An attack on Iran is an economic attack on China

Thread re-opened, I had a talk with another mod and he decided there was nothing wrong here. So enjoy!

If there is no backup plan and China loses 14% of its imports in Oil, there will be war. People will not allow their government to sit back on this issue, it will serious affect the daily lives of many rich people in China. Just like in any country the rich have the power and will force change.

1) "Iran supplies about 14% of China's oil."

The simple fact is that China will respond.

If there is war, it will be an eye for an eye kind of war, which is not in the interest of anyone. The war is lost against Iran before it is fought. In Israel there is internal friction right now about Iran which no real solutions being brought to the table except aggression. Attacking Iran under a normal political situation just is not possible, because it is backed by Russian interest and Chinese interest.

I think Israel will attack and then there will be political turmoil within the country from pressure from business people and I see an overthrow of the current political elite in Israel, backed by Jews from Iran and the US.

China and Russia are currently determined to mitigate the tensions with a dual strategy of sending warning signals to the US (Putin's visit to Tehran around Oct. 16) but simultaneously ´encouraging´Iran to backdown and cooperate fully with the IAEA. Both major powers do not want another disastrous and destabilizing war bringing their economic and strategic environment in turmoil and probably Washington will get the message.

@alwaysfresh:
Unfortunately the stakes are much higher for China than only about cheap gasoline for Shanghai's new rich glitzy BMW's and a healthy development of their Sinopec shares portfolio.

A strangulation of China's energy supply would cause economic chaos and social unrest consequently imperiling CPC's grip on power.

In the end it's all about power and if the party and the state disintegrates poor and rich people will go down alike.

i have a question,, if we all know that an attack on iran would lead to total chaos, then why would the United States continue pursue to the military goal of conquering iran??

Unit88 said:

i have a question,, if we all know that an attack on iran would lead to total chaos, then why would the United States continue pursue to the military goal of conquering iran??

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That is a very sensible and interesting question, and; I am afraid, one totally beyond the remit of this forum to try and answer.

I must also warn members not to attempt to do so as it would most definitely be counted as a purely political discussion and result in a warning to the perpetrators and the closing of an interesting thread.

gripenator said:

Exactly where are your statistics from?

I have to refrain from rolling on the ground in laughter at your description of 'heroin' as although minor spelling mistakes on forums are acceptable you make it sound like Afghanistan produces the world's largest supply of good female superheroes:roll:

Regarding terrorists I would take on those Al-Qaeda guys anyday-the IRGC's capabilities and intelligence networks makes Osama's group look like Barbie dolls in comparison.

Back to the topic at hand, the PRC can always diversify oil supplies and look to Sudan and Central Asia for additional supplies. Turkmenistan, Kazahkstan and the rest of the Stans bar Afghanistan are ideal petroleum and gas sources through overland routes (TransCaspian, TransAfghanistan lines), given the PRC's paranoia over a hypothetical Straits of Malacca blockade. I don't see what is the fuss in losing Iran's production capability for the PRC especially when there was a high risk probability that hostilities would break outin the very narrow Strait of Hormuz anyway, doubtless PRC technocrats would have taken that eventuality into account.

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Hi, I have become disatisfied with indulging in voyeorism to this forum!

Lets talk about Central Asia! First thing comes into mind is Russia. The ruskies have been determined to deny anyone getting to much of the oil/gas sector see how they embarassed America and close friend india by forcing closure of bases. Back to point pipelines bypassing Russia is strongly opposed look at the recent one just been turned on (goes through Russia) The central asia states have also attracted western companies willing to pay big bucks so these "Stans" have a option when it comes to gaving out contracts, simply more competition, more to pay. In contrast Iran is sanctioned by the west so china has less competition. Iran needs the capital and expertise to develop them huge Oil and Gas fields (Sudan's are way smaller). China has also other contracts outside the primary sector, for one is the contruction of the Tehran's metro system. Billions in defence and other sectors could be lost too.

On a side note Russia was estimated to have lost a trillion dollar (yes, trillion)
of lost revenue from oil fields signed under sanctions. Russia has little to complain due to instability has led to greater wealth for their country. In contrast China has no surplus oil and gas of their own.

Finally smaller countries like Benin would suffer the most out of the economic fallout (outside mid east)

Iran exports about 4million brls/day if you were to take that amount out of world supply that will certainly take the oil prices to 300 to 400us dollars/brl if not more and that will hurt most economies:nono:

i personally think it less about iran but more about russia china and the us and there dominance of the middleeast

The net loss of oil supply for the world market would not be limited to Iran's export volume of 2.5 m barrel since Iran has the means to incapacitate Iraq's oil industry (2 m barrel) and Tehran's ally Venezuela will probably encounter ´unexpected technical problems´ taking further 2 m barrel off the table.

Altogether after an attack against Iran an export shortfall of immediately 6-7 million barrel would hit the global oil market, roughly equivalent to China's current import demand. Consequently oil prices would go through the roof hitting initially 110-120 $ and after the Hormuz strait gets somewhat ´clogged´200 $ per barrel would sent the global economy right into a depression.

Certainly not a bright scenario for an US presidential election year...!

Pointblank said:

Agreeded. Once Iran gets nukes, everyone within the region would want nukes to defend themselves. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Syria, etc. And with how volatile the region can be, it can turn into a nuclear weapons exchange really quickly. And that can mean the whole place could become a giant glass parking lot. So stopping the proliferation of nuclear weapons starts with Iran first and foremost.

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Are you sure it would start such a rush for others in the region to aquire the bomb? After all, Pakistan, India, and Israel have them, and I have not heard of Saudi, Jordan , Kuwait or others screaming for a bomb?
I dont think it would be a good idea for Iran to have a bomb just for the reason that it could either get in the wrong hands, be they external or internal hands.

As for Iran building nuclear plants for electricity, I think its a brilliant idea if they wish to live around nuke plants and take the risk. the majority of their economy is oil. So even though they have so much of it, why use it when you can sell it and use something else. I always thought the theory of Iran wanting to build nuclear power plants as only a front to build the bomb was silly. I think it makes perfect long term economical sense to find alternative solutions so they can keep the oil flowing a little longer. After all, its not going to be there forever.

But if those who want to go into Iran can use it as an excuse, like they did in Iraq, then it doesnt matter what the facts are.

But thats just my opinion.