An Analysis of Size and Structure of the Army of Reunified Korea

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nemo

Junior Member
delft said:
I would expect Second Artillery to be able to react well within seven hours, not seven days, knocking out transport links and fuel depots and reducing the speed of advance to less than 15 km per day.
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Providing you know where to send the missiles -- such as your own infrastructure. And how to you get the 15 km per day figure? That's rate of advance in an offensive with active combat -- less than 1 km/hr average. Each vehicles have enough fuel to drive at least 300km without refueling, and divisions carries more fuels and ammo with it than the fuel in the fuel tank, so I don't see how it affects short term rate of advance.

At the beginning stage, the Korean troops have numerical superiority, so instead of fighting through the sporadic resistances, one only need to spare enough troops to pin the opposition and let the follow on echelon to deal with them. This is essentially a deep exploitation of full penetration by an OMG (operational maneuver group) -- except there will be even less resistance, initially.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Plus, any combination of North Korea and South Korean armies does not take into account the fact they blow each other to shreds, AND THEN unite... even then, Unit Cohesion between North Korea and South Korean armies is virtually impossible.
 
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delft

Brigadier
nemo said:
Providing you know where to send the missiles -- such as your own infrastructure. And how to you get the 15 km per day figure? That's rate of advance in an offensive with active combat -- less than 1 km/hr average. Each vehicles have enough fuel to drive at least 300km without refueling, and divisions carries more fuels and ammo with it than the fuel in the fuel tank, so I don't see how it affects short term rate of advance.

At the beginning stage, the Korean troops have numerical superiority, so instead of fighting through the sporadic resistances, one only need to spare enough troops to pin the opposition and let the follow on echelon to deal with them. This is essentially a deep exploitation of full penetration by an OMG (operational maneuver group) -- except there will be even less resistance, initially.
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150 km per day means following roads, which can easily be hit by long range artillery even if they are not already cut by blowing up bridges. If the offensive is continued despite such disruption and the disruption due to badly organized cooperation between NK and SK forces, it will then also be hit by air attack of many kinds. You can expect attacks on the flanks after no more than two days. The attack will not last seven days, not reach 105 km.
 
N

nemo

Junior Member
delft said:
150 km per day means following roads, which can easily be hit by long range artillery even if they are not already cut by blowing up bridges. If the offensive is continued despite such disruption and the disruption due to badly organized cooperation between NK and SK forces, it will then also be hit by air attack of many kinds. You can expect attacks on the flanks after no more than two days. The attack will not last seven days, not reach 105 km.
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The assumption is that except for rapid reaction forces, it takes couple of days to move the troops into the position. So where does that long range artillery comes from? Second Artillery does not have that many missiles.
Air fields will be hit by air raids, and there will be air covers, so let's keep the air forces out of the equation for now.

As for the attack from the flank -- the assumption is that unified Korea will have numerical superiority at the beginning, so and afford to pin those troops with detachment for the follow on echelon/reserves to handle.

As for bad cooperation, you can mitigate some by just assigning them to different operation area -- SK against Beijing MR and NK against Shenyang MR.
 
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no_name

Colonel
Iraq is a relatively flat country. Did anyone remember how long it took for US to drive to Baghdad?

Do we know how much supply a million man army needs a day?

The approach for China would be to follow 'you fight your war, I fight mine approach'. Have the troops in Manchuria to avoid direct engagement with Korean troops, but harrass their supply line after their main force has passed. Mean while troops from beijing will try to held on to front line and reserves can be called in from the rest of China.

Again, it still takes good old infantry to hold ground. Did anyone remember how much troop Beijing was able to direct into Sichuan immediately after the 2008 earthquake?

Also, while the reserve number of the Koreas may look impressive, I serious doubt they had enough weapons for all of them. And are we expecting them to walk to places that need defending, pool cars or maybe use the bus? What's the strategic oil reserves inside Korea if wars cannot be bought to an end fast enough?

If SK is to be assigned against Beijing MR and NK against Shenyang MR, then the Shenyang MR should deny major engagements that NK seeks, and let them run out of steam. The NK then face the decision of further pursuing Shenyang MR or join SK in attacking beijing. If it was the latter, then Shenyang will harrass their lines while they are breaking off. Plus if you split NK and SK to face different MRs, then you essentially will only have SK forces pushing towards the chicken neck.

Second artillery missiles will not be attacking transport routes in China, but those in Korea.
 
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N

nemo

Junior Member
no_name said:
Iraq is a relatively flat country. Did anyone remember how long it took for US to drive to Baghdad?

Do we know how much supply a million man army needs a day?

The approach for China would be to follow 'you fight your war, I fight mine approach'. Have the troops in Manchuria to avoid direct engagement with Korean troops, but harrass their supply line after their main force has passed. Mean while troops from beijing will try to held on to front line and reserves can be called in from the rest of China.

