An Analysis of Size and Structure of the Army of Reunified Korea

Phead128 said:

.... then explain why General MacArthur proposed to use National ROC forces to invade Mainland China via Korean peninsula...

Only reason why nobody wanted to fight China is because China was allied with USSR, and USSR would have invaded Europe in retailiation...

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Because MacArthur was batshit crazy with impotent nerd-rage at that point. This is the guy who wanted to march his UN army all the way to Beijing as a springboard for his presidential run. The guy was an egomaniac.

He thought that because he personally beat the Imperial Japanese all by his lonesome, China would be a cakewalk in comparison. The guy was so bent out of shape about having his a$$ handed to him by a genetically inferior army that was hopelessly outgunned in every way possible that he was demanding the use of nuclear weapons on Chinese cities.

And you were wrong about nobody wanting to fight China. There was a very good chance that MacCrazy would be kept on going after reaching the Yalu and tried to take all of China while he was at it. That was why the Chinese went into Korea.

But the very idea of a unified Korea launching an invasion of China is patiently ridiculous. In terms of standing military, reserves, population, industrial capacity, national wealth, military technology, a unified Korea does not even come close. Even if the unified Korea was at the same industrial and technical level was South Korea, a unified Korea would still have no chance of successfully invading China.

Even the mighty USA would not be able to launch a successful invasion of China (assuming no-one would use nukes ever). The USA could not even pacify Iraq or Afghanistan, and they are nothing like the kind of resistance you can expect in a ground war on mainland China.

If the Koreans actually tried, at most they will get a few hundred kilometers into China if they managed to pull off a massive surprise attack and catch the PLA unawares. But once the PLA has had time to organize and form a solid defensive line, the Koreans would just get annihilated, and the longer the conflict goes, the more it will tip in China's favor.

Any Korean invasion of China will end in exactly the same way as it did for the Germans when they invaded the USSR, the only difference being the Koreans will never get remotely as far into Chinese territory as the Germans did in Russia.

Seriously, why are we still discussing this as if it is even remotely likely to happen?

It would be far more likely for the Chinese and South Koreans to launch a joint, two-front invasion of North Korea than it will ever before the North and South Korea to team up and try to invade Northern China.

Phead128 said:

.... then explain why General MacArthur proposed to use National ROC forces to invade Mainland China via Korean peninsula...

Only reason why nobody wanted to fight China is because China was allied with USSR, and USSR would have invaded Europe in retailiation...

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The key word here is "propose". You can propose a lot things. Whether any of them is feasible is a totally different matter. MacArthur also proposed an all-out invasion of China, the use of nukes on China, among other things. Was any of these proposal feasible or even correct? No one knows since it never came to reality.

Anyone who still thinks China and the Soviets were on good terms should go back and read some history books. China and the Soviets were NEVER in good relationship even though both had communist political system. Even in the late 40's, the time that both parties supposedly were in the best of times, the Soviets was NOT friend to the CCP. After the Japanese surrendered, the Manchuria became under Soviet control. The first party that the Soviets talked to when discussing giving it back to China was Jiang Jieshi of the Nationalist party, NOT the CCP, as many would have thought. IT was only after Jiang declined many unreasonable requests from the Soviets that the Soviets began talking with the CCP. even after agreeing to hand the Manchuria to the CCP, the Soviets demanded that the PLA soldiers could NOT be armed when entering Manchuria. So PLA walked (yes, literally walking) into Manchuria empty-handed. All these showed that the Soviets was no friend of the CCP and only wanted to ridicule the CCP. The volatile dynamics could not have escaped the watchful eyes of the Americans since the US was THE biggest ally of the Chinese Nationalists. So it would be well known within the political/military circle in the US that the Soviets was NO friend of the CCP. And what happened at the beginning of the Korean War fully supported such view. The Soviets urged NK to invade SK, but leaving both China and NK high and dry when the US/UN and SK fought back and invaded NK. It was obvious like daylight to everyone involved that the Soviets did not have good intention in mind toward China and NK. So it's completely nonsense to think that the US would actually fear that the Soviets would invade Europe if China was invaded. Again, everyone, that included American and Chinese, knew that Soviets was trying to get the Americans to fight the Chinese and sit back and watch and enjoy whatever outcome of the war was.

In fact, that was the basis for the eventual decision by Nixon to visit China and form an alliance with China against the Soviets.

If the Soviets was the reason that the US did not want to invade China, why would they not do it in the 60's and 70's when China and the Soviets were literally at war? China was in the most vulnerable at that time when it was in a complete chaos domestically and at the brink of an all-out open war with the Soviets and even with India. At the time, the US was not too far away from the area. Let;s not forget that the US at the time was fighting in Vietnam, merely a couple hundred miles from the mainland China. All they had to do was to send bombers and missiles to attack China. This time, the Soviets would not be the concern, would it? In fact, when that happens, the Soviets might begin open attacks on China from the North. Yet, China was safe, wasn't it? Jiang in Taiwan never forgot about his humiliating defeat at the hand of the CCP and also never gave up any chance that would allow him to go back to the mainland. then explain why the US/Taiwan did not invade mainland China during this period...

