish allocation of money. Even o3 shows that "pure" LLM prompting is not sufficient, requiring augmentation using search.
 
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tphuang

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Put my thoughts on here

basically as it stands, o3 is completely unusable even if cost comes down to $10 per prompt.

and it’s only solving the hard problems because it got people that can solve them to first train the models. Well, can it get model to train against every menial task it will be expected to automate away?
 

Overbom

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Currently this search mechanism is wildly inefficient: we need a 100x reduction in search time before even thinking about replacing humans with these systems.

One reason why this could be is the emphasis on natural language as the system language. The system o3 uses looks a bit like this.

LLM generator --> natural language statements --> LLM "interpreter" --> correctness.
Natural Language is wildly inefficient for computer systems reasoning

Have a look at this new Meta paper. I think that fundamentally this is the way forward, with the disadvantage that the AI systems will become a complete black box for humans

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