Again, it still takes good old infantry to hold ground. Did anyone remember how much troop Beijing was able to direct into Sichuan immediately after the 2008 earthquake?

Also, while the reserve number of the Koreas may look impressive, I serious doubt they had enough weapons for all of them. And are we expecting them to walk to places that need defending, pool cars or maybe use the bus? What's the strategic oil reserves inside Korea if wars cannot be bought to an end fast enough?

If SK is to be assigned against Beijing MR and NK against Shenyang MR, then the Shenyang MR should deny major engagements that NK seeks, and let them run out of steam. The NK then face the decision of further pursuing Shenyang MR or join SK in attacking beijing. If it was the latter, then Shenyang will harrass their lines while they are breaking off. Plus if you split NK and SK to face different MRs, then you essentially will only have SK forces pushing towards the chicken neck.

Second artillery missiles will not be attacking transport routes in China, but those in Korea.
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On average, probably half a ton per person per day. However, captured civilian fuel can be used, and captured weapons and ammunition can be used by NK troops.

If united Korean troops captured the chicken neck, Shenyang MR is going to be cut off from supply. As such, they cannot sustain combat effectiveness as a regular formation for long, although they may be able to sustain guerilla operation for quite a while.

I am assuming SK troops alone will be enough to fight to the chicken neck, and hold it against all attackers. Continue toward Beijing would constitute too much risk. Better force PLA to attack well defended closed terrain to neutralize PLA's eventual numerical superiority.
 
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no_name

Colonel
nemo said:
If united Korean troops captured the chicken neck, Shenyang MR is going to be cut off from supply. As such, they cannot sustain combat effectiveness as a regular formation for long, although they may be able to sustain guerilla operation for quite a while.
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Are you certain that Shenyang MR is going to be cut off from supply? What is the size of Manchuria compared to Korea?


nemo said:
I am assuming SK troops alone will be enough to fight to the chicken neck, and hold it against all attackers. Continue toward Beijing would constitute too much risk. Better force PLA to attack well defended closed terrain to neutralize PLA's eventual numerical superiority.
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SK's best bet would be to force on beijing and try a takeover (unlikely) or at least to get a good bargaining position. A combined SK and NK attack on China is a huge commitment from Korea, it is either an all or doom senario for them.

I would say psychologically capturing beijing is very important than just holding onto a long frontline and inciting popular sentiment in mainland china of Manchuria being stolen from them.

Holding at the chicken neck only makes sense if Korea plans to digest Manchuria. And that is something that is going to take years. Can the Korea economy function with so many men away fighting or just guarding against the possibility of a Chinese advance.

The combined population of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning is about 109.5 million. The combined korea numbers about 74 million. This does not look like a quick conflict, which is one of the main premise why the combined Korea would want to launch a war on China in the first place. What would the Koreas have gained except for perhaps a wasted land, bad performing economy, and a very angry china for many years to come, if they can last years in the first place? Last time I checked about 20% of SK's export went to china, 25% I think, if you count exports to HK.
 
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Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Unified China (ROC+PRC) would annhilate any country on Earth...

Taiwanese Technology + Mainland China Industry/Manpower??

Not to mention add Hong Kong's world class financial structure, property rights, and rule of law, plus Singapore's excellent governance system and Overseas Chinese diaspora brain power, wealth etc...
 
D

delft

Brigadier
I have thought of a different approach. Second Artillery takes out all Korean power stations and oil refineries. China then suggests to Korea unconditional surrender.
 
P

PanAsian

Major
Phead128 said:
Unified China (ROC+PRC) would annhilate any country on Earth...

Taiwanese Technology + Mainland China Industry/Manpower??

Not to mention add Hong Kong's world class financial structure, property rights, and rule of law, plus Singapore's excellent governance system and Overseas Chinese diaspora brain power, wealth etc...
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Huh? Dream on...

The US is ahead of any other country on earth in actual military capability, the ones that can match it in high tech don't have the size (Israel, Japan, etc) while the ones that have the size don't have the tech, not to mention high tech (BRICs, Iran, etc). In terms of nuclear deterrence only Russia comes close.

Not to mention most of these countries are either allies of the US or has no reason to fight with the US, unless the US picks a fight with them. It will take lots of soft power growth backed by corresponding hard power for China to achieve a similar standing, some of the US soft power is due to its unique isolated geography which China can never attain.

China's prerogative is to maintain a steady growth trajectory, the US prerogative is to upset this. As we all know, it's easier to destroy than to build, so China has its work cut out for it.

By the time China can successfully re-unify with Taiwan and can attract places like Singapore as an ally, the time for anyone to upset its growth will be long past. However, as of right now China is nowhere near that.
 
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