---------- Post added at 06:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:47 PM ----------

no_name said:

But ROC can see it like daylight that the US is retreating. Maybe it would have been more useful for McArthur to use ROC troops to start the opening front on NK right at the start. Chiang might not be able to resist the temptation of a direct push to Beijing from NK. Too bad he was feeling like superman at the time. Also I think it has been the intention of Trueman to keep war limited to the K-peninsula from the start, the ROC action in NK would not make sense, except as cannon fodders.

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There is a reason that Truman or any sensible person would want to keep the war limited. They knew a full-blown war with a unified China would be a nightmare.

vesicles said:

If the Soviets was the reason that the US did not want to invade China, why would they not do it in the 60's and 70's when China and the Soviets were literally at war? China was in the most vulnerable at that time when it was in a complete chaos domestically and at the brink of an all-out open war with the Soviets and even with India. At the time, the US was not too far away from the area. Let;s not forget that the US at the time was fighting in Vietnam, merely a couple hundred miles from the mainland China. All they had to do was to send bombers and missiles to attack China. This time, the Soviets would not be the concern, would it? In fact, when that happens, the Soviets might begin open attacks on China from the North. Yet, China was safe, wasn't it? Jiang in Taiwan never forgot about his humiliating defeat at the hand of the CCP and also never gave up any chance that would allow him to go back to the mainland. then explain why the US/Taiwan did not invade mainland China during this period...

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Maybe because they all know China was serious from K-war and the 1964 war. Also Mao was still alive and China had nukes by then and Mao (at least on surface) openly declared that he is not afraid to fight a nuke war.

The quick 1964 war sidelined India pretty effectively. They were still hostile, but they did not try to cause more trouble to a China that was then alrealy in a pretty bad geopolitical situation.

Also the CIA did try something in China's backyard during the 60s.

no_name said:

The quick 1964 war sidelined India pretty effectively. They were still hostile, but they did not try to cause more trouble to a China that was then alrealy in a pretty bad geopolitical situation.

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I thought it was 1962?

plawolf said:

But the very idea of a unified Korea launching an invasion of China is patiently ridiculous. In terms of standing military, reserves, population, industrial capacity, national wealth, military technology, a unified Korea does not even come close. Even if the unified Korea was at the same industrial and technical level was South Korea, a unified Korea would still have no chance of successfully invading China.

Even the mighty USA would not be able to launch a successful invasion of China (assuming no-one would use nukes ever). The USA could not even pacify Iraq or Afghanistan, and they are nothing like the kind of resistance you can expect in a ground war on mainland China.

If the Koreans actually tried, at most they will get a few hundred kilometers into China if they managed to pull off a massive surprise attack and catch the PLA unawares. But once the PLA has had time to organize and form a solid defensive line, the Koreans would just get annihilated, and the longer the conflict goes, the more it will tip in China's favor.

Any Korean invasion of China will end in exactly the same way as it did for the Germans when they invaded the USSR, the only difference being the Koreans will never get remotely as far into Chinese territory as the Germans did in Russia.

Seriously, why are we still discussing this as if it is even remotely likely to happen?

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Well, somebody did, else he wouldn't wrote this paper in the first place. And it's not an nobody either -- it's someone the South Korean government thought it worthwhile to send him to Naval Postgraduate School in US.

If he *really* thinks China is going to invade united Korea, then he would emphasis Chinese claim on Korea rather than Korean claim on China. Since he emphasizes the latter, then he is thinking about Korean invasion of China, particularly so when he establishes that United Korea is more powerful than China -- let's put aside how atrociously bad that analysis is. The point is that he thinks Korea got a chance, no matter what we thinks here.

An interesting scenario would be a surprise war by united Korea, and they captured the chicken neck area between Manchuria and Hebei, so the whole Manchuria is isolated and China cannot outflank Korean troops unless China want to violate the sovereignty of Mongolia. With troops of the united Korea, this scenario is possible.

nemo said:

An interesting scenario would be a surprise war by united Korea, and they captured the chicken neck area between Manchuria and Hebei, so the whole Manchuria is isolated and China cannot outflank Korean troops unless China want to violate the sovereignty of Mongolia. With troops of the united Korea, this scenario is possible.

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In the age of satellite surveillance, surprise attacks on such a large scale is no longer possible. China would be able to detect any massing of forces long before the Koreans were ready to launch an attack.

nemo said:

An interesting scenario would be a surprise war by united Korea, and they captured the chicken neck area between Manchuria and Hebei, so the whole Manchuria is isolated and China cannot outflank Korean troops unless China want to violate the sovereignty of Mongolia. With troops of the united Korea, this scenario is possible.

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Out-flanking Manchuria by a unified Korea??? I don't think that's even possible. The only link between Manchuria and Korea is the Yalu river and that is the bottle neck that Korea will have to go through when entering China. And crossing the Yalu will be an amphibious attack on open water. There will not be anything like a covert or surprise attack since most of the river is difficult to navigate and cross. Only small sections are crossable. Also, China and NK share control of a couple hundred small islands dotted on the river. It would be almost impossible to surprise the Chinese.

