I dont think any one can save them in that region when Saudis bring swords to Baku embassy event and than put that exodus on front page of there news.
Armenia vs Azerbaijan (ongoing)
- Thread starter ohan_qwe
- Start date
I dont think any one can save them in that region when Saudis bring swords to Baku embassy event and than put that exodus on front page of there news.
Armenia conducted widespread ethnic cleansing during the 1990s. I don't think there are "good" or "bad" guys here. Both sides tried to purge the other and Armenia nearly succeeded. Until they didn't. Geopolitics isn't a morality play.
Armenia's closest friend is the Islamic republic of Iran but the Armenians are obsessed with getting closer to the West, so they don't want to align with Iran for optics reasons. I can't say I have much sympathy for such people when they get their comeuppance.
Wait aren't the Armenians the ones always complaining about how nobody gives them any special sympathy points for the Armenian massacre from WW1 done by the Turks?
And they do the same now 100 years later? Lol what a buncha hypocrisy!
I'm not well-versed in this subject since I kinda just don't really care that much about 2 rather minor countries who are non-significant factions on the global scale, but just what the hell is the TL
R of this war? Why are they even at it?
If they're calling their own people leaving the place by their free will as 'genocide' i'd have to double check on their 100 year old claims.Wait aren't the Armenians the ones always complaining about how nobody gives them any special sympathy points for the Armenian massacre from WW1 done by the Turks?
And they do the same now 100 years later? Lol what a buncha hypocrisy!
I'm not well-versed in this subject since I kinda just don't really care that much about 2 rather minor countries who are non-significant factions on the global scale, but just what the hell is the TL
Azerbaijan offered full constitutional rights and offered to negotiate additional rights which have been rejected. Rebelling against your own state and then willfully leaving peacefully and not being prosecuted for said rebellion is not ethnic cleansing, it's clemency.
For some reason tl;Dr showed up as an emoji face in my last message, but ya what's the TL;Dr? I'm so completely confused...why are they even fighting?? I didn't even know that Armenia and Azerbaijan had any sort of problems with each other?
The conflict started after the collapse of the USSR. In the Nagorno region a large chunk of the population was of Armenian ethnicity, but found themselves to be part of Azerbaijan, because they were located in the Azerbaijanian SSR. Back in the USSR this wasn't as much of a problem since both SSRs were part of the same nation. Well, a military conflict ensued, and Nagorno gained de facto independence from Azerbaijan. But now that Azerbaijan has plenty of oil and gas money, plus support from Turkey and Israel, they basically rebuilt their army and conquered Nagorno region. Some also claim the Azeris seek to also hold the small corridor that Armenia owns that connects it to Iran, and connect the split apart regions of Western and Eastern Azerbaijan. Of course Iran isn't interested in neither Israel gaining more influence in the region, nor in a possible Azeri splinter movement inside Iran proper as part of some Greater Azerbaijan project, since Iran has a lot of citizens of Azeri descent, so you get to the current situation.
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I'm posting to note and record an interesting development.
This is the map of incursions into Armenia during the expulsions from Nagorno-Karabakh
According to Armenian government Azerbaijani forces extended their control. There is no independent confirmation yet and may be just a claim by Yerevan but it is likely that many people from left the area fearing such move and that left no witnesses. Despite the apparent ubiquity of information this situation was not public knowledge, or at least widespread public knowledge and one can only wonder why more hasn't been done to spread awareness. Likely if it's true then the Armenian government is afraid of losing further support as evidence of weakness is revealed.
Occupied settlements by province:
Suynik has population of ~143k of which 43k live in city of Kapan, 20k in Goris, 15k in Suynik and 7k in Kajaran.
In comparison the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic has ~450k population.
Below is a map with captured settlements listing those from Suynik, Vayots Dzor and Ararat provinces. Tavush and Gegharkunik are only denoted with red circles.
The capture of the villages along the road from Goris to Sisyan effectively puts Azerbaijan in control over the physical link from Azerbaijan proper to Nakhichevan exclave. Creation of "Zangezur corridor" along the Armenian-Iranian border was mentioned by president Aliyev as a necessity to connect both regions of Azerbaijan. Current situation is far more disadvantageous to Armenia, especially if it persists indefinitely as a reversal of Artsakh.
In its narrowest section - between Goryak and Sisyan - the territory of Armenia is only ~30km wide which means that it can easily be kept under regular artillery fire from both sides.
