An attack on Iran is an economic attack on China

Violet Oboe said:

Additionally attacking Iran would be tantamount to a declaration of war to all Shia muslims with majorities in Iraq, Azerbaidzhan, Bahrain and strong minorities in Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, Kuwait and Pakistan, overall 130 million people streching from the mediterranean to the indian border. The entire midlle east would explode right in the face of all major powers and the resulting energy crisis would cause the world economy to collapse.

There are effectively only two options for Washington:
1. Make a deal and live with a nuclear capable Iran (just like the US did with NK and Pakistan).
2. Apply overwhelming force with a massive month long air campaign possibly followed up by a ground invasion destroying surviving remnants of the regime (though the troops for this operation would have to come from a limited US draft) . After that Iran would look like Germany or Japan in 1945 and more than a million Iranian's would be dead (compared with the carnage in Iraq my estimate for a country of three times Iraq's population is indeed conservative) but of course there would be enough fanatic insurgents (guess what kind of ´super Iraq´ the Pasdaran have prepared there!) in the Zagros mountains to carry on guerrilla warfare for decades and draining the resources of the US.

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I doubt if governemnts/elites of muslim countries will react like that, they are devided, selfish and coward, each country only care about it's own interest, those who have been made slaves of the US will keep acting like that, though they will probably refuse to let US use their bases this time. Ofcourse the muslim people will be very angry and the number of 'terrorists' will grow by tens or hundreds times.

The 2nd option is not possible, the US can never afford the casulties that such ground attack takes, Bush will lose his job before bodycount hit honderedthousand. I think Bush will attack iran from air and sea only, causing iran to attack all targets in the region with missels and human bombs, making the whole midden east one big Iraq.

guys, make sure not to get too political here.

On the issue of Chinese intervention in a US-Iran situation, someone said that there is no way that China could militarily intervene because it does not border Iran and does not have the naval of air capability to get there.

Whoever wrote that is forgetting that all the Central Asian -stan countries are SCO members with a friendly relationship with China. I'm sure that China could arrange to transport its troops overland to Iran.

With that said why would China get involved in a US invasion of Iran? The US would be screwed enough without Chinese involvement.

Finn McCool said:

On the issue of Chinese intervention in a US-Iran situation, someone said that there is no way that China could militarily intervene because it does not border Iran and does not have the naval of air capability to get there.

Whoever wrote that is forgetting that all the Central Asian -stan countries are SCO members with a friendly relationship with China. I'm sure that China could arrange to transport its troops overland to Iran.

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That would be me you're quoting, Finn McCool. Your point of transporting Chinese ground forces to Iran through Central Asia is moot though; since there will be no ground invasion of Iran, but only air and sea bombardment, what good would Chinese ground troops do in Iran? China certainly won't send their troops into Iran to combat American F-22s. So the bottom line is still, no carriers, no fighter jets, and no ground forces for China to send to Iran; what's China going to do, offer their mental support?

the U.S. should tried to win the war in Iraq (and Afghanistan as well) before trying to attack Iran. Fighting a 3 front war at the same time is not a good idea.:coffee:

daveman said:

That would be me you're quoting, Finn McCool. Your point of transporting Chinese ground forces to Iran through Central Asia is moot though; since there will be no ground invasion of Iran, but only air and sea bombardment, what good would Chinese ground troops do in Iran? China certainly won't send their troops into Iran to combat American F-22s. So the bottom line is still, no carriers, no fighter jets, and no ground forces for China to send to Iran; what's China going to do, offer their mental support?

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I am of the opinion that there is no "middle option" for Iran. The United States cannot get away with a bombing campaign and escape having to invade the country. Once the path to war has started the US must destroy the Iranian reigeme totally. Thus an invasion would be in order.

This invasion is militarily impossible. It will fail. Which is why it won't happen. So as you said, the point is moot, but for different reasons.

Finn McCool said:

Whoever wrote that is forgetting that all the Central Asian -stan countries are SCO members with a friendly relationship with China. I'm sure that China could arrange to transport its troops overland to Iran.

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It would be impossible for China to supply its troops far beyond its borders because it lacks sufficient airlift. Also, the PLA doesn't train for foreign intervention scenarios, so it would be going in completely unprepared.

Finn McCool said:

This invasion is militarily impossible. It will fail. Which is why it won't happen. So as you said, the point is moot, but for different reasons.

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But all indications are that an attack will happen, foolish or not. And that means eventually it will come back to some form of ground attack. I envision a drive straight to Tehran, and a subsequent campaign to leave Iran permanently mired in factional conflict -- just like Palestine and Iraq.

I read all the post’s in this thread and have a different opinion on what might happen. I feel the attack will begin with the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. If secondary targets are chosen it will be Iran’s means to strike outside its borders. This alone is a huge task and maybe impossible to take out so many missiles. I think the US and others will be waiting for Iran’s response before an all out bombing of Iran’s military assets throughout their country. I’m not saying the US and others will stand around long and let Iran strike out I think a fast response from assets in place and waiting will be the way it will goes down. This way an all out attack against their military assets across their country can be justified if Iran strikes out. They have been asked to end their nuclear program and other options have been offered that they have refused. Iran has basically ended all talks on this matter. The first attack will target only their nuclear program and nothing else which is the cause of this problem. To stop any chance of weapons made from Iran’s nuclear program to be used against anybody. Nobody wants Iran government to control nuclear weapons it’s just too dangerous. If Iran chooses to strike out their infrastructure will be then destroyed by air country wide. I don’t feel other countries will help basically because no one wants Iran to have such weapons. I think how much of Iran’s infrastructure would be destroyed would be based on how many missiles it launched at American/coalition forces in the region and Israel. It won’t be like the Gulf I, war where Israel was asked to sit back and takes its lump’s. I think it will be made clear to Iran quickly if missiles are launched at Israel, US tankers and other assets will support Israel this time and that Israeli aircraft will take part. I do not think a land invasion is neither planned nor possible. Any land fighting would only take place if Iran struck outside its border. Bases in Pakistan and Afghanistan would be used for the air attack as well as others. I think countries in the region would show there displeasure for the strike to taking placed but secretly glad Iran won’t have these weapons in the end. A big factor would be the Saudi’s position in this and how they deal with the back lash but it the end they don’t want Iran’s government to have such weapons. Let’s not kid ourselves there would be weapons in time and Iran’s President would control them. The air attack wouldn't be aimed at Iran's oil and gas industry so China oil flow shouldn't mess with. If you look at it in a different way say five years from now and say some form of a weapon or weapons were used and traced back to Iran, China would lose their oil supply for good then. Let's stop it now before it gets to that point would be the way to go.

How do you attack infrastructure and leave the supply of oil unchanged? I do not think that is likely. Nor would Iran leave the flow of oil unchanged should it be attacked in any way.

daveman said:

That would be me you're quoting, Finn McCool. Your point of transporting Chinese ground forces to Iran through Central Asia is moot though; since there will be no ground invasion of Iran, but only air and sea bombardment, what good would Chinese ground troops do in Iran? China certainly won't send their troops into Iran to combat American F-22s. So the bottom line is still, no carriers, no fighter jets, and no ground forces for China to send to Iran; what's China going to do, offer their mental support?

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You know what the Chinese can do? Not ground troop, but they could provide military hardware and economic support. To fight F-22, you use anti-air defense systems, and radars. To help them economically, China should start buying every last drop of oil out of Iran. It's a win-win situation. That's what the Chinese should do. They could also send for some mental support, to America that is after all, it's their soldiers that's demoralized.