On top of that, the connection between Korea and Manchuria is located east of Liaoning province, which has both Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces located north to it. If the Koreans somehow managed to cross the Yalu, they will be naturally out-flanked and surrounded by PLA stationed in Jilin and Heilongjiang, as well as troops in the Inner Mongolia as back-up. PLA in Jilin and Heilongjiang can also launch an amphibious attack on the Korean mainland from the north while PLA in Hebei and Shandong can launch amphibious assault from the south. With East Sea fleet and South Sea fleet also attacking from the East, Korea will be completely surrounded. Whatever troops that manages to enter China through Yalu will be isolated and trapped.

Your proposed scenario will NOT work because in order for Korea to isolate Manchuria, they will need reinforcement in the north to trap PLA troops in Jilin and Heilongjiang. Otherwise, they will jump into a tightened clamp, in what is Jilin and Heilongjiang on the one side and Liaoning/Hebei on the other side. They will be crushed.

Also, have you looked at a map of China? The "chicken neck" of between Manchuria and Hebei is actually wider than the length of the entire unified Korea! How do you expect Korea to take over, and even more importantly, maintain the hold of this huge line with limited manpower and supply? Even if they somehow managed to captured the area by some surprise, ninja attack, PLA can easily overrun them.

Just read thing, it assumes China only have 63 120mm mortar and nothing else zero towed artillery. However this sort of thing get past an adviser let alone be published...
As for the "chicken neck" scenario, just fire up The Operational Art of War and run a game from it. It is a terriable strategic position to be in. Just remember, they are facing the entire Beijing MR and Shengyang MR.

Both North and South Korea has regular+ reserve which is larger then PLA's regular+ reserve -- so it may be that PLA is outnumbered initially. If you consider only the regular troops, North Korea + South Korea has around 800K troops -- which will overwhelm troops in Mongolia and Hebei initially. And area north of Beijing are mountainous -- it wouldn't take a lot of troops to block the chicken neck, assuming they can get this far.

As for surprise, while you cannot really mask large troop movement, it can be mask diplomatically. For example, when Korea unifies, it may have excuse to bring up modern divisions from the south to the northern border, if unified Korean falsely announce that it intend to disband the Northern Korean troops. So at least for a short while, the unified Korea can have both South and North Korea army in the North Korea without alarming PLA. Instead of stopping at border, it and drive right through.

Assuming it's a total surprise, South Korean can blow pass the under defended border, and go straight for chicken neck, achieving daily advance rate around 150 km a day. If it's lucky, it might get there in around a week. The only PLA troops that can react that fast are the Rapid Reaction Forces in the region, and they are going to be outnumbered. Once the chicken neck is gained, the troops in Shenyang MR can be destroyed in detail by using the reserves -- which need time to call up.

As for the atrocious analysis -- it's worse than that. The guy even counted weapons planned and not yet produced for the SK, but not for PLA. Either way is fine, but it need to be consistent. And he also mistakes total equipment in the inventory with equipment deployed with the troops -- those are NOT the same. Instead of relying on badly foreign published total TOE of the PLA, he should have done homework by generating that from subunit TOE -- if you know the typical equipment of a division, you can generate a much more complete list of equipment -- you certainly would not miscount the mortars. Yeah, it's really puzzling that any adviser would let the work of this quality get past.

nemo said:

Both North and South Korea has regular+ reserve which is larger then PLA's regular+ reserve -- so it may be that PLA is outnumbered initially. If you consider only the regular troops, North Korea + South Korea has around 800K troops -- which will overwhelm troops in Mongolia and Hebei initially. And area north of Beijing are mountainous -- it wouldn't take a lot of troops to block the chicken neck, assuming they can get this far.

As for surprise, while you cannot really mask large troop movement, it can be mask diplomatically. For example, when Korea unifies, it may have excuse to bring up modern divisions from the south to the northern border, if unified Korean falsely announce that it intend to disband the Northern Korean troops. So at least for a short while, the unified Korea can have both South and North Korea army in the North Korea without alarming PLA. Instead of stopping at border, it and drive right through.

Assuming it's a total surprise, South Korean can blow pass the under defended border, and go straight for chicken neck, achieving daily advance rate around 150 km a day. If it's lucky, it might get there in around a week. The only PLA troops that can react that fast are the Rapid Reaction Forces in the region, and they are going to be outnumbered. Once the chicken neck is gained, the troops in Shenyang MR can be destroyed in detail by using the reserves -- which need time to call up.

As for the atrocious analysis -- it's worse than that. The guy even counted weapons planned and not yet produced for the SK, but not for PLA. Either way is fine, but it need to be consistent. And he also mistakes total equipment in the inventory with equipment deployed with the troops -- those are NOT the same. Instead of relying on badly foreign published total TOE of the PLA, he should have done homework by generating that from subunit TOE -- if you know the typical equipment of a division, you can generate a much more complete list of equipment -- you certainly would not miscount the mortars. Yeah, it's really puzzling that any adviser would let the work of this quality get past.

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I would expect Second Artillery to be able to react well within seven hours, not seven days, knocking out transport links and fuel depots and reducing the speed of advance to less than 15 km per day.