According to IISS Azerbaijan has ~800 tanks ~150 self-propelled artillery and ~200 MLRS which is between 2:1 to 4:1 vs Armenia. This makes any reaction from Armenia largely impossible, as it has to defend its core population areas. Also the road from the north can easily be blocked while Azeri forces controlling Goris-Sisyan road can move their units almost at will.
Some speculation on the consequences in conjunction with a possible Turkish grand strategy:
If this is confirmed then Azerbaijan has already moved to the next stage, specifically mentioned in the second post (link above). Salami slicing to establish a grey zone area under Azerbaijan's physical control which will ultimately lead to annexation in the future, when circumstances permit. Current moves are careful to avoid destabilising the region too quickly, considering Iran's interest in preventing any expansion to Turk/Azeri influence.
------------------------
This conflict has entered its active phase in late 2020 with the major Azerbeijani offensive and will continue onward, likely beyond 2024.
Can the super-moderators change the title of the topic to just "Armenia vs Azerbaijan"? @Blitzo ?
This is the map of incursions into Armenia during the expulsions from Nagorno-Karabakh
According to Armenian government Azerbaijani forces extended their control. There is no independent confirmation yet and may be just a claim by Yerevan but it is likely that many people from left the area fearing such move and that left no witnesses. Despite the apparent ubiquity of information this situation was not public knowledge, or at least widespread public knowledge and one can only wonder why more hasn't been done to spread awareness. Likely if it's true then the Armenian government is afraid of losing further support as evidence of weakness is revealed.
Occupied settlements by province:
- Gegharkunik: Kakhakn, Kutakan, Sotk, Kut, Norabak, Nerkin Shorzha, Verin Shorzha, Akunk
- Tavush: Berkaber, Sarigyugh, Sevkar, Vazashen, Paravakar, Movses, Artsvaberd, Aygedzor, Chinari
- Vayots Dzor: Jermuk
- Ararat: Paruyr Sevak
- Syunik: Qajarants, Salvard, Gorayk, Sarnakunk, Angeghakot, Aghitu, Noravan, Vaghatin, Verishen, Khoznavar, Tegh, Nerkin Hand
Suynik has population of ~143k of which 43k live in city of Kapan, 20k in Goris, 15k in Suynik and 7k in Kajaran.
In comparison the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic has ~450k population.
Below is a map with captured settlements listing those from Suynik, Vayots Dzor and Ararat provinces. Tavush and Gegharkunik are only denoted with red circles.
The capture of the villages along the road from Goris to Sisyan effectively puts Azerbaijan in control over the physical link from Azerbaijan proper to Nakhichevan exclave. Creation of "Zangezur corridor" along the Armenian-Iranian border was mentioned by president Aliyev as a necessity to connect both regions of Azerbaijan. Current situation is far more disadvantageous to Armenia, especially if it persists indefinitely as a reversal of Artsakh.
In its narrowest section - between Goryak and Sisyan - the territory of Armenia is only ~30km wide which means that it can easily be kept under regular artillery fire from both sides.
According to IISS Azerbaijan has ~800 tanks ~150 self-propelled artillery and ~200 MLRS which is between 2:1 to 4:1 vs Armenia. This makes any reaction from Armenia largely impossible, as it has to defend its core population areas. Also the road from the north can easily be blocked while Azeri forces controlling Goris-Sisyan road can move their units almost at will.
Some speculation on the consequences in conjunction with a possible Turkish grand strategy:
Turkey Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
@Stealthflanker Here's a recent, very informative thread from one of the most prominent Turkish journalists on MURAD GaN FCR and F-16 Özgür avionic mod. Wonder your thoughts about the given infos. It's unfortunately in Turkish but you should have no problem auto-translating it. AKINCI SİHA...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
If this is confirmed then Azerbaijan has already moved to the next stage, specifically mentioned in the second post (link above). Salami slicing to establish a grey zone area under Azerbaijan's physical control which will ultimately lead to annexation in the future, when circumstances permit. Current moves are careful to avoid destabilising the region too quickly, considering Iran's interest in preventing any expansion to Turk/Azeri influence.
------------------------
This conflict has entered its active phase in late 2020 with the major Azerbeijani offensive and will continue onward, likely beyond 2024.
Can the super-moderators change the title of the topic to just "Armenia vs Azerbaijan"? @Blitzo ?