American Economics Thread

[siegecrossbow]

As I said, believe what you want.

You need to interpret what is stated correctly and not take things literally.

Why are 28% of all adults looking for new jobs if the unemployment rate is below 5%?

Do you really think that 1/4 of all employed adults would be trying to find another job? This does not work in reality, but it is still a strong indicator that the official data is falsified, creating a much more unstable scenario than the data suggests, which is nothing new.

In fact, a large part of them must also be looking for another job because the chances of layoffs must be quite high, considering the instability of the current job market.

As I said, the unemployment numbers are higher than the official aggregate and this is really the reality of the US labor market.


The CPI has undergone several changes, not just in relation to house prices, which ended up underestimating real inflation levels.

That is not an argument. On the contrary, it would be a very bad argument.

No. CPI does not take into account a variety of prices. I won't explain that again.

Still feeling remorse over the gold standard debate? Argue with economic theory on that subject, I have nothing more to say.

And about him using fixed data, he uses the original CPI data to calculate actual inflation today.

A little higher? William's alternative CPI calculation showed the US inflation rate rising to over 16% in spring 2022, or more than double the official CPI numbers. Is that low for you? haha
View attachment 134682
He uses the original CPI data to calculate inflation today. You seem to be

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fond of Investopedia for a source, if even the source you use cites Williams, I don't know why you're so dismissive of him.

John Williams is a hacker? I didn’t know. Tell us more about that. I know he has a degree in economics from Dartmouth College and an MBA, and he’s been a consultant and worked with Fortune 500 companies.

Also, as I said, the CPI has gone through a number of changes that have ended up underestimating the actual inflation rate, and it’s not just in real estate as I’ve said before, so I don’t really know what you’re trying to prove here.

And Williams is just one of many

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of the way the CPI is calculated today, he is just a drop in the ocean of criticism of the current CPI’s falsity.

I’ve known several people personally (Caucasian, black, and Chinese) who have been out of a job for more than 14 months. One of them I only know because he has gotten so desperate that his dad is asking literally everyone he knows for help. I didn’t know his dad but my dad is friends with his dad’s friend. Before any of you claim that he has no tech skills or something let me remind you that he has seven years of experience at a FAANG company prior to layoff. He is not only open to five days in the office but also to moving to a different state in case of an opening.

 

[HighGround]

As I said, believe what you want.

You need to interpret what is stated correctly and not take things literally.

This coming from a guy who is asking the following question?

Why are 28% of all adults looking for new jobs if the unemployment rate is below 5%?

Same reason anybody employed would be looking for a new job, but nice assumption.

Do you really think that 1/4 of all employed adults would be trying to find another job? This does not work in reality, but it is still a strong indicator that the official data is falsified, creating a much more unstable scenario than the data suggests, which is nothing new.

Uh yes. Is this a serious question? What, you think only unemployed people can look for a job?

In fact, a large part of them must also be looking for another job because the chances of layoffs must be quite high, considering the instability of the current job market.

So we moved the goalposts here. "Chances of layoffs" isn't unemployment, it's actually the exact opposite. You have to be employed to be laid off, or are we counting "might be unemployed soon" in your phony ShadowStats statistics?

As I said, the unemployment numbers are higher than the official aggregate and this is really the reality of the US labor market.


The CPI has undergone several changes, not just in relation to house prices, which ended up underestimating real inflation levels.

That is not an argument. On the contrary, it would be a very bad argument.

No. CPI does not take into account a variety of prices. I won't explain that again.

Still feeling remorse over the gold standard debate? Argue with economic theory on that subject, I have nothing more to say.

I don't see a coherent argument here.

And about him using fixed data, he uses the original CPI data to calculate actual inflation today.

A little higher? William's alternative CPI calculation showed the US inflation rate rising to over 16% in spring 2022, or more than double the official CPI numbers. Is that low for you? haha
View attachment 134682

William's CPI calculation is CPI-U + c? lmao. Well, I suppose he threw in a multiplier there, but the graph is indicative of what a phony Williams is. There is nothing rigorous or intellectual about his inflation calculation. He literally just adds a number on top of the official rate.

He uses the original CPI data to calculate inflation today. You seem to be

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fond of Investopedia for a source, if even the source you use cites Williams, I don't know why you're so dismissive of him.

John Williams is a hacker? I didn’t know. Tell us more about that. I know he has a degree in economics from Dartmouth College and an MBA, and he’s been a consultant and worked with Fortune 500 companies.

Also, as I said, the CPI has gone through a number of changes that have ended up underestimating the actual inflation rate, and it’s not just in real estate as I’ve said before, so I don’t really know what you’re trying to prove here.

And Williams is just one of many

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of the way the CPI is calculated today, he is just a drop in the ocean of criticism of the current CPI’s falsity.

There are legitimate criticisms of CPI and indeed there's many way to consider inflation and how it affects specific households.

But that's not what you did here.

Also, quoting ShadowStats is just... laughable and betrays an ignorance of... forget Economics. Just a basic logic and ability to reason. It betrays an inclination for conspiracy.

 

[zbb]

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, which allows room for manipulation. E.g., someone without a job and wants to work can still be labeled as not in the labor force and therefore not unemployed.

IMO, a better and more direct measure of employment is the employment to population ratio, which is simply the proportion of working age noninstitutional population that are employed.

