American Economics Thread

tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
I wonder at this point, if a person can get a top position presenting economic statistics to the American public, make everything up: "US jobs grows 1,203% under Trump's glory!" "Unemployment level at -39% due to President Trump!" "US GDP grew 19X faster than China's this quarter posting 143% growth thanks to President Trump." "Average American net worth $12 Billion under Trump's new plan!" and just get protected from all backlash by the White House. I feel like Trump's so desperate, you can do that, and if anyone tries to pull you down, you could just go to Trump asking him if he wants to see a loyal ally go down and get replaced with someone who's actually going to do realistic statistics and put his presidency under economic scrutiny.
1. Negative unemployment would mean overemployment, a.k.a. working multiple jobs, which is not far from the truth.

2. Under Trump's old plan, tariff the whole world and not 1 percent less, given enough time, hyperinflation would have elevated the average American's net worth to $12 Billion USD

3. As the most charismatic man on this forum, I support you to be the next Trump econ statistics spokesman. You would be the younger, better looking version of that Taiwanese dude who ran Trumps election communications campaign, who is married to a fine milf I might add
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
If inflation really is cooling, and this isn't just more fake shit, then it's because employment is getting hammered and demand is hurting across the board.
The problem is how to cut interest rates without causing inflation, especially in food prices, and now with tariffs.

FED planners don't really care much about a recession, as much as they do about stagflation or even inflation that could turn into hyperinflation. They'd rather receive their enormous pensions and not have their purchasing power annihilated by their reckless economic/monetary policies.

The American economy is in trouble.

Low emergency savings: 24% of Americans have no emergency savings; 59% unable to cover US$1,000 in 2025

Unemployment Rise: The rate rose to 4.2% in July 2025, the highest since October 2021, with the number of unemployed increasing by 221,000

Low Job Creation: Only 73,000 jobs were added in July 2025, with downward revisions from 258,000 in previous months

Credit Card Debt: Total reached US$1.21 trillion in Q2 2025, with 6.93% of balances delinquent

Car Loan Delinquency: The 90+ day rate reached 5.0% in Q1 2025, above the historical average

Debt-Committed Income: Payments consumed 11.25% of disposable income in Q1 2025

Food Inflation: Prices rose 3% in the 12 months to June 2025, putting pressure on items such as meat and eggs.

Decline in Real Estate Sales: Sales fell 2.7% in June 2025, to 3.93 million annually, the lowest level in nine months.

Increase in Foreclosures: Grew 7% in the first half of 2025, totaling 140,006 properties.

Increase in Bankruptcies: Total bankruptcies rose 11.5% in the 12 months to June 2025, with an acceleration in commercial and individual bankruptcies.

Unrealized Bank Losses on Government Securities: Losses totaled US$413 billion in Q1 2025, representing approximately 8.6% of face value. In a rush to withdraw, forced sales could lead to bank insolvencies and failures.

National Debt and Interest Costs: Total debt reached US$36.2 trillion in June 2025, with interest costs projected at US$952 billion for the year, exceeding 3.2% of GDP.
 

CMP

Captain
Registered Member
The problem is how to cut interest rates without causing inflation, especially in food prices, and now with tariffs.

FED planners don't really care much about a recession, as much as they do about stagflation or even inflation that could turn into hyperinflation. They'd rather receive their enormous pensions and not have their purchasing power annihilated by their reckless economic/monetary policies.

The American economy is in trouble.

Low emergency savings: 24% of Americans have no emergency savings; 59% unable to cover US$1,000 in 2025

Unemployment Rise: The rate rose to 4.2% in July 2025, the highest since October 2021, with the number of unemployed increasing by 221,000

Low Job Creation: Only 73,000 jobs were added in July 2025, with downward revisions from 258,000 in previous months

Credit Card Debt: Total reached US$1.21 trillion in Q2 2025, with 6.93% of balances delinquent

Car Loan Delinquency: The 90+ day rate reached 5.0% in Q1 2025, above the historical average

Debt-Committed Income: Payments consumed 11.25% of disposable income in Q1 2025

Food Inflation: Prices rose 3% in the 12 months to June 2025, putting pressure on items such as meat and eggs.

Decline in Real Estate Sales: Sales fell 2.7% in June 2025, to 3.93 million annually, the lowest level in nine months.

Increase in Foreclosures: Grew 7% in the first half of 2025, totaling 140,006 properties.

Increase in Bankruptcies: Total bankruptcies rose 11.5% in the 12 months to June 2025, with an acceleration in commercial and individual bankruptcies.

Unrealized Bank Losses on Government Securities: Losses totaled US$413 billion in Q1 2025, representing approximately 8.6% of face value. In a rush to withdraw, forced sales could lead to bank insolvencies and failures.

National Debt and Interest Costs: Total debt reached US$36.2 trillion in June 2025, with interest costs projected at US$952 billion for the year, exceeding 3.2% of GDP.
Either way, as soon as JPOW is out, Trump's chosen man will lower rates ASAP as low as they can with no concern for inflation.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 44:
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In fact, during the first six months of this year, 5,822 store closures were recorded.
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Store closures across the U.S. continue to rise and remain on track to far significantly surpass both new openings and the figures seen in 2024.

According to a new report from research and advisory firm Coresight Research, cited by CoStar News, 5,822 store closures were recorded as of June 27, compared to 3,496 closures announced during the same period in 2024.
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Consumers are under greater financial stress than ever, and this has resulted in a substantial decline in store traffic. ...
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Many of the retail store closures are a result of declining store traffic as more consumers respond to inflation by reducing spending. There are also more consumers turning to online shopping especially for apparel, accessories and household items. The winner is not merely Amazon but increased competition from Temu and Shein marketplaces and social commerce outlets like TikTok.
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The percentage of student loans going into serious default is exploding…
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The total amount of outstanding student loan debt was $1.64 trillion in the second quarter of 2025 after rising by $7 billion in the quarter.

Additionally, the share of student loan debt entering serious delinquency, considered 90 days or more late, jumped to 12.9% at the end of June, up from 8% in March and above pre-pandemic trends that were around 9-10% from 2012 into early 2020, when the moratorium initially took effect.
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We will also see more layoffs, and the fact that continuing unemployment claims have reached their highest level since 2021 is not a good sign...
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Recurring applications for unemployment benefits surged to the highest since November 2021, adding to recent signs that the labor market is weakening.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.
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On top of all this, US manufacturing activity is now in contraction territory…
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From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey. The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 score that differentiates growth and decline.

The effective average tariff rate on all imported goods now stands at around roughly 18% versus 2.3% last year, the highest levels since the 1930s.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 45:
The BLS just revised the employment numbers for May and June to a combined total of 258,000 jobs, and it completely shocked many experts...
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Nonfarm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than the 100,000 expected by analysts. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.2 percent.

The report also sharply revised down the figures for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs from the previously released figures.

Following the revision June’s total was left at just 14,000 and May’s at 19,000 — effectively flat. Analysts say July’s figure is also likely to be revised lower, possibly into negative territory.
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I have always felt that the Household survey is at least somewhat more accurate, and it showed a loss of 260,000 jobs last month…
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The number was even uglier in the Household survey, which showed a drop of 260K workers in July, the 3rd biggest monthly drop of 2025.
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According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, American employers announced 62,075 job cuts in July. This number is 140% higher than in July 2024…
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U.S.-based employers announced 62,075 job cuts in July, up 29% from June’s 47,999. It is up 140% from 25,885 announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

July’s job cuts are well above average for this month since the pandemic. From 2021 to 2024, job cut announcements in July averaged 23,584. Considering the past decade (2015-2025), last month’s announced cuts are still above the average of 60,398.
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Overall, US employers announced 806,383 job cuts during the first seven months of 2025. This represents a 75% increase from the first seven months of last year…
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So far this year, companies have announced 806,383 job cuts, the highest YTD since 2020 when 1,847,696 were announced. It is up 75% from the 460,530 job cuts announced through the first seven months of last year and is up 6% from the 2024 full-year total of 761,358.
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Factory activity in the United States just contracted “at the fastest rate in nine months”…
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US factory activity contracted in July at the fastest pace in nine months, dragged down by a faster decline in employment as orders continued to shrink.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index decreased 1 point last month to 48, according to data released Friday. The gauge has been below 50, which indicates contraction, for five straight months.

A measure of factory employment slid to the lowest level in more than five years, suggesting producers are stepping up efforts to control costs amid higher tariffs and softer demand. Government figures this week showed sluggish consumer spending and business investment in the first half of the year.
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It's being reported that the number of Americans who have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks is now at "the highest level since 2017, not counting the pandemic-induced unemployment surge"...
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Job seekers are out in the cold this summer. Especially those who have been hunting for a while.

Beyond the headline-grabbing top-line numbers in the jobs report for July was another striking piece of data: The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks topped 1.8 million, the highest level since 2017, not counting the pandemic’s unemployment surge. The median length of unemployment in the U.S. has also ticked up, from a seasonally adjusted 9.5 weeks in July 2024 to 10.2 weeks last month.
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A recent study found that about two-thirds of all U.S. adults “lie about or hide their financial struggles from family and friends”…
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Two-thirds of Americans with debt lie about or hide their financial struggles from family and friends.
The average American carries $42,000 in debt but understates the amount by $6,565 when discussing it.
Shame drives secrecy, with nearly 30% citing embarrassment as their main reason for hiding debt.
Financial deception damages relationships for 73% of people with debt, often causing arguments and isolation.
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Residential investment fell during the first quarter of 2025 and fell sharply during the second quarter of 2025…
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In May, Citi Research recalled that the late economist Ed Leamer famously published a paper in 2007 that said residential investment is the best leading indicator of an oncoming recession.

“We would be wise to heed his warning,” Citi said.

In fact, residential fixed investment shrank 4.6% in the second quarter, according to data released Wednesday, after contracting 1.3% in the first quarter.
 
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