US employment-to-population ratio for selected periods

Period	Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!	Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!	Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
2007 Q1 (before subprime crisis)	63.3 %	70.2 %	56.8 %
2019 Q4 (before COVID)	61.0 %	66.7 %	55.7 %
2024 Q2 (latest)	60.1 %	65.1 %	55.3 %

The overall US employment-to-population ratio is still below pre-COVID levels and even further below pre-subprime crisis levels.

Moreover, relative to pre-COVID and pre-subprime-crisis periods, the situation is notably worse for men than for women.

Since men on average work in higher paying jobs than women, a family where the husband lost his job and is unable to find a new one while the previously stay at home wife got a job to make ends meet will likely be worse off than before even though in the total number of jobs ledger this comes out as no change. Anecdotally, this happened to multiple families around me in the last couple of years.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

I’ve known several people personally (Caucasian, black, and Chinese) who have been out of a job for more than 14 months. One of them I only know because he has gotten so desperate that his dad is asking literally everyone he knows for help. I didn’t know his dad but my dad is friends with his dad’s friend. Before any of you claim that he has no tech skills or something let me remind you that he has seven years of experience at a FAANG company prior to layoff. He is not only open to five days in the office but also to moving to a different state in case of an opening.

I have some contacts with people who live in the US. I still have a distant relative who is there. He is extremely qualified and worked for a company that provides oil services to large oil companies in Texas. He was fired in 2022. He couldn't find a job in the same sector and started working for Uber until he found a new job, which he currently has. He found it because he was extremely qualified. It's very likely that he's still working for Uber at this time because the income he earned was much higher than what he earns now, and combined with the country's inflation expectations, it turns out that he must be working on weekends to supplement his income.

I've been to the US twice. When I went there for the first time in the last decade (2006), fast food was extremely cheap, compared to natural food in restaurants. This was a completely different reality from my country, where fast food is actually treated as less accessible and more expensive. When I visited the US for the second time, in 2012, prices were still practically the same. The price of Coca-Cola hadn't even increased. It was the same price as when I had visited the last time. This was a very different reality from my country, where we live with inflationary prices, where the purchasing power of the currency gets lower and lower when the country goes through bad economic situations. Everything the US is experiencing now is basically what countries with inflation experience: the harsh reality of having to do the math to go to the grocery store, although each country has its own characteristics.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I have some contacts with people who live in the US. I still have a distant relative who is there. He is extremely qualified and worked for a company that provides oil services to large oil companies in Texas. He was fired in 2022. He couldn't find a job in the same sector and started working for Uber until he found a new job, which he currently has. He found it because he was extremely qualified. It's very likely that he's still working for Uber at this time because the income he earned was much higher than what he earns now, and combined with the country's inflation expectations, it turns out that he must be working on weekends to supplement his income.

I've been to the US twice. When I went there for the first time in the last decade (2006), fast food was extremely cheap, compared to natural food in restaurants. This was a completely different reality from my country, where fast food is actually treated as less accessible and more expensive. When I visited the US for the second time, in 2012, prices were still practically the same. The price of Coca-Cola hadn't even increased. It was the same price as when I had visited the last time. This was a very different reality from my country, where we live with inflationary prices, where the purchasing power of the currency gets lower and lower when the country goes through bad economic situations. Everything the US is experiencing now is basically what countries with inflation experience: the harsh reality of having to do the math to go to the grocery store, although each country has its own characteristics.

What used to be considered normal for middle or even lower middle class is now exclusively relegated to upper middle class and above. There are parts of the country where you can earn six figs annually and struggle. This is not normal.

 

[chgough34]

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, which allows room for manipulation. E.g., someone without a job and wants to work can still be labeled as not in the labor force and therefore not unemployed.

IMO, a better and more direct measure of employment is the employment to population ratio, which is simply the proportion of working age noninstitutional population that are employed.

US employment-to-population ratio for selected periods

Period	Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!	Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!	Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
2007 Q1 (before subprime crisis)	63.3 %	70.2 %	56.8 %
2019 Q4 (before COVID)	61.0 %	66.7 %	55.7 %
2024 Q2 (latest)	60.1 %	65.1 %	55.3 %

The overall US employment-to-population ratio is still below pre-COVID levels and even further below pre-subprime crisis levels.

Moreover, relative to pre-COVID and pre-subprime-crisis periods, the situation is notably worse for men than for women.

Since men on average work in higher paying jobs than women, a family where the husband lost his job and is unable to find a new one while the previously stay at home wife got a job to make ends meet will likely be worse off than before even though in the total number of jobs ledger this comes out as no change. Anecdotally, this happened to multiple families around me in the last couple of years.

EPOP would be lower regardless since the >65 share of the U.S. population has been growing as the boomers age into retirement

 

[zbb]

Sure, US population is aging, but is that enough to explain the 5% drop in the proportion of employed men from 2007 to 2024? Why did the proportion of employed men drop so much more than for women? Do American women not age and retire?

 

[chgough34]

Prime age EPOP is ~90% so it seems like the labor market is fine

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[Franklin]

The FED is about to send what remains of the American middle class to the poorhouse. Those who are already in the poorhouse are going to struggle even more.

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[BoraTas]

The CES has upwards and downwards revisions all the time (and downwards corrections aren’t dispositive - if you have nonresponse bias - it’s very likely that response bias is going to lead to the signs on parameters being systematically biased, not randomly biased)

Upwards corrections: